Why Can't I Trade with the Trend

[oktiri]

Quote from Lefty62151:

Yep, emotion is a problem for most traders. I would say 95% of folks posting aren't in control of their emotions when they trade.

As for what the "real" problem is, unfortunately it is technical. Since humans have difficulty controlling emotion, the best way to remove that influence is to do your homework. If a trader knows (because he/she has done the work) that they have an edge, and they know what to expect (at the end of the week for instance), it would be less of an emotional trial, and more like pulling the handle on a slot machine.

So what you are seeing here (and it is true of many if not most retail traders) is the emotional ordeal people go through when they haven't done the prep work. Similar to the feeling one gets when they are sitting in class waitng to take finals, but they haven't studied at all

For me the truth of the matter is that we all have a choice to make, and eventually the market will make you choose. Either get your act together, and get an edge (do the homework), or it will be such an emotional ordeal that you will not want to do it anymore, or you will lose your money and you won't be able to do it anymore.

Lefty

depends on what you're trading, sometimes no amount of homework will help you.

 

[steve0617]

Quote from Lefty62151:

Yep, emotion is a problem for most traders. I would say 95% of folks posting aren't in control of their emotions when they trade.

As for what the "real" problem is, unfortunately it is technical. Since humans have difficulty controlling emotion, the best way to remove that influence is to do your homework. If a trader knows (because he/she has done the work) that they have an edge, and they know what to expect (at the end of the week for instance), it would be less of an emotional trial, and more like pulling the handle on a slot machine.

So what you are seeing here (and it is true of many if not most retail traders) is the emotional ordeal people go through when they haven't done the prep work. Similar to the feeling one gets when they are sitting in class waiting to take finals, but they haven't studied at all

For me the truth of the matter is that we all have a choice to make, and eventually the market will make you choose. Either get your act together, and get an edge (do the homework), or it will be such an emotional ordeal that you will not want to do it anymore, or you will lose your money and you won't be able to do it anymore.

Lefty

Lefty,

While I do agree with your statements that the prep work is mandatory, but, at least for me, and I'd bet the vast majority of traders, is, when is the information enough? When do you know enough to be able to feel that you've gotten it? Because that could take an entire career. And you'll still never make any real money because you would still act improperly because of one's uncontrolled emotions.

Obviously, if the tech side of a technical trader is lacking, no control of emotions is needed as you're not proficient enough to even begin to trade with real money. But once you've got a grip on at least *enough* tech skills to get going, you're going to run into your own head time and time again until you figure out what your particular hangups are.

 

[electron]

Quote from Lefty62151:

Yep, emotion is a problem for most traders. I would say 95% of folks posting aren't in control of their emotions when they trade.

As for what the "real" problem is, unfortunately it is technical. Since humans have difficulty controlling emotion, the best way to remove that influence is to do your homework. If a trader knows (because he/she has done the work) that they have an edge, and they know what to expect (at the end of the week for instance), it would be less of an emotional trial, and more like pulling the handle on a slot machine.

So what you are seeing here (and it is true of many if not most retail traders) is the emotional ordeal people go through when they haven't done the prep work. Similar to the feeling one gets when they are sitting in class waitng to take finals, but they haven't studied at all

For me the truth of the matter is that we all have a choice to make, and eventually the market will make you choose. Either get your act together, and get an edge (do the homework), or it will be such an emotional ordeal that you will not want to do it anymore, or you will lose your money and you won't be able to do it anymore.

Lefty

Could not agree more... Unfortunately, most people are either too lazy or simply too dumb to do their homework and instead they perpetuate the myth of emotional problems.

 

[Wallace]

One has the expectation the price will travel from here to there, and having reached its objective, change direction. Even without EW labeling, using a channel or pitchfork tool or just a couple of straight lines easily defines the trend. Applying fibo levels clearly illustrates how price movement interacts with significant levels even over long periods — the White fibo levels. Time targets can be obtained by Bar Counting with Fibonacci or Lucas numbers. Simple tools able to be applied to any timeframe to define the trend, its end, and beginnings. Trend changes offer the earliest opportunity to begin a trade. As the White Close MA illustrates particularly at the 2002/3 lows, such entries can be problematic, often Reversal formations occur first and large single bar price ranges can cause Stopped out trades. Another signal may be when one feels the most anxious, it's time to make the trade; alternately, the more accurate the trend direction identification, the greater the desensitization of anxiety, the greater one's trading confidence.

