Why Can't I Trade with the Trend

Hello:
I think folks make this way too hard. Start by looking at a weekly chart of the SPX. I count 9 "trend changes". It was a choppy market all year long. I don't like trading that price action, so I move down a notich. Look at a daily chart of the SPX. On that chart January was clearly a downtrending month, February in an uptrend and we don't (in my opinion) have enough data to make a decision on March yet. In my view, this is still a choppy market, and again, I don't like to trade that action, so I move down a notch. Looking at 60 min bars, I start to see tradeable "trends". that I can do something with. This tells me I am going to like trading short multi-day swings, and maybe intraday.

Currently I am making money using this framework. I have an ongoing presence in the market with a multi-day position, and I trade around that position intraday. One hedges the other.

Now people can complain about the classroom definition of "trend" if they want to. I get paid to trade price. So I am looking for whatever helps me to identify a tradeable trend long enough to overcome expenses and make a living. So far this year, that is 2-3 day swings, and intraday.

I hope this helps somebody.
Lefty
 
Quote from Lefty62151:

Hello:
I think folks make this way too hard. Start by looking at a weekly chart of the SPX. I count 9 "trend changes". It was a choppy market all year long. I don't like trading that price action, so I move down a notich. Look at a daily chart of the SPX. On that chart January was clearly a downtrending month, February in an uptrend and we don't (in my opinion) have enough data to make a decision on March yet. In my view, this is still a choppy market, and again, I don't like to trade that action, so I move down a notch. Looking at 60 min bars, I start to see tradeable "trends". that I can do something with. This tells me I am going to like trading short multi-day swings, and maybe intraday.

Currently I am making money using this framework. I have an ongoing presence in the market with a multi-day position, and I trade around that position intraday. One hedges the other.

Now people can complain about the classroom definition of "trend" if they want to. I get paid to trade price. So I am looking for whatever helps me to identify a tradeable trend long enough to overcome expenses and make a living. So far this year, that is 2-3 day swings, and intraday.

I hope this helps somebody.
Lefty
More...

I dig your style.
 
Trend is determined within a timeframe between beginning and ending points.

Regarding the P/L of a trade, these two points are 1) position entry and 2) position exit. The trend between them is what counts.

Any previous or following trends are only worth looking at insofar as they can be used to determine the trend you are most concerned about.
 
Look beneath the surface people!

The problem he is having is NOT technical. It's emotional. If he REALLY would admit why he does what he does, it's because of fear. Fear of missing out of the entire turn and fear cause by the perception of lack of abundance.

Think about it. If he TRULY believed that he could catch some of the trend and not miss out on all of it, and that that's is OK!, he wouldn't be trying to buy bottoms and sell tops.

If he TRULY knew there was another trading opportunity coming soon that will be tradeable (which there ALWAYS is - it's just is he ready for it again?), he wouldn't force the trade to try and pick off the exact correct entry.

Flashboy, this isn't about technicals. It's all fear. If you would give yourself permission to miss out on some of the move, then you might settle yourself down and stop fighting your urge to trade simply because you're afraid you're missing out and leaving money on the table. Because "my GOD! Look at it go! I am failing because I am not trading! I must predict the big turn so I can make myself feel better with this next trade because I didn't pull the trigger on the current one!"

Sound familiar to you? It did for the old me.
 
Quote from NickelScalper:

Trend is determined within a timeframe between beginning and ending points.

Regarding the P/L of a trade, these two points are 1) position entry and 2) position exit. The trend between them is what counts.

Any previous or following trends are only worth looking at insofar as they can be used to determine the trend you are most concerned about.
More...
No, there is always 3 to remember there are 2 outs 1 in ...........
 
Quote from Pabst:

Since there's so many trend guru's here, please enlighten me. What's the trend in ES right now.

I mean this is asinine. The overall trend is up. Unless you consider a 2% correction a crash. The weekly trend is down. We are below the 21 and 34 hourly Ma's. Yet today the action was bullish and the market will probably open higher to-morrow.

So WHICH trend is the REAL trend?
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No offense Pabst but did you read what you wrote? Trends exist in whatever timeframe you are trading in and they are different for each chart created.
The ES Long Term Trend (since May of 2003) is Bullish.
The ES Trend since January 2005 is Bullish.
The ES Trend since Monday, 03/07 was Bearish and as of the close today and the confirmation of the bottom, we will be Bullish till we confirm the 1229.75 top.

Confidence in one's trading comes from seeing the consistency of the trend play out perfectly each day, not thinking and just trading in the direction you KNOW price will go.
 
Quote from Lefty62151:

Hello:

snip.......

Currently I am making money using this framework. I have an ongoing presence in the market with a multi-day position, and I trade around that position intraday. One hedges the other.

Snip

I get paid to trade price.

snip

So far this year, that is 2-3 day swings, and intraday.

I hope this helps somebody.
Lefty
More...

fastboy...this is a major clue for you. It willl hekp you greatly by smashing your current makeup to smithereens. Then you even get to see the virtue of protecting everything (this is what hedge means).

We are telling you that the trend line is not where you look.

We are telling you that opposite the trend line there is another parallel line which is exactly where the place on the chart happens to be where trend overlaps begin.

Trends overlap.

There was a person here a while back who did not understand that both lines were drawn at the beginning of a trend. So he chatted only about the one that did not matter using lingo to the hilt.

Intraday trading between the lines teaches you to discover when to do a reversal on your postion trade exactly at the beginning of the trend overlap.

The trapezoid formed by a trend envelope has a long and short diagonal. We are double teaming you here (A pro and an amateur) to get you to see the long diagonal is what is postition traded to hit position home runs. intraday trading across this diagonal by seeing it as the carrier for the intraday oscillations is very relaxing. It is so periodic and crystal clear.

Naturally there is a leading indicator of the price that you use to be especially keen.

It is boldest at the end of a long diagonal (which incidentally is the beginning of the next long diagonal). All, even in lateral trends between long and short trends.

Lefty and I are smoking hot on this one for your benefit. He knows that I am left handed as well. It is a characteristic of our kind.

Did you read that AMTSWA stuff from your three ring binder yet???
 
Quote from steve0617:

Look beneath the surface people!

The problem he is having is NOT technical. It's emotional.
More...

Steve, you are an observant man.

To fix your problem, when you are comfortably in "Trend", execute orders in that direction and immediately exit after taking a tick or two. Do that consistently and successfully 100 times. After exiting the trade, watch it play out to where you would have normally exited based on "how you trade". After evaluating those 100 consecutive and successful trades and will be cured and pissed you didn't stay in most of them longer.
 
Yep, emotion is a problem for most traders. I would say 95% of folks posting aren't in control of their emotions when they trade.

As for what the "real" problem is, unfortunately it is technical. Since humans have difficulty controlling emotion, the best way to remove that influence is to do your homework. If a trader knows (because he/she has done the work) that they have an edge, and they know what to expect (at the end of the week for instance), it would be less of an emotional trial, and more like pulling the handle on a slot machine.

So what you are seeing here (and it is true of many if not most retail traders) is the emotional ordeal people go through when they haven't done the prep work. Similar to the feeling one gets when they are sitting in class waitng to take finals, but they haven't studied at all :D

For me the truth of the matter is that we all have a choice to make, and eventually the market will make you choose. Either get your act together, and get an edge (do the homework), or it will be such an emotional ordeal that you will not want to do it anymore, or you will lose your money and you won't be able to do it anymore.

Lefty
 
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