Why Can't I Trade with the Trend
- Thread starter Flashboy
- Start date
My rules actually call for not going long unless we are at support.. which today we were not..
Why I'm not following those rules is a psychological problem
Why I didn't look to get short today.. as my rules call for it.. psychological problem..
I pay close attention to LL's ..HH's.. my rules are supposed to account for those things..
problem today was .. started out with a short after the 9:45 est bar closed.. which didn't fail.. but market temporarily went up..never exceeding today's RTH's high.. but at that point.. after my short didn't work out.. something kicked in making me think we were definitely eventually going to go higher..
Its becoming more and more obvious to me that I just can't seem to do this.. and I've said that many times here before.. I"m at a loss..
Why I'm not following those rules is a psychological problem
Why I didn't look to get short today.. as my rules call for it.. psychological problem..
I pay close attention to LL's ..HH's.. my rules are supposed to account for those things..
problem today was .. started out with a short after the 9:45 est bar closed.. which didn't fail.. but market temporarily went up..never exceeding today's RTH's high.. but at that point.. after my short didn't work out.. something kicked in making me think we were definitely eventually going to go higher..
Its becoming more and more obvious to me that I just can't seem to do this.. and I've said that many times here before.. I"m at a loss..
Why don't you try cutting back on your size to the point that you really don't care if you're right or wrong. Just concentrate on following your rules.
Fear of loss.
There are two ways to handle it. First, simulator, Second small size.
Before you start, get your act together
You need to have a decent system edge and rules that fit your personality. You also have to come to terms with the reality that you may not be suited to trading. You may need to find something else to do. In your place, I would resolve to give it everything I had, knowing that at some point (you draw a line in the sand), I would have to make the decision to stop.
there are many good simulators. Try ButtonTrader.
You can use it to overcome the fear of pulling the trigger and to work the kinks out of your position sizing and money management system (You do have one right?)
Once you have practiced and you have some idea of what to expect from your system, you should trade small size, not to make money, but to desensitize yourself (you have become phobic about this). You want to enter and exit a number of times and see for yourself that you can handle it without trauma. You need to learn to handle spikes, news, and even breakdowns.
During this time, you should be adding to your account size, so that when you do trade "for real", you are not undercapitalized. This is the one thing that traders insist on doing that always kills them. Don't trade undercapitalized.
If you approach the work in a methodical way, you will be successful. If not, you will surely lose whatever money you have to trade. From my point of view you need to put it on the line and find out who you are. A while back, a coach named John Wooden said something about sports that applies to trading as well. "People think that competitive sports builds character, it doesn't. Competitive sport reveals character. You have it, or you don't".
You may want to find out where you stand sooner rather than later.
Good luck,
Lefty
There are two ways to handle it. First, simulator, Second small size.
Before you start, get your act together
You need to have a decent system edge and rules that fit your personality. You also have to come to terms with the reality that you may not be suited to trading. You may need to find something else to do. In your place, I would resolve to give it everything I had, knowing that at some point (you draw a line in the sand), I would have to make the decision to stop.
there are many good simulators. Try ButtonTrader.
You can use it to overcome the fear of pulling the trigger and to work the kinks out of your position sizing and money management system (You do have one right?)
Once you have practiced and you have some idea of what to expect from your system, you should trade small size, not to make money, but to desensitize yourself (you have become phobic about this). You want to enter and exit a number of times and see for yourself that you can handle it without trauma. You need to learn to handle spikes, news, and even breakdowns.
During this time, you should be adding to your account size, so that when you do trade "for real", you are not undercapitalized. This is the one thing that traders insist on doing that always kills them. Don't trade undercapitalized.
If you approach the work in a methodical way, you will be successful. If not, you will surely lose whatever money you have to trade. From my point of view you need to put it on the line and find out who you are. A while back, a coach named John Wooden said something about sports that applies to trading as well. "People think that competitive sports builds character, it doesn't. Competitive sport reveals character. You have it, or you don't".
You may want to find out where you stand sooner rather than later.
Good luck,
Lefty
After a couple of years in fx, i still don't get it :
1) In forex most of traders says these who writes books , can't trade by themselves. And we don't like them, calling them in a bad words. While in university or at school, we have to respect our teachers. It's one of the most respectful professions.
2) If we say books are almost useless in trading, than what about math, physics, biology books , why do we have to study from them, and we do not obtain by our selves all axiom, Pythagoras formulas . All formulas (in other fields) are several hundred years old , and we still use them.
3)why trading is so much uncorrelated with other fields?
1) In forex most of traders says these who writes books , can't trade by themselves. And we don't like them, calling them in a bad words. While in university or at school, we have to respect our teachers. It's one of the most respectful professions.
2) If we say books are almost useless in trading, than what about math, physics, biology books , why do we have to study from them, and we do not obtain by our selves all axiom, Pythagoras formulas . All formulas (in other fields) are several hundred years old , and we still use them.
3)why trading is so much uncorrelated with other fields?
Quote from nzbryant:
Aren't you managing people's money? Very disturbing if you dont know basic math and have to pass it along
Its called delegation of duties. Pretty common in the corporate world.
We had a recent example who built a huge fortune and didnt know anything about accounting.Yep, you're right, the guy (Bernie Ebbers) kept track of the number of toilet tissue rolls and whether people bought pizza on his tab, but never did get the hang of that gosh darn complicated accounting. Shucks. 
i don't believe your formulations are applicable to the issue at hand.
applying basic statistical measures like the serial correlation coefficient or the goodman independent time series test to most any market series, a trend is not in evidence--even in those cases were a MA indicates trending behavior. the tests show randomness in the data regardless of a "visual" illusionary trend.
You can either apply the accepted tests to the market data, or continue to believe whatever you wish.
I would love to see any data that refutes the above--- it would sure make my life easier
best wishes,