What statistic could replace earnings in the "Amazon era?"

[farmerjohn1324]

fundamental analysis itself doesn’t tell you enough to make a prediction. If a company is generating tons of free cash, is the stock rich or cheap? It depends on the price of the stock and your forecasts for future free cash which fundamental analysis can help inform.

I'm not really talking about stocks. I'm talking about fundamentals of the economy as a whole. The stock market is just one part of that.

 

[newwurldmn]

I'm not really talking about stocks. I'm talking about fundamentals of the economy as a whole. The stock market is just one part of that.

same idea with macro economics.

 

[taowave]

What doesnt compute in your mind???
Fundamentals is all encompassing...Value vs Growth,Small cap vs Large cap...IMHO,its a tool,and its up to the trader how he wants to use it..And I have traded fundamental factor models in the past..

I think I know where you are going with this,but would be curious to hear your thoughts.

But the way I read what you previously posted is - funnymentals don't predict, you use them to predict. Which in my mind doesn't compute.

 

[ph1l]

Free cashflow is prob the most relevant.

What statistic should I be looking for on the financial statements? Earnings plus CAPEX? Am I on the right track?

To compare among different companies, try (free cashflow) / marketCap.

 

[farmerjohn1324]

I think Operating Cash Flow might be what I'm looking for.

 

[taowave]

Backtest it,otherwise,move,on..

How Did you choose cash flow as opposed to FCF as opposed to unlevered?

Are you looking at it per share vs price vs,enterprise value etc???

I think Operating Cash Flow might be what I'm looking for.

 

[farmerjohn1324]

Backtest it,otherwise,move,on..

How Did you choose cash flow as opposed to FCF as opposed to unlevered?

Are you looking at it per share vs price vs,enterprise value etc???

Not looking at "vs" anything necessarily...

Because it's FCF plus CAPEX. Makes sense to me. It's what they could have made if they didn't reinvest in themself.

 

[taowave]

Yes,some industries are,far more "capex" intensive than others..

You can't just look at operating cash flow in and of itself..Just like you can't look at absolute sales or revenues..

Basically,it's,either growth or some relative measure(multiple)

 

[newwurldmn]

I think Operating Cash Flow might be what I'm looking for.

not for macro economic analysis

 

[farmerjohn1324]

not for macro economic analysis

That's correct. Looking at individual companies would be considered micro-.