Are you an idiot or just act like one? The person making the outrageous claims is responsible for proving their claims.
Quote from SteveH:
So Lucias, there's your "in". Take the challenge and prove she doesn't know what she's talking (with her own dog food, no less!). What's really going to freak you out though is that she's such a nice person, you could post your failures with it and, even then, she would give you pointers on how to improve your results.
Yes, I can predict the market and I'm willing to demonstrate it here, live, for a worthwhile and serious reward. I'm willing to make 100 directional trade calls in advance. The money would have to be put into an escrow, etc. I'm not wasting my time for anything less. But for sure, if Don Bright , black jack maverick, is up to it then sure (or any of the other well heeled sharks) anything is possible. Trust me, no one with a half a brain will challenge my abilities.
Now.. I want to show what NoDoji is claiming. She claimed that with 10k one could reasonably expect to do 90k in a year. We know things can vary and so we expect less then 5k drawdown (50%) then we get 5k max DD for 90k return which equals = 18x return. This will be similar to having an 18 Sharpe ratio. The best have Sharpe ratios around 2. Even Bone only claimed to do a 4 sharpe ratio....
Now she is also claiming to do this in crude, one of the most liquid contracts in the world. While I don't have an exact figure, we'll say that up to 10 million under management we shouldn't expect to see a huge performance hit. Even if we take a 50% performance hit, we're still hitting 9x returns.
What does this mean? This means that someone with a 100k account who is only willing to risk about 30% per year can expect to do 30/5 = 6*90 = 540k! Come on you tell m with this sort of record you're not willing to risk 30%? And you can keep hitting these returns up to 10 million. So if NoDoji has done this successfully for about 3-4 years, she should have oh about.. I don't know 4-5 million dollars.
I"m not saying its impossible. I do know that many successful traders do trade the 6E and Crude. These seem to be the contracts that most claim to be doing this in... however, everyone who's claimed this is offering training/mentoring/etc (I do too, for the record but don't make these claims). And not one person who I've offered to pay for records was interested.
There is a difference also in what is POSSIBLE and what can be expected. Yes, its possible to do 90k off 10k but is it reasonable to expect to do so? I contend no. If I hit a good stretch then I could do it..but to expect to do it means something you're hitting more then 6x out of 10x. This means 6x out of 10 years starting 10k = 90k. I'd like to see the evidence... Trust me, I train to be one of the best in the game of zero sum trading.. if this is true then I'd like to see such results..
NoDoji.. its true that Dr. Steenbarger wasn't right on everything. I grant you that. He also claimed he never seen a fund that used "retail methods" such as price action, fibs, etc be successful. I have used such methods to great success.. likewise, as noted, he dismissed my ability even though he knew it.. And I'm pretty sure I beat him on many calls.
