jasonjm... I knew it was you when i saw this message title.
why are people piling into US notes?
- Thread starter jasonjm
- Start date
Quote from Cutten:
Japan is an even bigger bubble/short, I agree
In reponse to the OP - the simple reason is that other assets are getting screwed, and most institutions limit investment in commodities and foreign currencies (the stuff that is going up). As a result, they are setting us up for a once in a lifetime opportunity to short government bonds - arguably the most overvalued asset class in the world right now.
I like the sound of your argument, but there is simply too much hoarded wealth to go around to let that happen to government debt (unless of course there is a massive default somewhere). That's what those super low yields are saying.
Only two things will kill the bond bubble: World money supply destruction on a massive scale, a bull market in stocks and massive wage inflation.
Until the wages catch up, the forecast is all deflationary, and that holds true for commodities.
To the OP,
There's one aspect that wasn't discussed so far. What if these treasury buyers have large sums to protect. Sipc only covers 100k cash and fdic the same. So if one is not fully invested in stocks to get the higher limit of insurance, where would you park the cash in excess of the insurance limits? What bank would you feel comfortable with today? I would guess the safety issue may be more important than the yield.
It's my understanding that sipc does not cover currency positions, forex, or partnership exposures.
There's one aspect that wasn't discussed so far. What if these treasury buyers have large sums to protect. Sipc only covers 100k cash and fdic the same. So if one is not fully invested in stocks to get the higher limit of insurance, where would you park the cash in excess of the insurance limits? What bank would you feel comfortable with today? I would guess the safety issue may be more important than the yield.
It's my understanding that sipc does not cover currency positions, forex, or partnership exposures.
IF t-bills default, We reached the stage you see in movies like Road warrior. At that point forget even gold, unless you can hit people over the head with it.
I'm surprised no one mentioned the petrodollar recycling. We buy oil for dollars from the Saudis. They take those dollars and put them in the new York fed and buy bonds wit them. The ragheads get their 5 percent interest and get to stay in power. We get a steady supply of crude for essentially free. If they stop buying bonds, we bomb them.
There ya go
There ya go
nah even better
Im
1.2 miles from the 10
0.8 miles from the 405
.5 miles from wiilshire
.3 miles from santa monica blvd
.1 mile from olympic
.1 from pico
.1 mile from overland
2 miles from venice
I can get to anywhere from downtown LA to pacific palisades within 30-35 mins in traffic (much less without)
Most of the time i can be in santa monica or beverly hills, hollywood, brentwood, bel air, century city, culver city within 5 mins
And I can still get to manhattan beach or sherman oaks pretty fast too, or vernon / city of commerce.
You can't beat the location if you are commuting to the areas where the money is (and therefore typically where the work is)
except being 2 miles from Venice & a little farther to Overland (like whats the big deal anyway), you could be describing Koreatown (or worse Westlake) if you changed 405-fwy to Harbor freeway; olus you have the Hollywood fwy.& K-town you're near hollywood, Downtown CBD and Hollywood Hills. im just pointing out that saying "West L.A." is the most central location in L.A. is a strange statement. b/f you flame me, think about it.
you sound like a Westside Realtor
i
