what's your Jack Hershey trading system win/loss ratio ?

Quote from Colyn.Rosenthal:

It's all hard to understand. Made my head hurt trying to understand it. Now that I understand it, I choose to stay totally away from it. I do understand how some make money with it though. I emailed 3 of the guys so let's see what I get back.

It really surprises me anybody asks about Jack Hershey's methods, and never have a look at the threads about it under my name. Every part of the MACD Stochastic momentum driven indicator is available on Wealth Lab Pro, which is the only platform that has backtested as succesfully as advertised. Have Code, could post, but set for .SPX 5 Minute Bars.

Here is Jack Hershey's Algorithm:

var lbar,bar : integer;

var val1 : integer = 5;
var val2 : integer = 13;
var val3 : integer = 6;
var HersheyStochK2 : integer = StochDSeries(5, 2);
var HersheyStochD2 : integer = SMASeries(HersheyStochK2, 3);
var HersheyStochK : integer = StochDSeries(14, 1);
var HersheyStochD : integer = SMASeries(HersheyStochK, 3);

for Bar := 5 to BarCount - 1 do
begin



if (bar>lbar+2) and (gettime(bar)<1545) then begin
if not (lastpositionactive) and (crossovervalue(bar,HersheyStochK,50) ) and (@#Volume[bar-1]>20000) then begin
{ if (@MACDH[bar]>0) then }buyatmarket(Bar+1,'Jacks friend scott d says to buy here');
end;
if not (lastpositionactive) and (crossundervalue(Bar,HersheyStochK,50)) and (@#Volume[bar-1]>20000) then begin
{ if (@MACDH[bar]<0) then }shortatmarket(Bar+1,'Jacks friend scott d says to sellshort here');
end;
if (positionlong(lastposition)) and (@HersheyStochK[bar]<@HersheyStochD[bar]) and (crossundervalue(Bar,HersheyStochK,80)) then begin
sellatmarket(Bar+1,LastPosition,'');
end;
if (positionshort(lastposition)) and (@HersheyStochK[bar]>@HersheyStochD[bar]) and (crossovervalue(Bar,HersheyStochK,20)) then begin
coveratmarket(Bar+1,lastposition,'');
end;
if (positionlong(lastposition)) and (abs(@HersheyStochD[bar])<1.4) then begin sellatmarket(Bar+1,LastPosition,''); end;
if (positionshort(lastposition)) and (abs(@HersheyStochD[bar])<1.4) then begin coveratmarket(Bar+1,LastPosition,''); end;
if (positionlong(lastposition)) and (lastbar(bar)) then begin sellatclose(Bar,lastposition,'');end;
if (positionshort(lastposition)) and (lastbar(bar)) then begin coveratclose(Bar,lastposition,'');end;

end;
if lastbar(bar) then begin
lbar:=bar;
end;
end;

Note this is in Wealth Lab Developer 4.5, not Pro, use translator to create new updated version.
 
Quote from cornixforex:

Yes. Tools and general trading ideas promoted by JH are pretty sane. What was wrong is too much esoteric stuff which for some reason was thrown into the equation and turned good idea of creating a complete method for newbies into something too complicated for most to even understand, not even speaking about trading it.

What the heck, people that would crawl through broken glass and declare complete obedience to the Great Jack are who he's looking for. That is what the NlP jibberish is about...

I did figure out what an FTT is and I quit trying to follow JH after that.. Without using the RGR or GRG signals on the two minute bars I'd say that FTT's by themselves might be good entries at the beginning of a trend maybe more than half the time but there can be a lot of churn when they fail and they can fail up to three times in a row when the reversal signal turns into a continuation signal... and on a day like the 1987 crash where people kept buying the dips until they blew out their accounts hershey's FTT reversal traders are going to follow suit...

Gains might be four times losses and it's hard to automate... speaking of which, why would people want to go with stuff that was developed before and at the dawn of the PC?? The trading environments that are available today are astoundingly rich with useful tools and automation is there for anybody that can learn to write a script... nearly all that is needed in the way of basic knowledge was already published by the 1920's...

I remember that Clint Eastwood western movie where the ghost of the sheriff came into town and they hired him to help fight off the bad gang guys that were on the way. He put them to work doing all sorts of things and they painted the whole town red or something and then the bad guys came and took over the place anyhow or something.. Jack H reminds me of that movie for some reason... He has all the chicken-little townsfolk out painting the town and wondering what he will do next...
 
Quote from Wallace:

'what's your Jack Hershey trading system win/loss ratio ?'
interested in knowing what your win/loss ratio is in trades and $

Here is the problem with your question on the philosophical/logical level:

Let's say X people respond with X very different results. What does it tell you?
Pretty much nothing. Why? Because they most likely interpreted the rules in X very different ways and of course there is the psychology of trading too.

You could only get a semi statisfying answer if the X responders' results were fairly similar. Of course, it is still possible that they still missused the system (assuming X is a rather small number), but they did it in a way, that their results are still similar.