 

[Pabst]

Quote from ProfLogic:

No offense Pabst but did you read what you wrote? Trends exist in whatever timeframe you are trading in and they are different for each chart created.
The ES Long Term Trend (since May of 2003) is Bullish.
The ES Trend since January 2005 is Bullish.
The ES Trend since Monday, 03/07 was Bearish and as of the close today and the confirmation of the bottom, we will be Bullish till we confirm the 1229.75 top.

Confidence in one's trading comes from seeing the consistency of the trend play out perfectly each day, not thinking and just trading in the direction you KNOW price will go.

The point I'm making is Flashboy started a thread beating himself up for being long yesterday on a trend day down. As a matter of fact I was short coming in not because I was going with the trend but because I was FADING the true trend. Thus you have a case of Pabst being anti trend beating Flashboy who was positioned with the macro-trend but out of sync with the day trend. ON TOP OF IT, only an asshole like me would have ADDDED in the midst of that SEVEN POINT RALLY mid morning. I'ver been trading every day for 22 years. The point I'm making is trends are TIME SPECIFIC. I know you agree so I'm not being argumentive.

 

[electron]

Quote from steve0617:

Lefty,

While I do agree with your statements that the prep work is mandatory, but, at least for me, and I'd bet the vast majority of traders, is, when is the information enough?

When you get there you will know this. It takes some time, usually more than most people would like to believe it and so no wonder that so many of them end up selling their 'methods' instead of trading them. If they got there, they would choose trading instead of peddling their 'knowledge'. As the well known saying goes 'those who know do, those who don't teach'...

 

[Grob109]

Quote from oktiri:

depends on what you're trading, sometimes no amount of homework will help you.

You are getting lousy homework assignments from someone.

Some teachers go to school to learn to teach. Other teachers go to school to learn the subject they will teach.

Here is an assignment for a money maker:

Do a MLR line and do a long diagonal. How far into the trade does convergence become divergence?

Do a pin wheel out of three different moving average lines; when does the pin wheel reverse direction?

What would happen if you if you knew the first two derivatives of price with respect to volume? A little symmetry showing up here and there??

You need to do homework that gives you a full range of biochemical releases to keep those memory traces all oiled up for monitoring. If you are blasting your brain with only the "looser" biochemicals you are just building a "flee" mentality. It is irreversable after a while.

Everytime flashboy "buys it" trading he needs to jog until he eats at a regular sitting again. Hours and hours of cleansing.

How do you go from your regular memory processes to your sports memory????

 

[ProfLogic]

Quote from Pabst:

The point I'm making is Flashboy started a thread beating himself up for being long yesterday on a trend day down. As a matter of fact I was short coming in not because I was going with the trend but because I was FADING the true trend. Thus you have a case of Pabst being anti trend beating Flashboy who was positioned with the macro-trend but out of sync with the day trend. ON TOP OF IT, only an asshole like me would have ADDDED in the midst of that SEVEN POINT RALLY mid morning. I'ver been trading every day for 22 years. The point I'm making is trends are TIME SPECIFIC. I know you agree so I'm not being argumentive.

Yipeeee . . . . I have found traders that agree . . . my life is complete.

 

[nzbryant]

Grob

You add a lot of value, but it's difficult when you use lingo noone else uses. Pin-wheels? No idea what that means.

 

[steve0617]

I think the point I'm making about emotions and the point some of the others are making about technicals are both correct. IMO, one cannot have control of one without control of the other. You could have drawn charts with golf pencils until your fingers bleed but if you can't manage the trade because of your overwhelming fear of loss that you close out a trade before the real move, you'll never survive, assuming that's your trading methodology.