Whats going on with all these people ready to give up their rights?

[El OchoCinco]

I apologize, it is hard to answer all the replies. I am working - at work - as our business is considered essential. I am not at home with my fingers up my ...well, you know.

Most businesses are considered essential and operating either in person or remotely. Only thing closed really are schools, restaurants and bars (unless they have take out) and retail/gyms/movie theaters.

So ....you are not alone working Mr. Essential haha

 

[El OchoCinco]

Drastic but true. At some point dead, dying and collapsing hospitals be damned, the restart button needs to be hit, otherwise the whole place goes down the shitter. We have 3, maybe 4 weeks tops to make the choice, or it's all moot at that point. Down we go.

We can do it for 3 to 4 weeks if.....

EVERYONE WOULD STAY THE FUCK HOME.

That easy. But since people are too stupid or arrogant and keep flooding the hospitals with more cases....this is where we are at.

 

[El OchoCinco]

Your last point is a lie. I saw the numbers today out of NYC. Death rates for otherwise healthy persons - OF ALL AGES - is nearly zero. What ? 10 ppl? This isn't an old persons disease. Its a sick persons disease.

The truth is, we're all getting this virus, at some point. The nearest vaccine is 18 months away. Shall we all "shelter in place" for the next 18 months and bankrupt every last business, corporation and taxpayer, in the process? Put the Constitution through the shredder to save 1 million Americans? Did we do that for WW2? WW1? The Spainish Flu? No No No.

I'll meet you halfway. We sit at home for another month, build out HC capacity, then those of us who choose not to self-isolate, go about our daily lives. You're making a capacity argument only. If HC capacity exists, then its back to our daily lives. Immuno-comprised Americans should self-isolate until an effective vaccine hits the market. It's not rocket science. We're not going into a total societal breakdown scenario cause the sickies are paranoid and demand everyone stay at home. I'm sorry you've got underlying conditions (as do my parents), but playing this Road Warrior game for months on end, doesn't fly. Theyre already talking riots and looting fomenting in Italy. MANY MORE PEOPLE WILL DIE FROM STARVATION AND LOOTING AND SOCIAL BREAKDOWN THEN THE VIRUS ITSELF.

Cure will not be worse then the disease. What goes around comes around. Just as the healthy are now taking massive financial pain for the sick folk, the sick folk will have to take some pain for the healthy, once its reasonable to do so. Nobody is flushing our way of life down the drain for the Wuflu.

Just stay the fuck home for 3 - 4 weeks that is all....

but most of you are too arrogant or stupid to follow directions so this is where we are at...

 

[Tsing Tao]

Dr Tao, yet that is exactly what Healthcare professionals who have years of pandemic experience are saying. Isolation is the absolute best approach to overcome this pandemic alongside proper hygiene and face mask protection. Works in most countries where people trust their pandemic experts. But then there always some who seem to know it better. I bet if things get worse (which it seems it will) martial law will be enacted and those who still think they know better incarcerated and later fined and sued for endangering the public.

Of course Isolation is the best approach to ensure people don't get infected. Its like abstinence being the best way to ensure you never get pregnant (or get someone pregnant). Duh.

The issue isn't that isolation isn't the best solution to preventing infection, but balancing the infection concern against the destruction of the economy. If the economy ran on its own and didn't require us and we could all sit at home on Netflix our whole lives, then of course your solution would be the best.

But it isn't. Therefore we have to consider what happens when we follow your suggested path (and we're going to be reaping what we sow on that for a long, long time - hope it was worth it).

 

[Tsing Tao]

It's not just the number deaths. It's that the economy will anyway be completely crippled for many months if not over a year if infections will reach the majority in employment. Not everyone will get infected in the same 2 weeks. It will spread out over a long period of time and even if you let infected people work... their productivity would be so severely limited that it would have a much worse effect on the economy than shutting it down completely to bring the number of total infections down to manageable levels

It didn't cripple the economy when H1N1 infected an estimated 60.5M Americans, and it isnt likely it wouldn't here either.

 

[Tsing Tao]

Most businesses are considered essential and operating either in person or remotely. Only thing closed really are schools, restaurants and bars (unless they have take out) and retail/gyms/movie theaters.

