Why Can't I Trade with the Trend

[oktiri]

Quote from steve0617:

I think the point I'm making about emotions and the point some of the others are making about technicals are both correct. IMO, one cannot have control of one without control of the other. You could have drawn charts with golf pencils until your fingers bleed but if you can't manage the trade because of your overwhelming fear of loss that you close out a trade before the real move, you'll never survive, assuming that's your trading methodology.

I'm pretty happy I closed a trade today because it exceeded my loss limit..otherwise, I'd be poorer typing these lines...
I thought that averaging down was one of the biggest errors newbies make, fear is quite an important part of successful trading as long as keep it under control and not the other way

 

[nkhoi]

Quote from easyrider:

HE LIVES!!! Welcome back Jack.

OMG

 

[Huios]

Quote from steve0617:

....one cannot have control of one without control of the other.

This is such a true statement for me.

I had to get the technicals of trend following first, then tackle the emotions of trading with the trend. I still find myself occasionally not pulling the trigger on a valid setup, only to find that i missed the "Trade of the Day" (ie the 50 pip run of the euro starting around 11:20 yesterday). But not as much as several weeks ago.

Now that my emotions are a little more under control, earlier this week i found myself tearing apart my system and rebuilding it from the ground up. It's sleeker, simpler, exact entries instead of vague, targets, runners, more specific exits, fewer rules, etc. but still has the same premises. (and i really thought i had a good plan initially, three revisions ago)

And I am only allowing myself to execute one piece at a time, doing that piece well, in essence, "earning" the right to trade the complete system.

So as one aspect gets stronger, it points out weakness in the other. strengthen those weakness, and you get new insights into the former... and so on, and so on.

Good Trading

H

 

[ktmexc20]

Quote from nzbryant:

Grob

You add a lot of value, but it's difficult when you use lingo noone else uses. Pin-wheels? No idea what that means.

I laugh when when I think about the first thing I said him:

Quote from ktmexc20:
06-15-04 03:21 PM

With all intended respect Jack, you have a natural tendency to, or a designed desire to, confuse your readers. I know that, I (for one) would greatly appreciate you making an honest effort to be more concise in the conveyance of your wisdom. I think that I can represent others, in saying that...

deriving useful information from you... is like fighting a geyser to get to the gold.

lol, Jack seems to really enjoy utilizing his CLM (cognitive learning model). We know he rarely gives an explicit reply.

For help with any clarifications you could use these sources: ET search; Thefreedictionary.com(& encyclopedia); and Google.. amongst others .

Thought provocation/association is the name game.

Lingo:
I think the pinwheel is an invention to keep the mind from being overwhelmed. It's a pretty neat expression, and is adequately descriptive.. kind of like the color of light.. or lack of light. It could also be described as a factory-all compressor that gives the minimal amount of psi needed to get the job done (ie,24:2 or 192:16). But, it's only turned on when needed, and as a pre-requisite, it's regulated, so as to not blow out the o-rings or clog the filter.... lol. Since the pinwheel is simplex, I think the current challenge for learning is, the appropriation of ordinal altitudes. I mean attitudes...What ever.

Ktm'r

 

[easyrider]

Quote from nzbryant:

Grob

You add a lot of value, but it's difficult when you use lingo noone else uses. Pin-wheels? No idea what that means.

My guess that he is talking about something like this:

 

[murray t turtle]

Quote from Flashboy:

Every trend day or period like the last 3 days I always have trouble trading with the trend.

I'm always looking for that turning point so I can hop on for the big score..

I most likely need to work on my plan for trading with the trend.. and force myself to do it until I become more comfortable..

Anyone else have this problem? [/QUOTE

=========

Flashboy;

Every trend day in a bull market is bigtime different;
from the rather steep pullbacks [counter trends] this week,
evident on 20 day or 1year chart.

Yes you need to work on plan because picking tops, bottoms;
differs bigtime from trading with trend.

Airlines[LUV sector in mostly downtrends, most all timeframes];
QQQQ mostly sideways trends on 20 day charts and sideways trends [ranges] good for brokers, option sellers, not my favorite.

DIA SPY,TOL, TONS sectors still in bull market [uptrends] but ;
pulback s[countertrends ] were notably more than usual.





This week was also highly unusual in TONS sector, IBD[Investors Business Daily] had some fundamental info on charts and think the fundamantalists maybe were shocked at info on charts.

Chart showed scrap steel downtrending from $400 downtrending to about $200/ton

 

[murray t turtle]

Quote from steve0617:

Lefty,

While I do agree with your statements that the prep work is mandatory, but, at least for me, and I'd bet the vast majority of traders, is, when is the information enough?

When do you know enough to be able to feel that you've gotten it? Because that could take an entire career. And you'll still never make any real money .....

========

re; doing years of research /trading work

Even though I 'm right handed, Lefty is right;
doing years of work is the tough part, because trading is harder than just knowing probabliities on trends & shorter
countertrends or sideways trends [ranges].

Steve you had a good point because info is never enough;
without actually doing like, actually trading with trend,/plan or occasional countertrends, info is never enough.

Plan written would have to include basic differences between trend/countertrend and so on.

 

[NickelScalper]

The trend that takes place before position entry is not where the money is made.

Whatever price trend is going to follow position entry is not usefully predictable based on price trend before that point, using any standard method.

If it was, efficiency theory says that the difference between current price and predictable future price would be closed almost instantly, and there would not be an exploitable opportunity there.

So that's why trading the trend is difficult.

 

[Flashboy]

Quote from Pabst:

Since there's so many trend guru's here, please enlighten me. What's the trend in ES right now.

I mean this is asinine. The overall trend is up. Unless you consider a 2% correction a crash. The weekly trend is down. We are below the 21 and 34 hourly Ma's. Yet today the action was bullish and the market will probably open higher to-morrow.

So WHICH trend is the REAL trend?

Pabst,

Since I trade intraday I was referring to the intermediate trend.. the 30 min. trend which was down.. but yes the daily trend has been up..

 

[Flashboy]

Quote from steve0617:

Look beneath the surface people!

The problem he is having is NOT technical. It's emotional. If he REALLY would admit why he does what he does, it's because of fear. Fear of missing out of the entire turn and fear cause by the perception of lack of abundance.

Think about it. If he TRULY believed that he could catch some of the trend and not miss out on all of it, and that that's is OK!, he wouldn't be trying to buy bottoms and sell tops.

If he TRULY knew there was another trading opportunity coming soon that will be tradeable (which there ALWAYS is - it's just is he ready for it again?), he wouldn't force the trade to try and pick off the exact correct entry.

Flashboy, this isn't about technicals. It's all fear. If you would give yourself permission to miss out on some of the move, then you might settle yourself down and stop fighting your urge to trade simply because you're afraid you're missing out and leaving money on the table. Because "my GOD! Look at it go! I am failing because I am not trading! I must predict the big turn so I can make myself feel better with this next trade because I didn't pull the trigger on the current one!"

Sound familiar to you? It did for the old me.

Steve,

You couldn't be more right.. and I have gotten much much better with this.. I used to be horrible about it.. and my plan now calls to only buy bottoms if at support and a true reversal signal is present..

I do know now that I can wait for the market to show me its turning and still grab a nice trade after it has turned.. but I do miss out on good continuation trades with the trend because I am too concerned with when/where the market will reverse..