Where are the bears?
- Thread starter fan27
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‘So many are optimistic’. If you meant dumb money optimistic then it’s overstated. Check aaii sentiment we are basically around historical averages with occasional shoot into the bearish zones. Also nationally checking account balance is at all time high. Aka sideline cash.
Regarding the highs. It’s impossible to read the top. I have discussed this with some very good traders. Eg October 2018. We knew the forex IG ratio was getting dangerous at 50/50. But you never know where my pro boys will start the knock down. But. Knowing it’s only a cleansing is the key. So even if you get caught you can just hang on and even buy more on the cheap.
A full blown systemic bear market is different. Even as newbie I could see 2000 was not sustainable. But 2008? Unless you are in the RE business you may not have smelled enough warnings. But in the 2008 case stocks were not dirt cheap like today. The yields on stocks bonds private placements and hedge funds were roughly the same. So hopefully you are spread around with some market neutral components.
Today is different. Stocks are screaming buy.
Tomorrow? Who knows. It’s impossible to answer now. Will just have to see.
Does Buffett have vision and independent thinking? His cash position has grown from 23 billion in 2009 to 128 billion currently. It seems as though he doesn't see the market as dirt cheap either, otherwise he'd be backing up the truck.
Does Buffett have vision and independent thinking? His cash position has grown from 23 billion in 2009 to 128 billion currently. It seems as though he doesn't see the market as dirt cheap either, otherwise he'd be backing up the truck.
Warren is washed up long ago... and Charlie... BRKA has underperformed/market performed for how long already... couple of decades? yet people still follow him around... typical herd mentality.
Warren maybe last year? said stocks were dirt cheap..
problem with Warren/Charlie is that at this point of their investment career, it's all about legacy preservation.... imagine if they somehow lose it all... the legend is no longer?
that is a bigger risk than underperforming for a few years.... for them.
I like your optimism Turveyd. And I agree long as it's moving. That was a particularly galling night for me - had I stayed in that trade for a couple more minutes a fairly hefty gain would've been delivered. Ah well, comes with the territory I guess. Occasionally we do catch the larger movesDoesn't have to be a leak, these people have so much money at stake they'll have an entire department that sits around and calculates the numbers before the release, so with damn good probability they'll know what'll happen before and set off buy / sell programs and adjust there position accordingly.
As long as it's moving and we can profit who cares right
Mathematically it is possible, but not in today’s overabundance of capital world
I like your optimism Turveyd. And I agree long as it's moving. That was a particularly galling night for me - had I stayed in that trade for a couple more minutes a fairly hefty gain would've been delivered. Ah well, comes with the territory I guess. Occasionally we do catch the larger moves
We only ever catch large moves against us, not worked that out yet
maxinger,
I agree with you on this part. Day trading provides good chances to go long or short the futures daily.
However, I will be buying SPX long whenever a pull back occurs today or tomorrow or whenever. It is tuff to be a bear long term right now.
you cannot beat the government
government do not like bears or bear markets.
they assume public thinks it reflects on their governance.