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Why Can't I Trade with the Trend
- Thread starter Flashboy
- Start date
even the heroes can't seem to do it...... trend follow
http://www.ljmfund.com/content/PDFs/Barclay_CTA_Rankings_Jan_31_2005.pdf
don't feel so bad that you cant follow the trend--the great john henry--hero to trend followers the world over reported a -2.89 % return, a sharpe ration of -.11 ( abysmal !) and a drawdown of 40.2%. if mr. henry CAN"T FIND THE TREND.... how do you expect to ?
wake up friends !
http://www.ljmfund.com/content/PDFs/Barclay_CTA_Rankings_Jan_31_2005.pdf
don't feel so bad that you cant follow the trend--the great john henry--hero to trend followers the world over reported a -2.89 % return, a sharpe ration of -.11 ( abysmal !) and a drawdown of 40.2%. if mr. henry CAN"T FIND THE TREND.... how do you expect to ?
wake up friends !
Quote from hank rollins:
even the heroes can't seem to do it...... trend follow
http://www.ljmfund.com/content/PDFs/Barclay_CTA_Rankings_Jan_31_2005.pdf
don't feel so bad that you cant follow the trend--the great john henry--hero to trend followers the world over reported a -2.89 % return, a sharpe ration of -.11 ( abysmal !) and a drawdown of 40.2%. if mr. henry CAN"T FIND THE TREND.... how do you expect to ?
wake up friends ! [/QUOTE
Hank aka marketsurfer,
give it a rest.
ACE Investment Strategists (+- $28 Million under management) do a decent job following the trend.
32.48% - 2004 Return
7.78% - Worst drowdown in 2004
55.75% - Compound 3 yr return
3.24 - Sharp ratio
168.08% - Best 12 month period
Wow:
This thread is really one of the most illuminating I have ever read anywhere as it relates to the problems that folks have learning to trade.
If you were going to try to trade, and you were capable of abstract thought, alarm bells would be going off as you read about the many ways people have found to lose money.
Another interesting point (for me anyway) is that there have been several posts that offer viable ways to "find" trend. Also, several posters have offered accurate comments as to the other issues that affect success once you find the trend you want to trade.
Recently I have heard some good (profitable) traders suggest that no matter how well you define trend and a method for trading it, you still have to manage the trade and get out with a profit. For me, this was the cornerstone of my progress, and once I "got it", I was profitable within a week.
I am sorry to hear of all the problems getting there. I hope someone or a few of you at least, will go back through this and some of the recent threads and find the clues that have been left you. From my point of view the answers are there in print.
Good luck,
Lefty
This thread is really one of the most illuminating I have ever read anywhere as it relates to the problems that folks have learning to trade.
If you were going to try to trade, and you were capable of abstract thought, alarm bells would be going off as you read about the many ways people have found to lose money.
Another interesting point (for me anyway) is that there have been several posts that offer viable ways to "find" trend. Also, several posters have offered accurate comments as to the other issues that affect success once you find the trend you want to trade.
Recently I have heard some good (profitable) traders suggest that no matter how well you define trend and a method for trading it, you still have to manage the trade and get out with a profit. For me, this was the cornerstone of my progress, and once I "got it", I was profitable within a week.
I am sorry to hear of all the problems getting there. I hope someone or a few of you at least, will go back through this and some of the recent threads and find the clues that have been left you. From my point of view the answers are there in print.
Good luck,
Lefty
Quote from nzbryant:
Why are people getting so angry? Look at yourselves.
Well stated nz.
If you read this massive thread in its entirety you will realise that most people are actually very well behaved - they might disagree but do NOT feel the need to belittle others or their views, and perhaps offer constructive criticism. Which is what these forums are all about.
I don't care if you use Quantum mechanics or look at the stars to trade. If you make money who am I to argue with your approach.
The stupid arguments remind me of religious fundamentalist fanatics - bereft of rational thought.
What you will find is that most of the crap on this thread is due to very few "in-duh-viduals" who have a crapload of posts to their name, yet all they do is attempt to belittle anyone else's views if in disagreement with theirs, and quite frankly have hardly ever offered anything that can be seen as constructive.
With that sort of mentality - not to mention textbook Cluster-B personality disorder traits - these guys must be real trading legends in their own little lunchboxes. :eek:
Lighten up and respect others. If some of you acted this way at a pub or nightclub, you'd get the crapola kicked out of you post haste. Its not rocket science...
Quote from Lefty62151:
Wow:
This thread is really one of the most illuminating I have ever read anywhere as it relates to the problems that folks have learning to trade.
Recently I have heard some good (profitable) traders suggest that no matter how well you define trend and a method for trading it, you still have to manage the trade and get out with a profit. For me, this was the cornerstone of my progress, and once I "got it", I was profitable within a week.
Well stated. Whatever method you trade, without money management all is lost.
Quote from ProfLogic:
Quote from hank rollins:
even the heroes can't seem to do it...... trend follow
http://www.ljmfund.com/content/PDFs/Barclay_CTA_Rankings_Jan_31_2005.pdf
don't feel so bad that you cant follow the trend--the great john henry--hero to trend followers the world over reported a -2.89 % return, a sharpe ration of -.11 ( abysmal !) and a drawdown of 40.2%. if mr. henry CAN"T FIND THE TREND.... how do you expect to ?
wake up friends ! [/QUOTE
Hank aka marketsurfer,
give it a rest.
ACE Investment Strategists (+- $28 Million under management) do a decent job following the trend.
32.48% - 2004 Return
7.78% - Worst drowdown in 2004
55.75% - Compound 3 yr return
3.24 - Sharp ratio
168.08% - Best 12 month period
sure professor. when trend following funds are succesful it's usually in a big way--- no argument here.
however, you can't point at one or two, or three big money funds that are currently experiencing success and say "look, trend following works".
AND--i will grant you, that i shouldn't point at a drawdown in one of the famous funds and make my statement---your point is taken-- stimulating discussing and ideas is my object--it's how i learn and improve myself.
please tell me one statistical test that can be applied to trends that indicates that the results of trend trading are any different than than random results. OR even statistically show that a trend even exists from commonly used tools in this field. any studies i have EVER seen clearly indicate that trend is illusionary.
thank you
Quote from hank rollins:
... show that a trend even exists from commonly used tools in this field. any studies i have EVER seen clearly indicate that trend is illusionary.
thank you
That's easy enough. The lack of a trend in a market that moves, is a physical improbability, ms.
dD / dt is the measure.
geometrically: y = mx + b where m provides the same as above.
There's also calculus versions.
With do respect to all, I find it hard to understand what the argument is.
Quote from hank rollins:
please tell me one statistical test that can be applied to trends that indicates that the results of trend trading are any different than than random results. OR even statistically show that a trend even exists from commonly used tools in this field. any studies i have EVER seen clearly indicate that trend is illusionary.
thank you
I can't tell you of any statistical test because I doubt any exist. It has taken me almost 10 years to build mine. With the average attention span of a statistician being 2 weeks (I'm exaggerating) I doubt whether a model will ever be created by one.
Logisticians make jokes about statisticians. We say liars figure and figures lie.
I can't show you that trends exist using any commonly used tools for the same reason as I listed above. Hank, over the last 10 years this environment has changed drastically. Not in the way the market reacts but now with the technology we all possess we can study and see more of the price action and it nuances than ever before. Partially because the ranges have greatly expanded. We are able to study, up close and personal things we never saw 10 years ago. Look, the atom was a myth at one time and so was the electron, neutron and proton. There was a time when researchers talked about them and others thought they were crazy. So I'm a loon and loving every minute of it!