Where the F is the market going now?

[achilles28]

There was something about the reaction I didn't like. If the market was decidedly bullish on Trump, we would have saw that reflected in price action much earlier. that the market waited until the speech, to hear his tone. this is indicative of a very reflexive, pensive, market right now. Emotional trading....

I'm holding the calls here.

 

[Gotcha]

There was something about the reaction I didn't like. If the market was decidedly bullish on Trump, we would have saw that reflected in price action much earlier. that the market waited until the speech, to hear his tone. this is indicative of a very reflexive, pensive, market right now. Emotional trading....

I'm holding the calls here.

I have another take. I don't remember the timing of it all, but to me, it only started going up after it could no longer go down. I don't know the precise rules of what happens when price hits limit down during the after hours, but I do know that once it hit, all that happened was that selling below this price was blocked. It tried several times to get going, only to be pushed down into this price. After a while, you figure out that if people keep wanting to trade, they will have to trade higher.

Once again, I don't know the ins and outs of this, but it seems to me that when you have a race, and you put a brick wall in front of the track, eventually the players figure out that they just need to turn their car around and speed off in the opposite direction in order to continue racing.

I cannot come to any other conclusion. If the market shuts down, nobody makes money. So why not just keep it open, but prevent people from taking price lower. Once the shorts realize it can't go any lower, well then, the only thing left to do is cover, so you get price rising.

Any other take? I'm all ears.

 

[Spectre2007]

I have another take. I don't remember the timing of it all, but to me, it only started going up after it could no longer go down. I don't know the precise rules of what happens when price hits limit down during the after hours, but I do know that once it hit, all that happened was that selling below this price was blocked. It tried several times to get going, only to be pushed down into this price. After a while, you figure out that if people keep wanting to trade, they will have to trade higher.

Once again, I don't know the ins and outs of this, but it seems to me that when you have a race, and you put a brick wall in front of the track, eventually the players figure out that they just need to turn their car around and speed off in the opposite direction in order to continue racing.

I cannot come to any other conclusion. If the market shuts down, nobody makes money. So why not just keep it open, but prevent people from taking price lower. Once the shorts realize it can't go any lower, well then, the only thing left to do is cover, so you get price rising.

Any other take? I'm all ears.

 

[Spectre2007]

Check time stamps---

 

[Spectre2007]

2180 stops..

 

[birzos]

Received the call via via, associate for a group of funds (HFT, Capital, Fund of Fund) and their relevant tech companies. These are the same people who called the Trump trade, Brexit trade, GBPUSD towards parity (back in 2013).

Looking at the strategy paper for the trade now, first tranche is +35% of account on a 16.78:1 P&L move at 6%, the second and third tranches are even more interesting. You need to know the people who know.

 

[der_kommissar]

Received the call via via, associate for a group of funds (HFT, Capital, Fund of Fund) and their relevant tech companies. These are the same people who called the Trump trade, Brexit trade, GBPUSD towards parity (back in 2013).

Looking at the strategy paper for the trade now, first tranche is +35% of account on a 16.78:1 P&L move at 6%, the second and third tranches are even more interesting. You need to know the people who know.

More than likely cycle analysis.

 

[birzos]

More than likely cycle analysis.

Impressive, your powers of the forer effect must be legendary.

 

[dealmaker]

Huge range day. Biggest in a year. Strongly bullish, but looking hugely emotional.

Mohammed El-Arian says big downside for the market unless Trump walks back protectionism aka tariffs. Ain't gonna happen. He said the market was calm and bullish based on Trumps demeanor and tone of acceptance speech.

I've studied this man - nearly every single campaign rally speech - for a year. Tariffs are part of the platform. Maybe the market hasn't figured it out yet? I'm waiting for a new all-time high, then a huge 2B correction to the downside, with major force.

John Authers ‏@johnauthers 4h4 hours ago


The Tariff Tantrum continues apace: this is the JPM EM FX index:

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Income Investing
News, analysis and commentary on income-generating investments.

• November 11, 2016, 2:58 P.M. ET

Auto Industry Is Most at Risk from Trump Trade Plans

By Amey Stone
U.S. automakers would suffer more than any other sector if President-elect Donald Trump succeeds in implementing tariffs and barriers to trade, Standard & Poor‘s concludes in a report published Friday.

Here’s what analysts have to say about that sector:

We see autos as the only industry facing a high and negative impact from policies the new administration may adopt. President-elect Trump has vowed, in his first 100 days, to renegotiate the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), which would have a clear effect on the sector’s supply chain. Changes to the agreement could weigh heavily on long-term profitability for automakers that plan to shift small-car production to Mexico, and others that want to use Mexico as a production hub for emerging markets. Higher tariffs could raise costs, hurt profit margins, and worsen credit metrics. To the extent such renegotiation leads to uncertainty, it may create downside risks for some ratings and outlooks in the sector.

Despite the risk, automakers rose in the past week as investor expectations that the Republican sweep in Washington will lead to a stronger economy lifted stocks. General Motors (GM) and Ford Motor (F). They climbed about 8% in the past week.

David Tesher, one of the analysts who wrote the report, notes that some policy changes would be positive for some sectors. He comments:

We don’t assume all campaign platform rhetoric will transform into government policy. Nonetheless, we believe that, on balance, some of the more realistic policy changes could be positive for corporate taxes, coal-related activities, infrastructure, defense spending, and business regulation; but possibly negative for sectors that are more dependent on trade and immigration.

 

[achilles28]

John Authers ‏@johnauthers 4h4 hours ago


The Tariff Tantrum continues apace: this is the JPM EM FX index:

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Income Investing
News, analysis and commentary on income-generating investments.

• November 11, 2016, 2:58 P.M. ET

Auto Industry Is Most at Risk from Trump Trade Plans

By Amey Stone
U.S. automakers would suffer more than any other sector if President-elect Donald Trump succeeds in implementing tariffs and barriers to trade, Standard & Poor‘s concludes in a report published Friday.

Here’s what analysts have to say about that sector:

We see autos as the only industry facing a high and negative impact from policies the new administration may adopt. President-elect Trump has vowed, in his first 100 days, to renegotiate the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), which would have a clear effect on the sector’s supply chain. Changes to the agreement could weigh heavily on long-term profitability for automakers that plan to shift small-car production to Mexico, and others that want to use Mexico as a production hub for emerging markets. Higher tariffs could raise costs, hurt profit margins, and worsen credit metrics. To the extent such renegotiation leads to uncertainty, it may create downside risks for some ratings and outlooks in the sector.

Despite the risk, automakers rose in the past week as investor expectations that the Republican sweep in Washington will lead to a stronger economy lifted stocks. General Motors (GM) and Ford Motor (F). They climbed about 8% in the past week.

David Tesher, one of the analysts who wrote the report, notes that some policy changes would be positive for some sectors. He comments:

We don’t assume all campaign platform rhetoric will transform into government policy. Nonetheless, we believe that, on balance, some of the more realistic policy changes could be positive for corporate taxes, coal-related activities, infrastructure, defense spending, and business regulation; but possibly negative for sectors that are more dependent on trade and immigration.

Good. Thank you. At least it's registering ....