What if the Pre fails? (PALM)

Funny that you say a "true laptop in your pocket" When in fact a laptop costs about the same.

When iphones first came on sale they only sold 270k units in that quarter. Now we all know how hyped up iphone was and they only did 270k units in that quarter. You think pre can beat that? When iphone came out, everyone was rich from taking home equity lines out of their homes. Today, people are broke and they dont care as much about having the latest gadgets. They are more worried about their jobs and their future. But lets say Pre somehow matches iphones sales for that first quarter they were available. Wall st. will do the math like this...270k x 8 = 2.16 million units. Wall St. has said they need to sell 10 million units in 2 years to justify a 13 dollar stock price. So do the math there and you see we will probably see a 3 dollar stock price.

Look at what pre did too for the opening. They only gave 50 units to each sprint and they give 6 units to each best buy and radio shack. There are about 1,000 best buy stores in the US and im not sure about radio shack. I'm thinking this is part of the marketing plan. Only give 6 units out to the stores so they can run a headline next week that all the stores "sold out" of their pre's. Well yeah....there was only 6,000 units shipped to bestbuy!

To put it in more perspective...in order to justify a 13 dollar stock price...they have to sell 416,000 units per month, every month for 24 months.

Pre might try to hype that they can do this, but i dont think they can. Even iphone tried to hype that they would sell 45 million units by this year back in 2007. Yet as of 2Q this year they had only sold 21 million.

http://www.appleinsider.com/article..._should_top_45_million_by_2009_says_firm.html

Pre is going down and i think people will realize it right away.
 
Im not sure about the 13 price either. They may have a great launch priced in, and it can only disappoint. Sell the news. I wouldn't buy on Monday either, I don't see how sales can beat with so few phones and a dead consumer. What I do believe is this is the best phone I have ever seen. I would be interested in any serious dips.
 
Quote from Illum:

Im not sure about the 13 price either. They may have a great launch priced in, and it can only disappoint. Sell the news. I wouldn't buy on Monday either, I don't see how sales can beat with so few phones and a dead consumer. What I do believe is this is the best phone I have ever seen. I would be interested in any serious dips.
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You know what else is a great product? Sirius Satelite radio. I love that thing as its so much better than a regular radio. Its great when i travel 1000 miles in my car for a vaction and can still listen to the same stations i listen to at home instead of finding other stations every 150 miles. But i sure wouldnt buy the stock even though i love the product.

PALM is definately priced in as if they already sold the 10 million units. There is hardly any upside, but there is PLENTY of downside.
 
Wii made very strong come back for Nintendo, so it is very hard to tell if pre can do the same for palm or not.

I wouldn't buy iphone cause the battery life is kind short, and hard to replace new battery. Rimm has problem with basic phone functions, not a great smart phone either, still a e-mail device.
 
Quote from number22:
I wouldn't buy iphone cause the battery life is kind short, and hard to replace new battery. Rimm has problem with basic phone functions, not a great smart phone either, still a e-mail device.
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It's clear that there aren't a lot of businessmen on here. The BlackBerry is the default device for business people. I know what you're saying, but I think you're underrating the Blackberry just a bit. I have a Curve 8330 and I can surf the net just fine, access streaming content like BBC news updates just fine, and I can carry on IM conversations via Blackberry messenger. Their PIN system is a text message-like system with no character limit.

The thing about the iPhone is that the GUI and the browser are so slick. That's what makes it the best thing for a retail customer. That and the developer community. Most apps are toys but there are some useful ones.

As far as I understand it, you can't surf the net and talk on the phone at the same time with an iPhone, right? I can.

I just think it's a bit misleading to say that Blackberries have a problem with 'basic phone functions'. If you want to elaborate, I would welcome debate.
 
Quote from traderNik:

I just think it's a bit misleading to say that Blackberries have a problem with 'basic phone functions'. If you want to elaborate, I would welcome debate.
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Experienced with 9530, it keeps dropping calls if new message come in, new firmware help reduces statics during phone call, but not that much. The OS is not stable, felt like freezing a lot. Rimm should keep up its e-mail server end secure and stable, numeric e-mail outages. I hope the new 3g smart phone will solve all these problems, of course with longer battery life.
 
Quote from number22:

Experienced with 9530, it keeps dropping calls if new message come in, new firmware help reduces statics during phone call, but not that much. The OS is not stable, felt like freezing a lot. Rimm should keep up its e-mail server end secure and stable, numeric e-mail outages. I hope the new 3g smart phone will solve all these problems, of course with longer battery life.
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Oh, the Storm? Ok, I can see how you would think that if you had a Storm. That thing is by far RIMM's biggest mistake. In fact I was talking to my carrier about getting a phone to tide me over until the Tour is released (maybe that's the 3G phone you're talking about, not sure) and the rep told me not to get a Storm, but to get a Curve instead.

My Blackberries have been perfectly stable, they're just very workmanlike, not even close to the cool factor of the iPhone.
 
even if the phone is a success; which i think it will be, though not an iphone killer, there is little upside for now palm.

the phone is actually quite amazing, but palm is definitely a short at least for the short run. once the price is a bit lower, they may be a solid choice as they should be releasing more skyos phones, as well as moving the pre to more carriers, something the iphone has not done.
 
Quote from number22:

Experienced with 9530, it keeps dropping calls if new message come in, new firmware help reduces statics during phone call, but not that much. The OS is not stable, felt like freezing a lot. Rimm should keep up its e-mail server end secure and stable, numeric e-mail outages. I hope the new 3g smart phone will solve all these problems, of course with longer battery life.
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I have the 9530 too and as much as I wish I had an iPhone, I really don't have any of the problems you have. New messages don't affect my calls and the phone never freezes. Sounds like a problem with the phone itself or an old OS. Are you still running .75? If so, it's time to upgrade to .148.
 
While I didn't get Palm Pre today, instead I got palm Centro. (I know I am cheap. :D ).

While I was at the shop, service tech told me that my old blackberry 9530 only runs on 2g network, but Palm Centro will be on 3g network. (I had suspicion that cellprovider keep upgrading their networks to push people to switch their phones, cause the newer network can stuff more users per cell.)

Anyway, all these smart-phones made my head spinning.
 
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