What's the deal with these constant late day rallies?

B

Blue_Bull

Look...I can understand probabilities, and I recognize that sooner or later there will be a sequence with countless afternoon rallies. But does this really feel "random" or "natural?"

I haven't been around long enough, so I'm not sure if manipulation really exists, and to what extent. But, if I didn't know better, I'd say someone is trying hard to make this thing go higher.
 
PPT (a.k.a the Treasury department) is buying futures contracts during thin market periods has been driving this market higher for months. It is all part of the current Administrations manipulations.
 
I am a bit perplexed as well. I still say she is going to dump soon. I refuse to go long above resistance at this point. When you have a KB down into a KB up it means volatility coming in. For the ES.
 
Considering the weird Internet boom at the end of the 1990s, it's entirely possible for the market to go one way "even if it doesn't make sense". (lol)

If you do your peak and trough analysis, you know what the direction is, it's up.

This reminds me what some people did around 2000 when the markets started tanking and some people were still convinced they should be going long (even when it was clear the markets were heading south). If the market is telling you it's going up, then you're stepping in front of a freight train when shorting it.
 
Quote from Blue_Bull:

Look...I can understand probabilities, and I recognize that sooner or later there will be a sequence with countless afternoon rallies. But does this really feel "random" or "natural?"

I haven't been around long enough, so I'm not sure if manipulation really exists, and to what extent. But, if I didn't know better, I'd say someone is trying hard to make this thing go higher.
More...

Let's say what you're saying is true. That would mean people with value-based forecasting systems would see a huge mispricing and sell, right? Or do you figure the government just prints money and absorbs the downward pressure? Someone at the CME would know, right?

It is weird, but I keep trying to figure out what the mechanics of mass government fraud would be. Lots of bogus accounts, lots of intelligence operation fronts, and a bizarre shift in volume from the usual players into weird fake government accounts.
 
Quote from slapshot:

PPT (a.k.a the Treasury department) is buying futures contracts during thin market periods has been driving this market higher for months. It is all part of the current Administrations manipulations.
More...
Nope......just a simple unwinding of Commercials held SHORT inventory into the end of day, with the US Dollar dropping which triggered Equities to pump some BUY programs

http://www.charthub.com/images/2010/03/15/FulcrumTrader_CD_ESM10_4

All held resting SHORT inventory went exactly to neutral right up to the last portion of the trade day. The Equities lead BUY program activity enticed resting SHORT inventory to cover. So you got to see a typical reactionary SHORT covering rally in futures as a result of the Equities BUY program runs.

http://www.charthub.com/images/2010/03/16/FulcrumTICK1_Min

Commercials who previously sold the 1149's up to the 1152.00 level (well over 10,000 contracts) were still holding their remaining SHORT inventory right up to the last hour today. With the end of day Equities lead BUY program runs, the Commercials made sure remaining SHORT inventory was covered out flat with the trade up through the 1145's/1146's (locking in 5 points of profit on the remaining held SHORT inventory that was covered out into the close today).

Commercials booked out their last SHORT positions and will let the market give them "price improvement" potential in the after hours session.....to then sell the ES again with better pricing levels (while they locked in at least 5 points profit with their covered end of day positions today). This is a typical pattern of activity under the current market circumstances......nothing new today at all.
 
I made a thread on this earlier as well, it just doesn't make sense to me either, I'm selling on the USD/CHF and then all of a sudden the bugger rises! This is supposed to be a bubble economy but I guess this is part of it :(
 
Quote from clambill:

Considering the weird Internet boom at the end of the 1990s, it's entirely possible for the market to go one way "even if it doesn't make sense". (lol)

If you do your peak and trough analysis, you know what the direction is, it's up.

This reminds me what some people did around 2000 when the markets started tanking and some people were still convinced they should be going long (even when it was clear the markets were heading south). If the market is telling you it's going up, then you're stepping in front of a freight train when shorting it.
More...

I'm not gonna step in and short it. It's just that I was pretty sure we'd get the pull-back, at which point I was hoping to open some swing positions.

Instead we're getting an upward drift, but I don't want to go long at these levels. It doesn't feel like a breakout to me, so I'm not gonna chase it.

Basically I'm stuck on the sideline, and it's kind of annoying. Beats losing money though, for sure!
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top