Why Can't I Trade with the Trend

Quote from NickelScalper:

If a "trend" does not extend over a minimum range of price, then it can't be distinguished from background noise.
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No jab intended Nickel. I just thought about a funny response to this and this thread needs a little humor.

If the water doesn't extend over ones toes, then it's quite hard to practice the back stroke . . . so find more water. Oh, I agree with your statement too.
 
Quote from ProfLogic:

I can't tell you of any statistical test because I doubt any exist. It has taken me almost 10 years to build mine. With the average attention span of a statistician being 2 weeks (I'm exaggerating) I doubt whether a model will ever be created by one.

Logisticians make jokes about statisticians. We say liars figure and figures lie.

I can't show you that trends exist using any commonly used tools for the same reason as I listed above. Hank, over the last 10 years this environment has changed drastically. Not in the way the market reacts but now with the technology we all possess we can study and see more of the price action and it nuances than ever before. Partially because the ranges have greatly expanded. We are able to study, up close and personal things we never saw 10 years ago. Look, the atom was a myth at one time and so was the electron, neutron and proton. There was a time when researchers talked about them and others thought they were crazy. So I'm a loon and loving every minute of it!
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Trend exits when the big fishes enter with their contracts. Rest of the time price moves between support and resistance. In the beginning all price actions look same from s/r and triangles. So, no one can predict where price is moving. So, you take educated guess with game theory and pray that it goes your way.

I agree there are nuances to recognize trend correctly, and you can master it with experience. Strictly discretionary traders can do that with times, computerized traders cannot. Its called instinct.
 
Quote from manzoor:

..., computerized traders cannot.
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Looks like you must be an expert in computerised/ automated trading for quite some time to recognise that. Are you so sure? :confused:
 
Quote from ktmexc20:

That's easy enough. The lack of a trend in a market that moves, is a physical improbability, ms.

dD / dt is the measure.

geometrically: y = mx + b where m provides the same as above.

There's also calculus versions.

With do respect to all, I find it hard to understand what the argument is.
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Hi ktm,

You are right if you start from the a priori assumption that "the Trend" (for markets) is a well defined mathematical entity. No need to talk about improbability, physical or not. It suffices to write down an expression for it. Nobody did this I believe.

You could perhaps say that "the Trend" is a moving average, specifying the kind and its parameter(s). In fact you would very close where you wanted to go with the above. Nobody dared to do this up till know, because people might say that he "doesn't know how to trade." Keeping "trend finding" in the "star gazing" domain is generally thought to be more respectable.

In the meantime, nononsense will keep laughing at "the Trend", especially at the truly crazy and pompous stuff. (ktm, I don't put you in this category)

nononsense
 
I'd like to continue with the statement, but the current prototype- i'm near finishing, beckons my attention. I'm anxious to complete it. Should go well... Structure is well enough crystalline. Shooting for next week.

cia
Ktm'r

Quote from nononsense:

Hi ktm,

You are right if you start from the a priori assumption that "the Trend" (for markets) is a well defined mathematical entity. No need to talk about improbability, physical or not. It suffices to write down an expression for it. Nobody did this I believe.

You could perhaps say that "the Trend" is a moving average, specifying the kind and its parameter(s). In fact you would very close where you wanted to go with the above. Nobody dared to do this up till know, because people might say that he "doesn't know how to trade." Keeping "trend finding" in the "star gazing" domain is generally thought to be more respectable.

In the meantime, nononsense will keep laughing at "the Trend", especially at the truly crazy and pompous stuff. (ktm, I don't put you in this category)

nononsense
More...
 
Quote from ProfLogic:

I can't tell you of any statistical test because I doubt any exist. It has taken me almost 10 years to build mine. With the average attention span of a statistician being 2 weeks (I'm exaggerating) I doubt whether a model will ever be created by one.

Logisticians make jokes about statisticians. We say liars figure and figures lie.

I can't show you that trends exist using any commonly used tools for the same reason as I listed above. Hank, over the last 10 years this environment has changed drastically. Not in the way the market reacts but now with the technology we all possess we can study and see more of the price action and it nuances than ever before. Partially because the ranges have greatly expanded. We are able to study, up close and personal things we never saw 10 years ago. Look, the atom was a myth at one time and so was the electron, neutron and proton. There was a time when researchers talked about them and others thought they were crazy. So I'm a loon and loving every minute of it!
More...


thank you for sharing your system.

best wishes for the future,

hank
 
Quote from ktmexc20:

That's easy enough. The lack of a trend in a market that moves, is a physical improbability, ms.

dD / dt is the measure.

geometrically: y = mx + b where m provides the same as above.

There's also calculus versions.

With do respect to all, I find it hard to understand what the argument is.
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thank you for the formulation. i'll pass your post along to one of my more erudite colleagues for comment.

best wishes !!
 
Quote from ktmexc20:

I'd like to continue with the statement, but the current prototype- i'm near finishing, beckons my attention. I'm anxious to complete it. Should go well... Structure is well enough crystalline. Shooting for next week.

cia
Ktm'r
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I've got to add... with a laugh...a sincere Thanks to all, for all the inspiration.
 
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