Quote from Sandybestdog:
If there is $100 in the money supply, then banks can lend $1000 in loans. If they charge 20% interest, then a year later $1200 is owed. My question is, how are the borrowers supposed to pay back $1200 in loans, when there is only $1000 in the money supply?
Let's use a more realistic example:
START OF YEAR
$100 initial money supply (net worth).
Banks lend $400 combined at t = 0
END OF YEAR
Interest at 5% for the year = $20
Principal repayment = $400
--
$80 consumer net worth
--
Ergo, with 0% increase in the base money supply (not accurate, but base money supply actually increases VERY little), just a 5% interest rate and a standard money-multiplier resulting in $400 of loans from a $100 base has caused a dramatic reduction in consumer wealth. From $80 to $100.
Technically, in this example, there would be high deflation as less consumer value is around to reprice goods in the market. However, since it is unlikely that the $400 is to be paid off (or defaulted on) in a single year, a lot of that money will continue to exist in the system and be used to price goods.
That is, until all the credit is wiped from the system and the destructive power of the fractional reserve system in concert with low-to-0 increase in the base monetary supply is exposed.
It has been said that 97% of all dollars in circulation today are debt-created. Just because a lot of that money is sitting in company X's balance sheet as an 'asset' does not imply that the same money is not on company Y's balance sheet as debt.
How long can the Ponzi Leverage Scheme exist? Well, that is anybody's guess, since a prolonged monetization period as well as debt-restructuring/modification initiatives can both serve to 'push the can further down the road.'