Who wants to be a Billionaire?

[josecruset]

how did you do your monte carlo simulation?
which software did you use?
Thanks!
Cheers

 

[ig0r]

Quote from mind:

first i wanted to write a critical post on this probability, because i thought it is misguiding. but i did a small monte carlo first and came to the result that it is a very significant fact that is very different from random. strange.

I think there's a simple reason for this, with the majority of smart money trading at open, emotional people will have pleanty of room to enter in bad places

 

[Runningbear]

Quote from rgelite:

Sure it is. Not identical, of course, which is why I used the word "similar." Because both...

1. Use a simple trend following TA.
2. Limit bet size.
3. Add bets as the market moves in the trade's favor.
4. Have strict exit rules, including those limiting losses.
5. Incorporate the power of diversification to maximize gain.

Similar. Not identical. Having similarly useful principles.

Actually in this regard you are right. It is some what similar. However the 5 points you outline are really common to all mechanical systems.

I was comparing the basic use of an MA based strategy in two time frames to a break out strategy using one time frame.

Runningbear

 

[capitalMan]

I don't know what to say...

I love you..acrary..

fired up your tradestation,wld3...

let's get to work!!

 

[DT-waw]

There're many concept like this... For example http://www.tradingrecipes.com/order_free_ts.html
Starting Equity $80k, ending $13M after 13 years.

Yeah, if you have one million dollars you *can* be a Billionare in under 20 years. You *just* need to survive all these nasty drawdowns and flat periods, pay no taxes and...
get your first little million

 

[prox]

Quote from Runningbear:

Actually in this regard you are right. It is some what similar. However the 5 points you outline are really common to all mechanical systems.

I was comparing the basic use of an MA based strategy in two time frames to a break out strategy using one time frame.

Runningbear

Yeah, I"m no expert but I thought the Turtle method is a Donchian type of breakout, which has very little to do with a MA cross method.

 

[capitalMan]

I think it's in the money management..

how he sizes the position is interesting.

there are hundreds of cta that uses Ma crossover but
there is only one JH

I suggest we do some test on this..

 

[capitalMan]

by the way,

anybody knows the formula for to calculate the amount that the market have to move get a crossover tomorrow?

 

[Turok]

>1. Use a simple trend following TA.
>2. Limit bet size.
>3. Add bets as the market moves in the trade's favor.
>4. Have strict exit rules, including those limiting losses.
>5. Incorporate the power of diversification to maximize gain.

RunningBear:
>However the 5 points you outline are really common
>to all mechanical systems.

Wow, that's an overstatement...I've got mechanical systems that use as few as one of those(#4).

JB

 

[reflexivetrader]

OK, here's one over looked secret to John Henry's or any other successful money managers success like Soros or Paul Tudor Jones, its the ability to attract (OPM) other peoples money!

Yeah a good track record compounding your money over many years might make you a multi millionaire. But compounding other peoples money and earning the standard management and performance fees of 2%/20% on hundreds of millions or billions of dollars, now that's where your net worth will take off!

John Henry was very fortunate early on in his trading career that his broker Dean Witter like his returns and ask him to manage some of their money. Soon he was "marketing" his track record to other firms retail clients like Prudential, Smith Barney and Merrill Lynch, and as they say, the rest is history!

A famous money manager said to me, "If you can consistently earn 30% annual returns and keep your monthly drawdowns below 10%, then the money will find you."