why are people piling into US notes?

Quote from Cutten:

IMO it's just generals fighting the last war. There were 25 years of falling inflation up until 2007/08. It will take years before institutions finally start to give up on bonds. Probably the 30 year will yield 10%+ before the realisation sets in.

This sets up some great trades though. Wait for VIX 35+ and some serious panic capitulation in stocks, then short US and/or Japanese govt bonds (short the actual bond/ETF, not the future - you want the cash to invest) and invest the proceeds into the respective stock market. Borrowing at 3.5% to invest in stocks at a P/E of 12 or lower (earnings yield of 8.5%) is gonna be a massive multi-year winner.
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This is good advice, especially if you select stocks that are able to raise prices in an inflationary environment to maintain profit margin. Companies with strong brand names or intellectual assets will do well.

It shouldn't be too hard to invest the proceeds of the short sale into a concentrated portfolio of quality stocks with an earnings yield of 12.5% or more.
 
well today the note holders are deciding maybe 5%+ CPI isn't a good deal for them

and if the govt says 5%, I wonder what the real number is, 12%?
 
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