Why Can't I Trade with the Trend

[ProfLogic]

Based on traditional methods, that is methods commonly used before 1996, trends were less obvious and therefore dismissed as aberrations and inconsequential. But since 1996 the trend ranges that play out in the market; yearly, monthly, weekly, daily and on an intraday basis have become more obvious and readable making them easier to study and define.

Prior to 1996 few individuals had access to the amount of data necessary to come to any conclusions in regard to the systematic movement of price in any Market. This has led to the creation of research I will call the "The Physics of Electronic Market Price Movement". A Rules based system of visually defining a trend on any chart based in an electronic environment where a momentum indicator is used to confirm oscillation tops and bottoms.

A defined trend exists. Defined consolidation exists. A defined trend exists until it fails (failure is specifically defined). A defined trend migrates into consolidation. Defined consolidation migrates into the continuation of the previous defined trend or a new defined trend. A defined trend migrates into a new trend. PERIOD!

 

[ProfLogic]

Quote from NickelScalper:

What is your definition of trend that does not include quantity of up or down direction over time?

I should have said that Slopes do not define trends they are simply a by-product of them.

 

[OddTrader]

Would it be possible that different traders could, for some individual reasons, use various names such as trends/ levels/ points/ heights/ supports/ waves/ etc. to call/ refer to the same/ similar sort of particular price movements/ patterns?

 

[NickelScalper]

Quote from ProfLogic:

A defined trend exists until it fails...

Sufficient data to predict the failure point of a "trend" is not contained in the chart of the "trend."

 

[ProfLogic]

Quote from NickelScalper:

Sufficient data to predict the failure point of a "trend" is not contained in the chart of the "trend."

One needs not to predict the price point at which failure occurs, one need only to define the specific action needed to confirm that failure IS occuring at either a minor or extreme level.

 

[NickelScalper]

Quote from ProfLogic:

One needs not to predict the price point at which failure occurs, one need only to define the specific action needed to confirm that failure IS occuring at either a minor or extreme level.

Sufficient data to predict the extent of the reversal of a "trend" is not contained in the chart of the "trend" approaching failure point.

 

[ktmexc20]

Quote from ProfLogic:

Trends have nothing to do with slope. Slope is a by-product of the trend and has nothing to do with the continuation of the trend.

Excuse me... Prof, from my understanding, the slope is the most fundamental, derivational aspect of any "trend"(other than the individual dimensions themselves of course.

With respect, I humbly suggest you dig out your text books.

 

[ktmexc20]

Quote from ProfLogic:

I should have said that Slopes do not define trends they are simply a by-product of them.

I'm commenting as I go along here on prior posts.

Prof, I've have respect for your generally apparent, analytical approach to trading...

But I believe this is totally erroneous and backwards.

 

[ktmexc20]

Quote from ProfLogic:

One needs not to predict the price point at which failure occurs, one need only to define the specific action needed to confirm that failure IS occurring at either a minor or extreme level.

I really do hate the word prediction in reference to trading...

But there is also what I will call controlled prediction, where the confidence and error of probability is calculated and utilized as a tool (bands).

As a tool, projection (LR&bands aka: trend channel) can be used to scope out the possibilities, where by an anticipation of events can then be considered.

 

[easyrider]

Quote from ktmexc20:

Excuse me... Prof, from my understanding, the slope is the most fundamental, derivational aspect of any "trend"(other than the individual dimensions themselves of course.

With respect, I humbly suggest you dig out your text books.

I hadnt really thought too much about it before but a trend does not neccessarily have to have a slope if you take the standard definition i.e: 1 a : to extend in a general direction : follow a general course : ; so a market moving sideways could also be said to be trending. However if you use the Dow definiton of higher highs and higher lows then slope would seem to be a prerequisite.