What's the most counter-intuitive thing you learned in trading?
- Thread starter pinetboltz
- Start date
More counter-intuitive (this time by definition): Lack of brains?
Just kidding ofc, but research do show females on average to have stronger psychological fortitude, stamina and emotional intelligence. Believe it or not, men and women are not built the same, neither is each individual. Most often group characteristics do not speak much for each individual at all. Strange how people compromise themselves to conform, even when supposedly attempting to avoid stereotyping.
When you talk to some brainy people, just imagine you're on Star Trek
Logic is King!
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Those two variables ALWAYS form an inverse relationship in the long-run. That is the importance.
No, because it is irrelevant. You are assuming the counter party knows more than you, but you simple don't know the reason why they are buying/selling. You are buying on a breakout and they might be selling because they need cash. Or they are hedging. Or they are already taking profits.
See? So many different reasons for selling, and it has nothing to do with knowing more than you do. And they could be also wrong with their selling.
No, because it is irrelevant. You are assuming the counter party knows more than you, but you simple don't know the reason why they are buying/selling. You are buying on a breakout and they might be selling because they need cash. Or they are hedging. Or they are already taking profits.
See? So many different reasons for selling, and it has nothing to do with knowing more than you do. And they could be also wrong with their selling.
You are forgetting about a major player in the market that is always one of the contra parties to your position when you are trading following price movements.
The most counter-intuitive thing I have learned in trading is that everyone has predictable "Blind Spots". Traders can raise self-awareness of these behavioral bias that doom them and you would think that would be enough to avoid the pitfalls but they still fall into the black hole.
So people either have no awareness or they have brought it to the conscience and yet they still fall victim to these "Blind Spots"....if you are the rare person smart enough to automate your process so these personal bias don't steer you wrong, then you can make money at anything...
Example:
I was in a finance workshop and listened to the instructor talk about the weaknesses of investing in triple leverage ETF's over the long term. These ETF's use daily long option purchases which causes a huge Theta decay and drag on the ETF. We went for lunch afterwards to talk about some of the challenges of trading and he asked if I would mentor him as he had hit a bad patch. When I looked at his portfolio, he had put on long term long positions in triple leveraged ETF's and was down $500K ?? How does a guy that stands in front of a group of traders and say never buy these long term, turn around and do just that?? This makes no sense and he was aware that he should not do it but he did it anyways. Bizarre...
Summary:
Look back in your trading logs and try to understand your logic. There will be times where you will read your notes and they are just not logical. You might say - markets are random and so I'm guessing they go up and buy them. But an hour later your losing and you say why did I buy the market, it is obvious that it's going down. But how can the market be random and yet be obvious as to the next move? It can't right - do you know where your "Blind Spots" are and how do you mitigate them?
So people either have no awareness or they have brought it to the conscience and yet they still fall victim to these "Blind Spots"....if you are the rare person smart enough to automate your process so these personal bias don't steer you wrong, then you can make money at anything...
Example:
I was in a finance workshop and listened to the instructor talk about the weaknesses of investing in triple leverage ETF's over the long term. These ETF's use daily long option purchases which causes a huge Theta decay and drag on the ETF. We went for lunch afterwards to talk about some of the challenges of trading and he asked if I would mentor him as he had hit a bad patch. When I looked at his portfolio, he had put on long term long positions in triple leveraged ETF's and was down $500K ?? How does a guy that stands in front of a group of traders and say never buy these long term, turn around and do just that?? This makes no sense and he was aware that he should not do it but he did it anyways. Bizarre...
Summary:
Look back in your trading logs and try to understand your logic. There will be times where you will read your notes and they are just not logical. You might say - markets are random and so I'm guessing they go up and buy them. But an hour later your losing and you say why did I buy the market, it is obvious that it's going down. But how can the market be random and yet be obvious as to the next move? It can't right - do you know where your "Blind Spots" are and how do you mitigate them?
You are forgetting that major players lose money too.
Why everyone always assumes that big banks always know what they are doing?
You are forgetting that major players lose money too.
Why everyone always assumes that big banks always know what they are doing?
To each his own thinking. I would rather trade with my major adversary instead of against him. I know he will be here tomorrow taking the contra position of the masses.
Well usually balls refer to the set located further down below in human anatomy. The set that females have is usually not called balls but boobs, both starts with "b" but very different.
