What Marketsurfer Believes

Status
Not open for further replies.
marketsurfer said:
In an effort to correct the general confusion about Marketsurfer's trading, market and life philosophy, I thought it a wise move to clarify on this thread. This is not a static list and it will be updated and even changed completely over time.


1. Successful trading takes far more than studying past price, price, volume or any derivative related to past price for the retail trader.

2. The past does not repeat but it can rhyme with the future but not in a predictive or consistently profitable manner.

3. Luck is a tremendously powerful force that can be used for both success and failure in the stock market

4. Embrace randomness in life. it is a sure way to find success

5. Price charts are extremely deceptive and should only be used for descriptive or illustrative purposes-- for this they are perfect.

6. Beware of Technical analysis. It is very seductive due to the way we are wired. It is only effective for describing what has happened or explaining concepts to investors who prefer pictures.

7. Look for causes, not effects when attempting to make trading decisions.

8. Price is the effect, not the cause of every move therefore "price action" and other price based methods are fatally flawed from the start.

9. Beware of anyone who says the same method has been profitable for a number of market cycles, who uses scientific words without support, who makes claims based on fatally flawed premises.

10. Trade what you think based on research into cause, not what you see as the market is designed to deceive.

To be continued.....

surf
More...

Surf random walk theory has been proven wrong and over the long run randomness of an individual event gets washed away....
 
dealmaker said:
Surf random walk theory has been proven wrong and over the long run randomness of an individual event gets washed away....
More...

The adaptive market theory is another way to look at the market but I fail to see how it can help profitability---- however, lo's son is one mean chess player!. Thanks! surf
 
Last edited:
justrading said:
Fascinating, the random walk hypothesis has been elevated to fact. I must have missed something along the way.
More...


Check adaptive market theory. that's really the most cogent antithesis to the random walk-- but i don't find it practical. surf
 
14. Trading is not a solo endeavor. Price reading profit making savants are pure fantasy. Cultivate relationships and socialize-- relationship arbitrage is key to stay on the cutting edge of the changing financial market. Add value to others so value is exchanged back to you. Everyone can help you and everyone needs help in one way or the other.
 
onemoreshot said:
So what are these money makers looking at if not charts?
More...


I like looking at the ocean and my wife. In all seriousness, I am not talking about scalping minute by minute, but rather planned short term trades where orders are placed in advance to price moving events, sometimes straddled if the Price Drivers are uncertain--- the market isn't "watched" intraday physically, but rather via alerts-- this provides the freedom to do other things--- surf
 
marketsurfer said:
Check adaptive market theory. that's really the most cogent antithesis to the random walk-- but i don't find it practical. surf
More...
What does adaptive market HYPOTHESIS have to do with your point that the markets are random?

Again, you are elevating something to what it isn't. Lo offered no evidence that would lead one to use it as a working basis for analysing the markets, and nothing to prove randomness.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top