So was this approach adult like for you??? :)

TL;DR : Unless you get a statistically significant number of responses with similar results (highly unlikely) your question is doomed to fail...
 
Quote from gmst:

Yes Colin, please ask people who are trading JH methods. His methods have generated so many pages and so many threads - alot of which is very hard to understand - that it will be very very refreshing to see some hard stats about the performance of the method. Thanks for your offer. I look forward to see if you can post some data.

Two have gotten back to me.

One started trading with real money in March after 9 months of practice. He said he is still building his confidence and that is way his win rate is low but hits a 65% win rate and a 1:2 R/R ratio. He said he has about 4 to 6 trades a day.

The other said he has been trading SCT for about 3 years and after a year of practice get 8+ points a day with a 80% win rate.

Both of these guys are simple retail traders not large scale insitutional traders.

More power to them but I repeat, I can't trade it. It still makes my head hurt.
 
Quote from Wallace:

interested in knowing what your win/loss ratio is in trades and $
I guess your question doesn't apply to Hershey's SCT because, as he stated, his approach isn't probabilistic. He trades what there is, and not what there might happen or not.
 
Quote from Pekelo:

Here is the problem with your question on the philosophical/logical level:

Let's say X people respond with X very different results. What does it tell you?
Pretty much nothing. Why? Because they most likely interpreted the rules in X very different ways and of course there is the psychology of trading too.

You could only get a semi statisfying answer if the X responders' results were fairly similar. Of course, it is still possible that they still missused the system (assuming X is a rather small number), but they did it in a way, that their results are still similar.

So was this approach adult like for you??? :)

TL;DR : Unless you get a statistically significant number of responses with similar results (highly unlikely) your question is doomed to fail...

I agree.

Wallace, Jack's program hasn't been programmed so I don't know of an objective way to test it. Maybe it has but I don't know of the existance of such a program. This means your choice is to either try to wade through the information and see what you can test on our own or find another path.

My philosophy is that if you can't test it (plug a wire into it), then find something you can. Life is way too short to try to learn the Hershey language on your own.
 
Quote from Colyn.Rosenthal:

Two have gotten back to me.

One started trading with real money in March after 9 months of practice. He said he is still building his confidence and that is way his win rate is low but hits a 65% win rate and a 1:2 R/R ratio. He said he has about 4 to 6 trades a day.

The other said he has been trading SCT for about 3 years and after a year of practice get 8+ points a day with a 80% win rate.

Both of these guys are simple retail traders not large scale insitutional traders.

More power to them but I repeat, I can't trade it. It still makes my head hurt.
Such claims don't seem congruent with what I inferred from Hershey's posts I've read, and they kind of make you wonder.
 
Quote from baro-san:

He trades what there is, and not what there might happen or not.

If you were trying to be funny, you actually hit the nail on the head and how odd is that.

Jack trades, bar by bar so when you are dealing with 2 minute bars (as an example), you can have multiple decisions just within ten minutes. These decisions can be predicted, this is something you have to watch, bar by bar, to be able to take advantage of in real time. This is the exact reason this method makes my head hurt. OUCH!
 
Quote from RedDuke:



The strange thing that I could "never understand" both Spyder and Jack spent countless hours educating others, why not just spent few days trading live, if for no other reason, but to give confidence that the method truly works to their followers.

+1000
 
Quote from Colyn.Rosenthal:

I want to state up front that I am not a Hershey trader. It is a way too cerebral method for me to trade. The method I use is consistent and profitable so I see no need to change.

That being said I have taken the time to learn and understand the components of the method so I was more informed than the typical "I-know-Hershey-sucks-because-it's-too-hard-to-understand-and-it-is-easier-to-just-flame-him" poster.

I personally know 4 traders that use the Hershey method to trade and they are all consistently profitable. They vary in their experience with the method as well but their learning process has been identical so this tells me method subjectivity is limited.

I know that posting SCT trades in real time would be borderline ridiculous considering the time frame that most of the SCT traders use. By the time they would post an entry the exit would have already passed. I see it is just easier to flame them for not posting trades than to understand why they can't.

The language is Hershey. The language is complicated. I agree the language is silly so what is the solution. Find someone that uses the method successfully and allow them to interpret it into English for you. You can then see it as something you don't want to trade, like I did or something you might want to look into.

The claim that Hershey or any other SCT trader can extract 3 times the daily range from a chart isn't the question. First see if a typical SCT chart can cycle an average of 3 or more times each day. If it can then apply the SCT method to see if the claim is possible. Answer this for yourself don't simply listen to the scabs that have never tried to answer that question for themselves.

Losses? Some of the people I know typically have no loss days. Is that saying everyone that trades SCT will accomplish this? Hell no!!!

If you think that everyone that tries to duplicate the skill set of any other successful person will always succeed at cloning that specific level of success then you need to stop whatever you do for a living and go get a landscaping job and leave real life to the rest of us.

For better or worse,everything was going on not that bad until the ''hold and reverse'' point.Also,to me,it turned out a good method for the midterm trades and not so good for the timing trades.The lower the timeframe,more failed fractals you`ll get.
 
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