Which trading strategy would you prefer?

[murray t turtle]

You need to learn turtle speak. Mr. turtle often spoke in parables.

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NOT a prediction, not long TSLA.LOL [Translation; i am not long TSLA....OOPS =TSLA gapped DOWN again. LOL] That'$ even wor$e for TSLA; its down YTD >29.666%, SPY,QQQ are in a good bull market]
ZeTrader most likely will do fine. he asks questions. SOME ''eliteLOL'' punk that did not know much about English tried to correct me about not printing out subject all the time =subject is understood...........................................................................................................,,

 

[ironchef]

3. When relying so much on that rare winning trade, one is more likely to take profits early for fear of the trade turning around. Again, the psychology of it does matter.

Absolutely.

The key is to conquer that fear. Read Taleb.

 

[ironchef]

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NOT a prediction, not long TSLA.LOL [Translation; i am not long TSLA....OOPS =TSLA gapped DOWN again. LOL] That'$ even wor$e for TSLA; its down YTD >29.666%, SPY,QQQ are in a good bull market],,

Hey, every dog has its day. If you bought TSLA 7/12/2019 $180 call options on Jun 3rd for $14, It is $55 on Friday. I think TSLA is on its way back. Not a prediction and like you, I don't trade TSLA.

 

[murray t turtle]

Hey, every dog has its day. If you bought TSLA 7/12/2019 $180 call options on Jun 3rd for $14, It is $55 on Friday. I think TSLA is on its way back. Not a prediction and like you, I don't trade TSLA.

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Exactly, ironchief= ''on its way back''-- back down.LOL That's the main + medium term trend for TSLA= down. Anything can happen on a five minute chart...………………………..,

 

[ironchef]

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Exactly, ironchief= ''on its way back''-- back down.LOL That's the main + medium term trend for TSLA= down. Anything can happen on a five minute chart...………………………..,

In Southern Cal, Tesla cars are everywhere.

 

[murray t turtle]

OK, iron chief
e-quakes, crooked utility companies, floods+ fires = high taxes are also ………………………………………………………………..,

 

[TommyR]

my strategy is a very violent and unstable pyschopath so she has no fear

 

[comagnum]

Novice traders often have tiny winners & large loses by trying to force high win rates & the illusion of consistency over the current time frame.
Seasoned traders look at a much larger sampling of closed trade NAV.

A renowned risk mgr expert looked at the raw trading records of many of the best trading shops & traders & concluded that approx 10% of their winners accounted for 90% of their profits - across a wide variety of trading techniques & firms.

A lower win rate can yield a high ROR with shallow draw-downs.

I would always opt to have a smaller win rate with asymmetrical reward-to-risk as oppsed to a high win rate with symmetrical or inverted reward-to-risk which is typical for high win rates.

I would not take a trade that has a reward-to-risk potential of any less than 3:1, some of my profit targets are >100:1. You need some really big winners each year to make any significant profits, at least that has been my experience. The 10% of fat pitches/home runs makes the other 90% scratched trades well worth it.

"The problem in a nutshell is that human nature does not operate to maximize gain but rather to maximize the chance of a gain. The desire to maximize the number of winning trades (or minimize the number of losing trades) works against the trader. The success rate of trades is the least important performance statistic and can be inversely related to performance. …" William Eckhardt

 

[Bugenhagen]

Strategy 1 will teach you more.