Why Can't I Trade with the Trend

[ProfLogic]

Quote from NickelScalper:

The tide moves about a constant level.

Not so with market prices.

The tide is not constant. Every High tide is different from it's last and every Low tide is different from it's last and every High Tide is proportionally different from the last sequential Low tide and every Low tide is proportionally different from it's last High tide. But the tide's trend is determined by plotting the high tide and low tide levels making higher highs & higher lows or lower highs and lower lows.
Wow, that sounds really familiar . . . where have I heard that before.
Market prices mirror this action due to being born out of the same type of random chaotic environment as anything else effected by the Laws of Physics.

 

[NickelScalper]

Quote from BSAM:

LOL!!! Just thought we'd have a little fun this afternoon! I'll clarify it just for you.

Here's the non-obscure version (I suddenly snapped out of the trance):

ARE YOU SAYING THAT SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE DON'T WORK???!!!???

That depends on how you use them.

If you and 5,000 other traders and a few dozen black boxes are using the same approach, then good luck, you're going to need it.

 

[BSAM]

Quote from NickelScalper:

That depends on how you use them.

If you and 5,000 other traders and a few dozen black boxes are using the same approach, then good luck, you're going to need it.

Well, here's how it works: The smart money VERY OFTEN buys at support and sells at resistance. Then they exercise appropriate money management principles and take into consideration market conditions, etc., etc. See, it's not such a mystery, as some here would have lots of newbies believe. But then, I don't have a website or any newsletters or similar propaganda to sell anyone. No, I'm not saying you do, either. I wouldn't really know. But lots who show up here do.

 

[ProfLogic]

Quote from nononsense:

Sounds great!
But why else would you want to "read" price action (as you call it) than to place an order based on it and profit from it. Ain't that predicting? If you prefer call it divining or prophetizing.

Come on Prof? Logic?
Mumbo Jumbo.

NOnonSENSE,

First you have to understand and trust that trends exist and can be acted on in realtime. That isn't faith-based, that is a learned trait. Something that takes dedication, desire and patience.

Based on "A" specific "Time"frame, the E-mini S&P (for example) has been in a CONFIRMED uptrend since May of 2003, constantly, consistently and sequentially making Higher Resistance Highs and Higher Support Lows. A Bull Trend by the most elementary definitions of the term. By strictly defining the Minor oscillations in-between those longer term Higher Resistance Highs and Higher Support Lows, a trader can "READ" the minor Support failures as ultra-conservative buying opportunities to challenge the last sequential minor & longer term Resistance highs.
Price will continue to make higher highs and higher lows until price creates specific & sequential lower Resistance highs & lower Support lows breaking the Bull trend and turning it bearish.

Price will go up until it confirms it will not go up any further . . . then it will go down.
Price will then go down until it confirms it will not go down any further . . . then it will go up.
Forever
and ever
and ever and ever

 

[NickelScalper]

Quote from ProfLogic:

The tide is not constant. Every High tide is different from it's last and every Low tide is different from it's last and every High Tide is proportionally different from the last sequential Low tide and every Low tide is proportionally different from it's last High tide. But the tide's trend is determined by plotting the high tide and low tide levels making higher highs & higher lows or lower highs and lower lows.

The tide oscillates to either side of a constant depth.

When the water is going up, you may not know how far it will go, but there's always the reference line to which the level must return and then continue from there downward.

Markets don't act like that.

 

[ProfLogic]

Quote from NickelScalper:

The tide oscillates to either side of a constant depth.

When the water is going up, you may not know how far it will go, but there's always the reference line to which the level must return and then continue from there downward.

Markets don't act like that.

The constant depth of the Markets are total of the contracts traded within it. High tide and Low tide is the RANGE of the tides NOT the depth too.

And the Markets DO act JUST like that. Take your sentence above and replace the word water with price and spend a day at the ocean watching the waves through 2 full cycles of High and Low tides. Then tell me that action doesn't exist in the Market. You won't believe it till you do it.

 

[BA_Trader]

Quote from Lefty62151:

Please do continue to give each other "written" surfing lessons. Its very entertaining to watch.

Lefty

I've often thought that learning to trade through reading (books,
posts, or what have you) is similar to learning to dance by
looking at a series of still pictures.

btw - IMO you are a huge boost to the collective intelligence of
ET.

<IMG SRC=http://elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=704028>

 

[nononsense]

Quote from BSAM:

Well, here's how it works: The smart money VERY OFTEN buys at support and sells at resistance. Then they exercise appropriate money management principles and take into consideration market conditions, etc., etc. See, it's not such a mystery, as some here would have lots of newbies believe. But then, I don't have a website or any newsletters or similar propaganda to sell anyone. No, I'm not saying you do, either. I wouldn't really know. But lots who show up here do.

Hey BSAM:

Don't bring in that other sacred cow: 'MM'. Like Pete already said: enough is enough.

Of course, "the TREND", support, resistance and even MM make sense for each of us individually. (At least for those not in the 95% segment chipping in for the profits of the few).

As my approach is 100% 'mechanized decision making', I indeed deal with what I would prefer to call 'decision variables' that enter into my approach.

Of course, I could call some variables trend1, trend2, support1, etc. What you call trend may be vaguely related to what I labelled as trend2, but I wouldn't want to risk a penny on your trend before I understood what you were talking about. If your trend works well for you, you should be out of your mind to fill me in on its working. I wouldn't either.

This kind of sums it up.
Be good,
nononsense

 

[NickelScalper]

Quote from BSAM:

Well, here's how it works: The smart money VERY OFTEN buys at support and sells at resistance.

If it was public knowledge what the "smart money" is doing, then everyone would be doing it.

 

[BSAM]

Quote from NickelScalper:

If it was public knowledge what the "smart money" is doing, then everyone would be doing it.

I figured you already knew. You seem like a pretty bright person. However, figuring out where S/R is. Well, that's sometimes not so easy for some to figure out. I mean the basic premise is fairly simple. I think a lot of people mess up in the area of money management. (Sorry for mentioning MM nononsense, but in the spirit of "nononsense" here on this thread, I'm just trying to add some clarity.)