When Indicators Don't Lag

[i am nobody]

The main reason you guys are so afraid of consecutive losses and require a high winning ratio is due to small targets, that would otherwise be 'eaten up' by the losing trades. Increase your targets vs your average stop and you can forget about theoretical high win systems.

This is complete nonsense.

You cannot increase your targets. Only your system can (or should) define the potential profit. Moving targets can have as result that you miss the profits because your targets might be not realistic. Waiting for a price that will never be reached and next being stopped out because the market reverses will be the result.

You should have a system that takes the big moves, if your system does not do that you should improve your system. Just moving targets is not a solution because the market will decide what profit you can take. Moving targets will not change what the market will do.

You should not aim for high win rates, you should aim for high profits. If your system is good your win rate will be automatically high as a result of your system.

 

[SunTrader]

The main reason you guys are so afraid of consecutive losses and require a high winning ratio is due to small targets, that would otherwise be 'eaten up' by the losing trades. Increase your targets vs your average stop and you can forget about theoretical high win systems.

You keep saying this.

Obvious you have a reading comprehension problem.

So please keeping doing what you are doing. I'll be there to take the opposite side.

 

[SunTrader]

I don't trade with targets at all. Why limit a trade. The market determines how high or how low. Each trade is meaningless in the grand scheme of things.

Now I do trade with stops from losses and to protect profits once it is headed in the right direction.

 

[SunTrader]

You should not aim for high win rates, you should aim for high profits. If your system is good your win rate will be automatically high as a result of your system.

You nailed it and then blew it in the next sentence.

Being profitable is the key not being right which is really what an emphasis on win rate is all about.

 

[romik]

If it has been thoroughly tested and it is and has been consistently profitable and they have the discipline to follow it, then there is no chance that they will "wipe" their accounts.

Given that so few "traders" have plans to begin with, and given how many fewer have plans that are thoroughly tested (something more than buy if it looks like it's going to go up), the above may seem incomprehensible to someone who has not gone through this process. But it's how one makes a living at this trading his own money (if he's trading OPM, he can come up with just about anything that sounds good, whether it actually works or not).

Even a system based on indicators can work if the above criteria are met. A system based on planetary alignment can work. But, getting back to the subject of the thread, the lag inherent in indicators must be accounted for through extensive testing. One may believe that indicators forecast or predict or whatever, but unless that belief is supported by more than anecdotal data, the system will eventually fail.

LTCM? Chance of failure exists in any system. Please get over yourself, especially the 100% IAN. You can invent and re-invent all you like trying to beat some sort of code, which has millions of variables. Perhaps you should give yourself another handle, Mr Anderson?

Buy1Sell2 BTW has posted real-time calls with stops since he started his first journal on ET, so you are in no position to question his skills, no matter how basic they may seem to you. And no matter what his win rate may be - he is up consistently over the last 9 years? He is a conservative trader that manages risk and trades effectively. You don't like it for whatever reason, but would love to see you post real-time calls with whatever stops you choose for the next 9 years and let us see how you perform over the years.

All this talk about ineffectiveness of a low win rate system is meaningless, as has been proven by Buy1Sell2 over many years.

 

[romik]

I don't trade with targets at all. Why limit a trade. The market determines how high or how low. Each trade is meaningless in the grand scheme of things.

Now I do trade with stops from losses and to protect profits once it is headed in the right direction.

Credit where credit is due. I like this post.

 

[romik]

And my journal is still up. Considering it isn't based on any secret formula, just trade management and a very basic entry/exit strategy, which you keep calling futile, I would say I am a very lucky chap

 

[dbphoenix]

LTCM?

What was their plan?

 

[dbphoenix]

You nailed it and then blew it in the next sentence.

Being profitable is the key not being right which is really what an emphasis on win rate is all about.

True. If the plan is robust, a high win rate is a nearly unavoidable consequence since the trader won't be taking any trades that aren't part of his plan. Seeking a "high win rate" without regard for the P:L is suicidal.

 

[romik]

What was their plan?

Whatever it was, I bet it was a lot more sophisticated than yours, considering what people were designing the formulas. But then something happened, as you may already know, Russia defaulted and the fund went tits up, as we say in England. Chance of failure is always there.