Why Can't I Trade with the Trend

Quote from Jane Doe:

Past price does influence future price action (duh). Imagine a completely random price action.. would you rely upon it? Would you risk your money on it? Of course not, traders/investors rely on a small but certain non-randomness to the markets. This teeny tiny "predictability" underlies all markets without which would completely collapse. Withot any structure the entire system collapses. Why would anyone trade a completely random system.. Would you trade a coin flip?? Of course not.. duh :confused: :confused:
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The logic of your statement is faulty.

To say that future price action is not determined by past price action does not mean that future price action is caused by nothing at all and is random.
 
Quote from NickelScalper:

The logic of your statement is faulty.

To say that future price action is not determined by past price action does not mean that future price action is caused by nothing at all and is random.
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Look try to understand this: Traders NEED structure to place trades. It is fundamental to the nature of man to CONSTRUCT patterns. If no patterns exist intially, traders (man) will construct them and the patterns will emerge as a "self-fullfilling prophecy" (What do you "guys" do for a living. don't tell me trading :eek: that';s scary ) I reiterate: YOU could NOT place a trade without a certain expectation of fullfillment! :eek:
 
Quote from hank rollins:


the market relies on traders faulty perception of predictibility, not the other way around.
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'The market' doesn't rely on anything. It's simply the market, that's all.

If you hold the faulty perception to the contrary, you'll get fleeced by some with a clearer perception.
 
Quote from Jane Doe:

Look try to understand this: Traders NEED structure to place trades. It is fundamental to the nature of man to CONSTRUCT patterns. If now patterns exist intially, traders 9man) will construct them and the patterns will emerge as a "self-fullfilling prophecy" (What do you "guys" do for a living. don't tell me trading :eek: that';s scary ) I reiterate: YOU could NOT place a trade without a certain expectation of fullfillment! :eek:
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may I add that this is a small edge.. of course 'they" have to keep you "honest" as my daddy always says.. IOW, they won't make it easy on you but there is most decidedly a particular Structure to it all :)
 
Quote from Jane Doe:

[...]I reiterate: YOU could NOT place a trade without a certain expectation of fullfillment! :eek:
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Right!
Don't be afraid to call this 'PREDICTING'.
:)
 
Quote from nononsense:

Right!
Don't be afraid to call this 'PREDICTING'.
:)
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It is prediction, you are right. It's a fine balance b/w subtle structure/patterns and money management.. very difficult to discern and even more difficult to manage in real-time. But the rewards are great to those who can "do"! :)
 
Quote from Jane Doe:

You must write very well :)
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thank you. :) :)



a gambler EXPECTS to win on every bet, also.


once again---- if you flip a coin 10 times,and it comes up 10 times heads, are you in a heads trend?

OR

take my earlier random numbers within the ATR of a stock example.


you can pretend all you wish that you have some special ability to predict future price, but you don't.

:)
 
Quote from Jane Doe:

It is prediction, you are right. It's a fine balance b/w subtle structure/patterns and money management.. very difficult to discern and even more difficult to manage in real-time. But the rewards are great to those who can "do"! :)
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ok, jane, i'll play with you. you are somewhat intriguing.


demonstrate to me that you have a scalable edge using your ability to locate and exploit these "subtle structure/ patterns" found in price.

if you can do the above, i'll happily arrange for you to have more capital than you can imagine.


:)
 
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