Wheat - Oct 11, 2006

Quote from leapfrog:

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/045d7d8e-5844-11db-b70f-0000779e2340.html

Might be a good time to mortgage the house, sell the kids into slavery and put everything into wheat futures.

Then again, if it rains in the outback tonight, maybe keep the kids...
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You should have started this thread in mid September.

Aggressive Longs triggered on 09/15/06, Conservative Longs triggered 09/25/06 for Dec 06, March 07, May 07, July 07 & Dec 07 contracts. All are still long & strong. Dec 07 is signaling a potential top setting up there.
 
Quote from ProfLogic:

You should have started this thread in mid September.

Aggressive Longs triggered on 09/15/06, Conservative Longs triggered 09/25/06 for Dec 06, March 07, May 07, July 07 & Dec 07 contracts. All are still long & strong. Dec 07 is signaling a potential top setting up there.
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Yes, I was being conservative...I got in a while ago too, but there might be one or two traders still out there who are hesitant to jump in at lock-limit-up...

[P.S. and just in case anyone is taking me seriously, past results are no guarantee of future profits]
 
Quote from leapfrog:

Yes, I was being conservative...I got in a while ago too, but there might be one or two traders still out there who are hesitant to jump in at lock-limit-up...

[P.S. and just in case anyone is taking me seriously, past results are no guarantee of future profits]
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hehe . . . gotcha
 
why is July 07 wheat getting killed while Dec soaring? My guess would be its a different harvest or something...just curious...want to get into ags but still watching, seems to be very volatile
 
Quote from Sashe:

why is July 07 wheat getting killed while Dec soaring? My guess would be its a different harvest or something...just curious...want to get into ags but still watching, seems to be very volatile
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Each month is traded as a separate entity. Never ever think just because one month is doing something particular that it bleeds over to other months. Feedlots hedge and trade based on their needs and farmers hedge and trade on theirs.

The volatility is good as long as you can read direction. I like the volatile upswings in a Bull Market or the volatile downturns in a Bear Market.
 
Quote from Sashe:

why is July 07 wheat getting killed while Dec soaring? My guess would be its a different harvest or something...just curious...want to get into ags but still watching, seems to be very volatile
More...

Higher prices mean more people planting wheat which will saturate the market
 
Quote from ProfLogic:

Each month is traded as a separate entity. Never ever think just because one month is doing something particular that it bleeds over to other months. Feedlots hedge and trade based on their needs and farmers hedge and trade on theirs.

The volatility is good as long as you can read direction. I like the volatile upswings in a Bull Market or the volatile downturns in a Bear Market.
More...

It's not so much "each" month that does it's own thing. Different crop years do their own thing. The CBOT Wheat contract is Soft-red Winter Wheat harvested in the early SUMMER. Thus July/07 Wheat is the Wheat that's just now being planted. The prices that are exploding (Dec/06, Mch/07) are existing supplies of wheat.

BTW: I hear funds are long the fronts, Cargill and other commercials are shorts spreads and a few locals are down millions.
 
this from the OP's quoted article:
"The latest rise is expected to lead to higher food prices, hitting bread, breakfast cereals, pizzas and pasta."

mamma mia, this is like, worse than Katrina!!!

remember those days, $1 pizza slice at any NY street corner (well, almost...) :(
 
Pabst,

Dead on about the locals...hearing this is the biggest bloodbath ever in that pit. 4 full seats went on the market this week from wheat locals. It is UGLY.
 
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