You are too modest.as i said earlier: this is not a thread about me
What it takes to develop a profitable trading system?
- Thread starter Aquarians
- Start date
no, i just do not like to be the subject of the discussion, and i never make others the subject of the discussions too
I concur. I could show someone what I do but I cant teach how to react to what the market does. many systems are good but without the feeling of knowing when to act they may not make money
Let's say I'm convinced that 90% (perhaps more) of the successful traders are just random survivors. Not skill but luck.
If you're very risk-adverse, you would be profitable in theory but in practice you get no opportunities. If you "step into the warzone" too much, you will lose. So there's a fine line between too much and too little, which smells too much as luck to me.
If you're very risk-adverse, you would be profitable in theory but in practice you get no opportunities. If you "step into the warzone" too much, you will lose. So there's a fine line between too much and too little, which smells too much as luck to me.
In the grand scheme of things, does it matter? I would rather be a dumb investor in the current market, without skill but gets 30% return than a smart one getting 5% during the lone bear of 1973-1982. Of course I should not be too greedy and should keep taking money off the table. In other words, I would rather be luck than be good.
You just proved that you still have a long way to go, and have almost no clue what to do to become successful as a trader.
Successful traders are surely not random survivors. And they need skills. The fact that you don't have these skills brings you to your conclusion (which is wrong). You don't see or understand why it is not random.
You can be risk-adverse and have plenty of opportunities.
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Ironchef, looking back at historical charts, we are in unchartered territory. In other words the markets are not facing an upper resistance line created from the previous Bull Market.
Example:
2003-2007 Bull Market was facing the previous Bull Markets (1994-2000) Resistance of 1550.
Interesting enough what we are now facing is the Federal Reserves, Federal Fund Rate.
In every past historical example of the last several decades, whenever the Federal Funds rate hits the 4.00% to 5.00% range, a Bull Market usually converts to a Bear Market.
The most telling and detailed chart on this subject is below:
https://www.crystalbull.com/stock-market-timing/Fed-Funds-Prime-Rate-chart/
Fed Funds Prime Interest Rate Chart as Stock Market Indicator
Note:
Top Chart: SP500 price chart.
Bottom chart: Fed Fund Rate - Green line / Prime Rate - Purple line /
CPI - Yellow line
Thank you.----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ironchef, looking back at historical charts, we are in unchartered territory. In other words the markets are not facing an upper resistance line created from the previous Bull Market.
Example:
2003-2007 Bull Market was facing the previous Bull Markets (1994-2000) Resistance of 1550.
Interesting enough what we are now facing is the Federal Reserves, Federal Fund Rate.
In every past historical example of the last several decades, whenever the Federal Funds rate hits the 4.00% to 5.00% range, a Bull Market usually converts to a Bear Market.
The most telling and detailed chart on this subject is below:
https://www.crystalbull.com/stock-market-timing/Fed-Funds-Prime-Rate-chart/
Fed Funds Prime Interest Rate Chart as Stock Market Indicator
Note:
Top Chart: SP500 price chart.
Bottom chart: Fed Fund Rate - Green line / Prime Rate - Purple line /
CPI - Yellow line
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I just noticed you live in Southern CA. We just moved from Southern CA (Carlsbad) in Sept
2016 to cold and snowy North Eastern WA (2 miles from the North Western Pan Handle
of Idaho). We went from being 1 block from the beach in Carlsbad, 60 to 80 degrees year around, to 20-30 degree winters with snow, trapped like a mushroom indoors.
I really miss SoCal! (We moved here because family and friends live here.)
Congratulations on your move!
It is a good thing, a smart real estates guy would do, leave the high price SoCal house to someone else, bank your profit and buy two, bigger and nicer houses in Idaho.
If you miss the beach, you can always come back for a visit here and there.It is similar to the smart money professional traders taking money off the table while mom and pop retails like me rush in to buy.
best wishes and enjoy Idaho, it is a nice place.