Which trading strategy would you prefer?

Handle123 said:
I hedge opening positions in stocks, futures, ETF's, even spreads over 29 minute bar charts, I have no problems of using a method that has less than 50/50 win loss for many traders, so a loss is a loss for majority of traders, and yet often can be an overall small gain on trades that go wrong directions.

My edge is risk management as it is 99% of my Trading Plan, it is area that traders usually spend least amount of time as many want the best entry so they can risk less, but best entry is an illusion as tomorrow retracement can go lower or be a trend change, whereas I have no worries, I don't own a crystal ball, how low is low? I can't control entries nor how high will be high to take profits, but I can use options or futures to hedge risk at the start and hedge open profits when showing due for retracements. Risk is only area I can control for most part. I didn't learn how to hedge by reading books but 80 plus hours a week for three years doing simulations. I am always testing new ideas based on risk.
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yes i know most successful traders do hedge their positions. i for one am into scalping so my trades are very short lived 6- 10 minutes on an average, if i was swinging or even holding intra day for longer duration, i would definitely hedge my risk.
 
tenny1886 said:
yes i know most successful traders do hedge their positions. i for one am into scalping so my trades are very short lived 6- 10 minutes on an average, if i was swinging or even holding intra day for longer duration, i would definitely hedge my risk.
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After I got my long term down well, got very bored, so horribly went into scalping and years of learning how to scalp, took 7 years just to turn profits and another 10 years to refine the art. I grade my exits to A-B-C-D-F, never gotten it above a "B", but most trades out under 2 minutes on 80%, added runners 2 years ago for the other 20%. The percentages alter on slope angles of price, steeper slopes runner percentage increase and weaker slopes do less runner percentages. The greatest risk is when I am scalping, too expensive to be doing tight hedges.
 
tenny1886 said:
my suggestion would be go back to the drawing board and come with a new strategy. Any strategy that has less than 60-70% win ratio is not a good strategy, unless you like gambling and the euphoria associated with gamblers high. Both of your strategies are like flicking a coin where you either have a 50-50 scenario or a little high/ less than 50%.
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You're completely wrong and giving bad advice. To illustrate, I've lost money on a 90% strategy and made most with something that has a win rate below 60%. I'll leave you to figure out the math.
 
helpme_please said:
Suppose you have 2 trading strategies which give you a positive edge today to make money. One day eventually, they will lose their edge but you don't know when.

Strategy 1
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Slightly above 50% win-rate. When you win, you win 1R. When you lose, you lose 1R, unless some accident happens or the security makes a huge unexpected gap.

Strategy 2
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Win-rate is way below 50%. You lose most of the time. However, when you win, you win 2R. When you lose, you lose 1R.

Which strategy would you prefer, assuming that that the returns in dollar terms is about the same?

I would like to ask the elite traders here with practical experience. Which strategy would you prefer and why?
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Insufficient information to choose, it all depends on expectancy. For example a 30% win rate with R:R of 2:1 is preferred to a 51% win rate with R:R of 1:1.

My win rate is quite a bit below 50. :D
 
d08 said:
You're completely wrong and giving bad advice. To illustrate, I've lost money on a 90% strategy and made most with something that has a win rate below 60%. I'll leave you to figure out the math.
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i am pretty sure that your strategy with less than 60% has a risk to rewards ratio larger than 1:2
 
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