K get lost, bye, don't let the door hit you in the ass.
Who believes there isn't a Gold bubble right now?
- Thread starter LodeRunner
- Start date
K get lost, bye, don't let the door hit you in the ass.
I think we are making a parabolic short term top at 1920-2000 that will fall to 1550-1600
Let's just take this one snippet of that really bad rant.
Three decades? Oh yeah--1980. All the gold haters love to bring up 1980 and how gold has "only doubled in the last 30 years," etc.
That's skewing the data terribly, though. 1980 was a long-term secular top. It happened after a huge, decade-long parabolic move that began with gold under $35/ounce in the early 70s. Why doesn't anyone ever talk about gold's price since 1970? Oh yeah--it doesn't fit the "gold is a terrible long-term investment" thesis. We must carefully pick our starting points for such fallacies.
Since 1970, the gold bugs have been "right" for two decades (1970s and since 2000), just like the stock bulls have only been right two decades (80s and 90s). Want to "prove" how bad an investment stocks are? Show how stocks went nowhere for 25 years starting in 1929. Or compare stocks vs. gold since 2000. Two can play that game.
Trying to fall back on the macro-econ stuff is just laughable. See if the editors will add this gem to the next addition of your remedial "Spotting Bubbles with Macro-Econ Made Fun and Easy" textbook:
"At this juncture . . . the impact on the broader economy and financial markets of the problems in the subprime markets seems likely to be contained," Bernanke in prepared testimony to Congress' Joint Economic Committee, March 2007.
+1
Enough to make headlines and change pedestrian perception. All the while giving the masters one last opportunity to soak it up on the cheap. Any announcement of QE3 or stimulus or infrastructure bank or some other misnomer will likely be coordinated with Europe (and possibly other lands) = risk on!!
You guys are all looking at this from a too American point of view. Look at the gold price in terms of, say, the Swiss Franc.
In about 1970 I got about 4 1/2 Swiss Francs for my US$. Look at it today. A four to five fold devaluation of the $.
Its not gold that's going up, its the US$ that's going down and has been since it came off the gold standard in 1971 and the US started printing dollars big time.
And you ain't seen nothing yet. Bernanke is going to print his way out of trouble.
EL
In about 1970 I got about 4 1/2 Swiss Francs for my US$. Look at it today. A four to five fold devaluation of the $.
Its not gold that's going up, its the US$ that's going down and has been since it came off the gold standard in 1971 and the US started printing dollars big time.
And you ain't seen nothing yet. Bernanke is going to print his way out of trouble.
EL
One thing you can be sure of is this -
ALL the people that start threads about a ' Gold bubble' and post comments on those threads is that ALL of them aren't long Gold and maybe as high as 80% are jealous, hence their need to whinge and whine about 'bubbles'.
As I've said for a long time now, Gold is ONLY a financial story and it's far from mainstream. For example, do you think any bimbos having their hair cut ever mention the metal in the salon with others or people who work there? Not a chance.
But let's go back to the tech stock bubble, do you think stocks were ever mentioned in that salon? Yes, there were. Hence mainstream.
Go forward a few years to the end of the property bubble, 2005. Do you think property was ever discussed amongst the airheads in the salon? Yes it was.
Mainstream is therefore the key to a bubble and right now the only bubble in Gold is the amount of posts starting 'Is Gold in a Bubble'.......
ALL the people that start threads about a ' Gold bubble' and post comments on those threads is that ALL of them aren't long Gold and maybe as high as 80% are jealous, hence their need to whinge and whine about 'bubbles'.
As I've said for a long time now, Gold is ONLY a financial story and it's far from mainstream. For example, do you think any bimbos having their hair cut ever mention the metal in the salon with others or people who work there? Not a chance.
But let's go back to the tech stock bubble, do you think stocks were ever mentioned in that salon? Yes, there were. Hence mainstream.
Go forward a few years to the end of the property bubble, 2005. Do you think property was ever discussed amongst the airheads in the salon? Yes it was.
Mainstream is therefore the key to a bubble and right now the only bubble in Gold is the amount of posts starting 'Is Gold in a Bubble'.......
The price trajectory of gold reflects the general confidence level in the money/financial/economic system whether today or 3000 years ago. Gold has been money before and after all the periods of fiat and legal tender currencies. I would appear the price of gold is being aggressively revalued now in terms of paper currencies. That doesn't mean it cannot be traded, if you are nimble enough, like this guy!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kozSm8MfcXg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kozSm8MfcXg
So long as I continue to see so many gold haters out there I am confident that the year to year bull run is intact. At the same time, I was wholly unsurprised to see gold plunge from $1900 to $1700, as it was obviously getting as overbought as silver was when it hit $48.
The rise in the gold price was never due to fear of terrorism. It was because more and more people see that all the western countries (+ Japan) have gotten hopelessly in debt and in the long run their only option will be to print a lot of new money to pay off the debt. I first bought gold back in the early years of the first George W. Bush term when I saw that a Republican congress and a Republican President was perfectly happy with $400 billion a year deficits.
Whether this causes hyperinflation or just plain old 10% a year inflation I can't say, but seriously, do you think our trillion plus deficit is going to be plugged by new taxes? Can't happen.
People who point to the disutility of gold just don't get it. Have you noticed that you can't eat Federal Reserve notes? Have you noticed that those little green pieces of paper would actually have far more utility if they were blank and didn't have all that green ink on them? The function of steel is to provide strength at a low cost. The function of aluminum is to combine strength with lightness. The function of copper is to conduct electricity and heat. The function of gold is to serve as a store of wealth. That's why central banks are buying gold, not bars of copper or barrels of oil.
The rise in the gold price was never due to fear of terrorism. It was because more and more people see that all the western countries (+ Japan) have gotten hopelessly in debt and in the long run their only option will be to print a lot of new money to pay off the debt. I first bought gold back in the early years of the first George W. Bush term when I saw that a Republican congress and a Republican President was perfectly happy with $400 billion a year deficits.
Whether this causes hyperinflation or just plain old 10% a year inflation I can't say, but seriously, do you think our trillion plus deficit is going to be plugged by new taxes? Can't happen.
People who point to the disutility of gold just don't get it. Have you noticed that you can't eat Federal Reserve notes? Have you noticed that those little green pieces of paper would actually have far more utility if they were blank and didn't have all that green ink on them? The function of steel is to provide strength at a low cost. The function of aluminum is to combine strength with lightness. The function of copper is to conduct electricity and heat. The function of gold is to serve as a store of wealth. That's why central banks are buying gold, not bars of copper or barrels of oil.