What statistic could replace earnings in the "Amazon era?"

[farmerjohn1324]

I can predict i will die when im older. Your point is foolish at best.

It is possible to have predictions that are based on solid logic. Such as when I posted that the S&P would return to at least 3100 shortly (I think I posted this back in April) and it only took 2 months to happen.

I can predict that if corona vaccines are effective and distributed in mass, that economies will improve. I cannot predict how much the shutdown affected things in the longer-term.

Even if a prediction isn't with 100% certainty, then I can still say something should probably happen, meaning that it has a >50% chance of happening (or even 70%-90%).

 

[IamTheCasino]

Prediction based on solid logic doesnt go according to plan a lot of the time. Probably happening and it actually happening are different things.

You sound like the type who reads something in a book but then when it comes down to actually performing the task you have no idea wtf you are doing even though you "know what to do"

Again, foolish. Probably =/= certainty. So again, retarded to talk about being able to predict anything when it comes to the market. You are guessing at best.

I know that might be a hard pill to swallow but its the truth of the matter.

 

[farmerjohn1324]

Prediction based on solid logic doesnt go according to plan a lot of the time. Probably happening and it actually happening are different things.

You sound the type who reads something in a book but then when it comes down to actually performing the task you have no idea wtf you are doing even though you "know what to do"

Again, foolish.

Well actually I backed out of my "buy MESM20 and hold until 3100" trade because I decided to focus on my real job and quit "gambling". I would have made a ridiculously high % return if I stuck with it.

Does anyone know the answer to the original question? We've gone way off topic.

 

[IamTheCasino]

Made a high % gambling. Tells me all i Need to know about what type of trader you are.

you speak in terms of trying to predict what will happen instead of speaking in terms of the percentage of probability of something happening. I can almost guarantee if you had the some thought process over time that "high % gambling return" wouldnt amount to jack shit and you would be here crying about a massive loss. Or maybe it would have, who knows - again predictions are nothing.

Just because it would have worked out this time doesnt mean it would have over 20+ trades. Trying to predict anything is a fools errand. Continue on if thats your thing. Peace.

 

[xandman]

Companies like Amazon are about top line Revenue.

Additionally, Revenue correlates best with Amazon stock performance. Intuitively, we know that revenue is not a figure that they can mess around with that much.

Here is a hip shot analysis. Various ratios normalized to their 5 year average then charted. We probably don't have to look at an Amazon chart to see that P/S (blue) has been tracking closely.

Oops. Price/Cashflow (yellow) is best by virtue of it's stability. The stock price is already baked into a ratio. Anyway, worth looking into. Try a Value Line sheet.

 

[farmerjohn1324]

Made a high % gambling. Tells me all i Need to know about what type of trader you are.

you speak in terms of trying to predict what will happen instead of speaking in terms of the percentage of probability of something happening. I can almost guarantee if you had the some thought process over time that "high % gambling return" wouldnt amount to jack shit and you would be here crying about a massive loss.

Just because it would have worked out this time doesnt mean it would have over 20+ trades.

If there's no way to increase your odds to >50% by your own knowledge, then there is no point. Might as well go play roulette or stick to your day job.

My prediction that MESM20 would go to 3100 "at some point" was a high probability. I'm kind of surprised how quickly it happened honestly.

Hence why I would only risk real money on things I see as being high probability.

My prediction was obviously based on macroeconomics. I never said anyone could predict anything with 100% accuracy (or even close).

 

[Tradex]

Prediction based on solid logic doesnt go according to plan a lot of the time.

True.

In fact the market is anything but logical, especially in the short term.

 

[farmerjohn1324]

True.

In fact the market is anything but logical, especially in the short term.

You should read "Alchemy of Finance" by George Soros. There is rhyme and reason to the markets, but even the best economists on the planet haven't gotten it down to a science.

Often the people who move the markets are illogical.

 

[Tradex]

Often the people who move the markets are illogical

Yes, that's precisely how trends are created.

If traders were 100% logical (like Spock in Star Trek) the markets would IMMEDIATELY move from one price equilibrium to the next, and we wouldn't be able to make any money from such moves.

 

[SunTrader]

Every trade or investment, that isn't just a hunch or shot in the dark, is based on a prediction of some sort whether using FA or TA or a combination.

The fundamentalist says company X has had Y number of quarters of increasing earnings or revenue or free cash flow or whatever so probabilities say this will continue extending uptrend - for at least the next quarter.

How is that any different from the technician saying company X has Y number of quarters of higher highs/higher lows or this squiggly line is above that squiggly line so probabilities say uptrend will continue - for at least the next quarter?