What Marketsurfer Believes

[marketsurfer]

What does adaptive market HYPOTHESIS have to do with your point that the markets are random?

Again, you are elevating something to what it isn't. Lo offered no evidence that would lead one to use it as a working basis for analysing the markets, and nothing to prove randomness.

Huh? it has nothing to do with my premise. The question was has the random market theory been disproven and I offered an alternative to it which is said to have disproved it. SO have ideas like stocks tend to climb for 6 months after the earnings have been upwardly revised--- the Price Drivers Single Stock Model takes this factor into account. surf

 

[justrading]

I like looking at the ocean and my wife. In all seriousness, I am not talking about scalping minute by minute, but rather planned short term trades where orders are placed in advance to price moving events, sometimes straddled if the Price Drivers are uncertain--- the market isn't "watched" intraday physically, but rather via alerts-- this provides the freedom to do other things--- surf

Alerts? IB actually allows conditional orders, and you get an email advising of a fill.

 

[marketsurfer]

If anyone doubts the longevity and skill of the marketsurfer-- see the stock picks below from 11 years ago---- surf

 

[marketsurfer]

Alerts? IB actually allows conditional orders, and you get an email advising of a fill.

Ok, I don't get the point. surf

 

[justrading]

Huh? it has nothing to do with my premise. The question was has the random market theory been disproven and I offered an alternative to it which is said to have disproved it. SO have ideas like stocks tend to climb for 6 months after the earnings have been upwardly revised--- the Price Drivers Single Stock Model takes this factor into account. surf

So you now say the markets are not random?

 

[marketsurfer]

So you now say the markets are not random?

They are random unless you have an informational or other edge.

 

[justrading]

Ok, I don't get the point. surf

Read your post about not watching the markets and getting alerts. I'm saying alerts are superfluous.

 

[justrading]

They are random unless you have an informational or other edge.

So you offer an alternative that is said to have disproved RMH, but still maintain markets are random. Stop wriggling Surf, if you don't have integrity this discussion is pointless.

 

[londonkid]

april fool. got yah.

 

[marketsurfer]

So you offer an alternative that is said to have disproved RMH, but still maintain markets are random. Stop wriggling Surf, if you don't have integrity this discussion is pointless.

Random market theory is applicable to noise traders ( past price only). When did I say I disproved the theory? Information ( not illegal). has always tilted the odds in the traders favor--- but sometimes that doesnt even work. The theory doesnt take into account asymmetrical information gathering.

We were invested in a copper trading hedgefund that basically owned the entire supply chain of the commodity--- you couldnt get closer to the source--- we lost big time in this fund-- we pulled out and the next month the fund was up 80%. Oh well, nothing can be done about it after it happened. surf