+1... IMHO, (as I mentioned already in an older thread) this is all about mark-to-mkt and sort of "negative externalities" embedded in it.
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What's wrong with Iron Condors
- Thread starter jb514
- Start date
Quote from jb514:
Please explain how this is not true.
You are basically saying that if playing blackjack is negative expectancy, dealing must be as well.
No I think the way to read it is playing blackjack is a negative expectancy, then dealing is positive (i.e. being the house/casino who does make mone from Blackjack).
However with option strats it does not work this way. A single strategy cannot have a neg expectancy alone otherwise doing the opposite would have the positive expectancy which it does not.
Quote from Mike Okistini:
No I think the way to read it is playing blackjack is a negative expectancy, then dealing is positive (i.e. being the house/casino who does make mone from Blackjack).
However with option strats it does not work this way. A single strategy cannot have a neg expectancy alone otherwise doing the opposite would have the positive expectancy which it does not.
A strategy can easily have a negative expectancy once the bid/ask spreads and commissions are taken into account. The opposite side, if taken by a retail trader buying at the ask and selling at the bid, can still have negative expectancy. The market maker sitting in the middle, buying at the bid and selling at the ask, can maintain positive expectancy if he hedges efficiently.
No, since the asset in question is volatility, both buyers (Volatility Bulls) and sellers of vol (Volatility Bears) can make money, but ...Quote from jb514:
That implies you can make money trading bull spreads and bear spreads, when we already discovered you can't make money trading credit spreads.
I am still struggling to understand the point of this thread - do you want to know if you can make money by selling strangles/straddle, condors or whatever other neutral structures you can think of? The answer is yes. Would you make money all the time? The answer is probably NO.
Without agreeing or disagreeing with you, I find categorical statement that are expected to be accepted without explanation (proof) or citation unhelpful for those just learning options trading.Quote from nfamousyoungest:
what the flying fuck, edge in direction or vola is what you need, the effing structure doesn't matter.
I've been at it for almost a year, and things I would write today are far more informed than what I wrote early on. But none of that learning came from comments like yours. I prefer teachers to shouters, but the ratio on et seems about 1:50.