Quintessential-Yes. You are helping Romik with his point.
When Indicators Don't Lag
- Thread starter BOC
- Start date
Exactly Right
That's right!
I totally agree. The high win rate is not essential and causes a lot of over-analysis and likely missed trades. Risk little and gain a lot when right. That's what I believe. Good posting--not that you need any approval from anyone. You're fine on your own.
There is a chance.
I sort of think that they front run best when 3 time frames agree. I also believe that an experienced trader such as yourself can look at the price indicator combo and know patterns are the strongest.
No, it isn't. That isn't even the traditional definition of edge.
Without timing (knowing when to enter and when to exit a trade), there is no edge aka positive expectation. And without positive expectation, all the "risk/capital management" in the universe won't save your trading account.
Trading = timing + sizing. Half-assing it doesn't cut it.
In my case high profits were connected with high win rate. But I understand that this is not the case for everybody or every system.
So from my personal experience it was right, but in general it is not always right.
Re your previous post, I don't know if LTCM traded PA or not. I don't know whether or not they had any "edge". Without knowing their plan, it's all guess work, as are all threads like this, now and in the past.
But as for this post, yes. To suggest that risk and capital management are all there is to it is juvenile and betrays a complete lack of understanding of simple arithmetic. In order for such an approach to work, the trader must be consistently right. Otherwise, his trading capital diminishes in a steady slog downward. A pencil and paper and five minutes will prove this out. Yet according to the proponents of this RCM approach, it has nothing to do with being right. I'm hoping that even beginners will grasp the logical fallacies in this, but, unfortunately, that probably is not and has not been the case.
What any of this has to do with indicators is anybody's guess. If all the threads about edges and indicators could be bundled together, they'd sink a cruise ship. But since all these groups speak different languages, these sorts of threads will go on until we all spread our wings and fly away.
Look at this rather poor current win rate. No systematic edge, just letting winners run until conditions change. Entries dictated by MACD, only MACD.
+16.5
+0
+2.75
+5.25
-2.75
-3
-1.75
-3.5
-4.5
+9.75
-3
+37.75
+11
+2.5
-1.75
-4.25
-4.25
-5.75
+5.5
-10
+2.75
+4.25
-4
+17.75
-1
-6.25
-6.5
-3.25
-3.25
-6.25
-5.25
-0.25
+9
(12w,20l,1b/e)
+16.5
+0
+2.75
+5.25
-2.75
-3
-1.75
-3.5
-4.5
+9.75
-3
+37.75
+11
+2.5
-1.75
-4.25
-4.25
-5.75
+5.5
-10
+2.75
+4.25
-4
+17.75
-1
-6.25
-6.5
-3.25
-3.25
-6.25
-5.25
-0.25
+9
(12w,20l,1b/e)