So ....you are not alone working Mr. Essential haha

Yeah, "work from home". Always love that.

 

[Hotcakes]

It's not just the number deaths. It's that the economy will anyway be completely crippled for many months if not over a year if infections will reach the majority in employment. Not everyone will get infected in the same 2 weeks. It will spread out over a long period of time and even if you let infected people work... their productivity would be so severely limited that it would have a much worse effect on the economy than shutting it down completely to bring the number of total infections down to manageable levels

These numbers show about a 25 percent hospitalization rate for those that test positive. However, due to lack of adequate testing , we have a much smaller denominator (positive cases). As mass testing becomes available, positive cases will multiply (denominator) while hospitalizations will remain constant. Those that need hospital care are going to the hospital regardless. So we know the numerator (hospitalizations and consequently > ICU admittances > deaths) is accurate.

What that means is that in reality, we have a much larger positive case number then currently being reported (due to the CDCs horrendous failure to developed rapid mass testing like the South Koreans and Taiwanese). So when Abbott gets their 5 mins test out were going to see a mushroom explosion in positive tests (largely asymptomatic and mild cases.....ppl walking around who didn't know they had it), but the absolute hospitalization numbers stay the same (as anyone dying or deathly ill will find their way to the hospital for urgent care)

So that current ~25 percent hospitalization estimate will drop considerably after mass testing roll out. Maybe 10 percent hospitalization? Perhaps less ?

 

[CaptainObvious]

It didn't cripple the economy when H1N1 infected an estimated 60.5M Americans, and it isnt likely it would here either.

The difference, the huge gigantic utterly enormous difference between H1N1 and this is we didn't have a media doing a hourly body count whipping up as much panic as they possibly can. Consequently every MF'er with a nasal drip is running to the f'n hospital instead of just staying home and sweating it out. What we need to do is mandate only critically ill will be seen, and I mean unable to drive themselves in critical. Another thing, the other enormous elephant in the room is no matter what we do now, this whole deal plays out again come November/December. This virus isn't going to magically disappear and it's extremely unlikely that we'll have a vaccine.

 

[jem]

you are a smart guy... how would you prove your statement?
Data?
Expert guess?
Millions are in essential services and can not stay home...
they go home to family members every night.

What if the healthy were building antibodies at a much faster rate before the shut down... and now we are not?

What if the concern Fauci floated today is correct and we are going to experience this again in the fall.

you realize he is floating that out as his caveat if this shutdown turns out to be much less than optimal.

You know smart people are saying to him... this shutdown is wrecking our future. sure hope this works to stop the virus.

And he has to say...

Well I don't know... even if we slow the virius down now... it could come back when we cease social distancing.

Social distancing might fail.

We can do it for 3 to 4 weeks if.....

EVERYONE WOULD STAY THE FUCK HOME.

That easy. But since people are too stupid or arrogant and keep flooding the hospitals with more cases....this is where we are at.

 

[FrankInLa]

Sure, we don't know a lot of the variables. Hence any suggestion that reopening the economy sooner than later is a better option is nothing but wild guessing and conjecture. In the end decisions still have to be made in light of limited information. As human beings and a civilized society most humans will still choose life and health over Mammon, even if that would in extreme cases mean to go to sleep starving.

its just that an idea that we are helping the economy in the long run by shutting down now for a period of time. We don't know what is an optimal time of shutdown... its a guess.

until you know how many Americans were infected and building antibodies, you don't know how effective the ramp is even the shape of the curves.

its highly unlikely shutting down the whole state of CA at once would have been as optimal as shutting down parts at a time....

its clearly causing an under utilization of capacity in a big city like San Diego right now? Was the full shutdown beneficial... how do you measure it.
how are you weighting the variables in the model?

How do we know anything is a good thing without knowing how many have already been exposed.

depending on infection ratios the ramp might just be stretching this out too long.

It might be great it might be overdone... in many areas.... we just don't have the data.

If you think you know... you don't understand.
I don't understand how any is arguing stridently about any of this..

its all models based on a lack of data because we have no experience.