Where are the bears?

[Turveyd]

Ouch indeed. These days I only trade the after hours YM. The day sessions have just become too much of a snake pit with mine fields. But that's a discussion for another thread.. here I'm going to ask - last eve (Oct 31) I was in a trade getting frustrated waiting for a move up, until I finally had to exit with a very small net gain of couple YM ticks. A few minutes later, I believe it was around 6:40 Pacific time where I am, it took one of those sudden large moves, this time to the upside. Then it proceeded to stay there and creep further up for most of the rest of the night until the jobs report was released.

Call me paranoid (and some of you no doubt will), but looks to me like last night some insider got advance info of what was in the jobs report this morning. The shenanigans I usually see in the day market are stop-hunting, and the market-moving program trading by the large institutions e.g. Sachs. But I don't often see something that convinces me someone is getting advance insider info. My impression is, I saw just that last night. And with tRump's cronies running the SEC, you can bet no one is watching for insider trading scofflaws anymore.

Speculations anyone?

Doesn't have to be a leak, these people have so much money at stake they'll have an entire department that sits around and calculates the numbers before the release, so with damn good probability they'll know what'll happen before and set off buy / sell programs and adjust there position accordingly.

As long as it's moving and we can profit who cares right

 

[S2007S]

The 1982-2000 bull lasted for 18 years with a couple of brief interruptions, so I'm not sure how you can claim that a 10-year-old bull market is "too old".

Also, serious bear markets don't just happen randomly, but for clearly discernible reasons. What's going to cause the average pro money manager to take his equity allocation down by ten percentage points? It's going to take more than stocks being a bit expensive; these days, pretty much every asset class is expensive.

You might want to do some fact checking.
You are a bit off....let's start fixing a bit of what you wrote


First off this bull market that began in 2009 is the longest on record. The 1982-2000, is completely false. If you cant recall I will recall for you, October 1987, there you go. Okay moving on the second longest bull market is the one from the start of 1990s, it lasted just over 9 years. The one we are in now is 10+ years old. No other bull market has lasted this long. And bull markets always come to an end. There is absolutely no bull market that last forever and this one will end just like the last ones ended.

Bear markets are only figured out and tagged with a reason after the fact the market is down, until then it's a guessing game. So they do pretty much happen randomly until months or even years past and you finally discover that it was a bear market all along. By then it's too late to take off the modest gains you carried months prior...

 

[S2007S]

now whether it will reach that market cap, or the company will be broken up before that due to anti-trust, that's a separate issue.

but on the valuation alone, how do you counter my argument regarding the yield spread? don't bother trying lol.... I had this thread 3.5 years ago - 'are we gonna run out of shares'... that's the kind of vision you need, and if you commit money to that vision, you get rich.

actually in practice it will be more than $500, after so many rounds of buy back, the EPS will likely be even higher than today, so we are talking $600-700 a share when all is said and done.

and that is assuming the earnings stay put! imagine at the end of the day, when the yield gap finally disappears, another 50% earnings growth for the company? now we are talking $1000/share?

I have talked about super cycles and financial freedom before.... without vision you end up like 99% of the crowd, who try to grind for 25 cents a trade, with ATR or support/resistence/trendlines etc etc bs lol.

Law of large numbers will work against this idea...just saying. Go back in history to all the companies that were once leaders and on top of their game on wallstreet. They never lasted through the cycles of innovation and change. Apple is the household name today but 10-20-30 years this wont hold true.

 

[Overnight]

You might want to do some fact checking.
You are a bit off....let's start fixing a bit of what you wrote


First off this bull market that began in 2009 is the longest on record. The 1982-2000, is completely false. If you cant recall I will recall for you, October 1987, there you go. Okay moving on the second longest bull market is the one from the start of 1990s, it lasted just over 9 years. The one we are in now is 10+ years old. No other bull market has lasted this long. And bull markets always come to an end. There is absolutely no bull market that last forever and this one will end just like the last ones ended.

Bear markets are only figured out and tagged with a reason after the fact the market is down, until then it's a guessing game. So they do pretty much happen randomly until months or even years past and you finally discover that it was a bear market all along. By then it's too late to take off the modest gains you carried months prior...

A bull or bear market is not a "fact" that is predefined. It is, as you say, figured after the fact. We went bear market on Dec 24th, 2018. Well, it did not last long. It lasted exactly 0 minutes. Shortest bear market in history by the classic definition of 20%, because Dec 26th killed that bear market.

Dudes, duderinos, and whomever else, we will not be in a bear market until GDP contracts for two or three quarters in a row.

 

[Turveyd]

US30, no new highs really in coming up for 2years, little break over, this is a sideways market a nasty 1 at that, with big sell offs and reverses, intraday players game only here.

Long term, start building a short position, max upside 30,000 so plan accordingly, then quit and take thy loss.

 

[S2007S]

A bull or bear market is not a "fact" that is predefined. It is, as you say, figured after the fact. We went bear market on Dec 24th, 2018. Well, it did not last long. It lasted exactly 0 minutes. Shortest bear market in history by the classic definition of 20%, because Dec 26th killed that bear market.

Dudes, duderinos, and whomever else, we will not be in a bear market until GDP contracts for two or three quarters in a row.

Are we referring to an intraday drop of 20%+ that caused that "bear market"


I believe the close was a fraction below 20% around Christmas

 

[Overnight]

Are we referring to an intraday drop of 20%+ that caused that "bear market"


I believe the close was a fraction below 20% around Christmas

An intraday drop of 20%? Well, that probably won't happen, ever, with the circuit breakers in place now. But yes, that was the start of the bear market, when we closed down 20% from the previous high, as per the "classic" definition of the thing.

 

[BONECRUSHER]

folks are doing this completely wrong... what happened to letting the market show you where it's going.

stocks are DIRT CHEAP! saying a crash is due because it's 10 year old bull market is like seeing 2 coin flips (last 2 bears 2000 and 2008) and predicting the next must be heads..

Stocks are DIRT CHEAP lol? How cheap would they be if the market did drop 50% from this so called "dirt cheap" level...super super duper dirt cheap?

 

[Turveyd]

An intraday drop of 20%? Well, that probably won't happen, ever, with the circuit breakers in place now. But yes, that was the start of the bear market, when we closed down 20% from the previous high, as per the "classic" definition of the thing.

I remember the day, got to a client, logged onto account, spotted the DEATH, my 1 stock was only down a fraction, sold and jumped on something down massively doubled my money in 30mins then sat the rest of that day out, then made a killing shorting, till a massive gap up which wiped all my puts out over night, 6K just gone

 

[Overnight]

I remember the day, got to a client, logged onto account, spotted the DEATH, my 1 stock was only down a fraction, sold and jumped on something down massively doubled my money in 30mins then sat the rest of that day out, then made a killing shorting, till a massive gap up which wiped all my puts out over night, 6K just gone

Easy come, easy go.