Where are the bears?
- Thread starter fan27
- Start date
I'm still here... still bearish as ever and will stay that way until the markets drop more than 50-60% than I'll start adding longs and eliminate all short positions. Of course everyone believes this is an impossible feat but it can surely happen. Last December there was close to a 20% drops in a few weeks. A 50%++ drop from a black swan event would shock everyone and that possibility is just as strong as dow 40,000 by end of 2020.
My system been shorting Index futures/hedged for last 2.5 years and will continue to do so till it finds the top, system is always early. But long equity dividend stocks and often hedge open profits those when topping formations happen. It also looks for monthly spreads and credit spreads while waiting. Don't use old terms of bear or bull, definition of trend is what has happen in past, and hope for continuation. Very long term commodity system will stay the course sometimes several years of waiting for the extremes like Eurodollars, patience required if doing manually and learn to hedge well. Some signals make only target when 10% of position is taken to only be stopped out of remaining 90% often, has zero trailing stops once gets to breakeven. Been trading this method since 1991, happy to wait for 9 year somewhat loose extremes and targeting 75% of that range before reversing and starting over going other way. There are add-on situation's when most feel direction has changed, but often have added on dozen times plus till other side is reversed. Comes down to understanding how to hedge well and if a commodity does not have normal ways to hedge, have to think outside the box like in Lumber.
LOL, there are times when a commodity misses the other side of extreme and continues for years in wrong direction like Gold been trading short, missed "zone" by 5 bucks, but you either stay the course or design something else. I am way too old to be redesigning something that done well.
I see no reason to announce all failed attempts, system normally only correct 5-15% of the signals for the year, too many on site are closed minded or just want to ridicule. You either learn in life that the masses are closed minded and best to humble and quiet. Trading is about taking baby steps to make method better through the decades.
How much more upside heat are you willing to take?
Ha I took upside heat for the last 10 years so I can keep going. This bull market is way too old, it will be over soon. Yes I have traded long here and there, but most of the time I'm short. I do have a retirement account that of course is long everything. I have 100% invested but that's my retirement account, its up 20% YTD and Its mostly small caps. I thought about moving everything out going to bonds and waiting for a small correction of 5% and .moving it back in as I just cant see this continuing year after year, but All new money in 2020 going into my retirement is going to be bonds.
Often a bull market ends with a parabolic move to the upside. Ouch if you are short!