Seen some offhand comments to this effect, and I can't quite fathom what kind of rational argument could possibly back up such a theory.
Gold was on very steady multi-decade decline before it started gaining again. The turnaround was due to fear, post-9/11. And now in the past few years it's skyrocketed due to more obviously economic fears. If western civilization lives on and people realize terrorists aren't a significant threat and we have a nice steady bull market again, of course there will be nothing to prop up gold's ridiculous price. How could anyone argue the demand isn't fear driven? How can we explain this bizarre inverse relationship with every other commodity's price?
There's only one explanation for gold to be skyrocketing every time other commodities like copper plummet, and it makes no goddamn sense. Do people really believe modern civilization could survive a transition away from fiat money? Even if it could, do you think ANY government would let it happen? Unless you are physically hiding gold coins under your mattress, your hedge is useless. Hedging against the downfall of western capitalistic civilization using figures on a page, lights on a computer monitor, is useless and pointless.
And let's say you ARE stuffing gold coins under your mattress. Why? Do you really think gold will be the de facto standard of trade again? There isn't enough for it to be used as a common currency anymore. There are orders of magnitude more 'civilized' people than there were centuries ago, and the unwashed (but rather more educated) masses won't stand for a return of a formally segregated noble/patrician economy.
Even ignoring the obvious shortage issues, it's a fucking useless metal. Even as jewelry, it's been out of fashion for a long time. Fashionable people don't wear gold: they wear rhodium, with some ugly yellow gold hidden underneath to give it some weight, and call it 'white gold' because it sounds nicer. Gold's high demand in the jewelry business, like it's demand in the markets, is entirely psychological. And eventually the post-apocalyptic peoples of the world would have to one day look up and say 'hey, what's this soft, heavy, ugly yellow crap that we lock in safes or paint silver actually good for again?'
And I have the same question now: Since gold is obviously not behaving like an inflation hedge and doesn't appear to be very useful if the apocalypse actually happens, just what the hell is it good for?
Gold was on very steady multi-decade decline before it started gaining again. The turnaround was due to fear, post-9/11. And now in the past few years it's skyrocketed due to more obviously economic fears. If western civilization lives on and people realize terrorists aren't a significant threat and we have a nice steady bull market again, of course there will be nothing to prop up gold's ridiculous price. How could anyone argue the demand isn't fear driven? How can we explain this bizarre inverse relationship with every other commodity's price?
There's only one explanation for gold to be skyrocketing every time other commodities like copper plummet, and it makes no goddamn sense. Do people really believe modern civilization could survive a transition away from fiat money? Even if it could, do you think ANY government would let it happen? Unless you are physically hiding gold coins under your mattress, your hedge is useless. Hedging against the downfall of western capitalistic civilization using figures on a page, lights on a computer monitor, is useless and pointless.
And let's say you ARE stuffing gold coins under your mattress. Why? Do you really think gold will be the de facto standard of trade again? There isn't enough for it to be used as a common currency anymore. There are orders of magnitude more 'civilized' people than there were centuries ago, and the unwashed (but rather more educated) masses won't stand for a return of a formally segregated noble/patrician economy.
Even ignoring the obvious shortage issues, it's a fucking useless metal. Even as jewelry, it's been out of fashion for a long time. Fashionable people don't wear gold: they wear rhodium, with some ugly yellow gold hidden underneath to give it some weight, and call it 'white gold' because it sounds nicer. Gold's high demand in the jewelry business, like it's demand in the markets, is entirely psychological. And eventually the post-apocalyptic peoples of the world would have to one day look up and say 'hey, what's this soft, heavy, ugly yellow crap that we lock in safes or paint silver actually good for again?'
And I have the same question now: Since gold is obviously not behaving like an inflation hedge and doesn't appear to be very useful if the apocalypse actually happens, just what the hell is it good for?
:eek: