Good question. My firms edge comes from modeling scenarios across price. For example, what impact might there be on AAPL if the USD drops 20 bips? We try to make our models as sophisticated as possible without forgetting credo that it is better to be generally right than to be specifically wrong.
Many times there's information embedded in a company's 10K/10Q/SEC filing that will clue us into what can happen to price. For example, if a company is sitting on $5B of cash but has $3B of bonds maturing in 1 year, we can adjust the statement to value the company based upon the sum of additional cash flows between now and the payment less the payment. With a price range defined, we then model in events--for example, small dips with 1-3% fluctuations in the daily price of the S&P 500 or of individual company stock.
Trading markets is like playing chess. Rookies play the piece in front of them, but pros build out strategies to win the game.