What if the Pre fails? (PALM)

[CA04]

Palm hit a new 52 wk high today over $10. All this hype is based on people betting the new smart phone (pre) will be a success. I think people who can buy a smartphone in this economy will buy from apple or RIM.

My thesis is that if the Pre fails to sell well and blowout expectations than PALM will take a huge hit. However, if it is a success that the shorts will get squeezed (I think over 40% are short)

My strategy is to sell in-the-money naked calls 7.5 strike price. (Aug expiration) I know all the risks involved and will exit the trade if it goes against me.

What does everything else think about Palm's prospects? Do you think everything rests on Pre's success or not? My only worry is that Palm gets taken over and I get killed on the options I wrote.

 

[lolatency]

Palm is dead. Their products have been garbage for quite some time. They are finished.

 

[Hester]

Quote from lolatency:

Palm is dead. Their products have been garbage for quite some time. They are finished.

I guess thats why they are hitting 52 week highs in the middle of a recession.

Their products are not garbage, your posts are.

 

[bwolinsky]

Quote from lolatency:

Palm is dead. Their products have been garbage for quite some time. They are finished.

 

[lolatency]

Quote from Hester:

I guess thats why they are hitting 52 week highs in the middle of a recession.

Their products are not garbage, your posts are.

Have you really ever used any of their products for any extended period of time? They're horrible. Apple, Google, and RIMM will finish them off.

 

[powerfade]

Quote from CA04:

people who can buy a smartphone in this economy will buy from apple or RIM.

My thesis is that if the Pre fails to sell well and blowout expectations than PALM will take a huge hit. However, if it is a success that the shorts will get squeezed (I think over 40% are short)

RIMM's iPhone killer, the Storm, isn't ready for prime time although they have moved quite a few units. I didn't buy one after hearing about all the potential problems and after demoing one. The clicky touchscreen idea didn't work and people are waiting for the Niagara from RIMM, due out this summer. However, it's not a full screen unit like the iPhone/Storm.

The fact is that there is a huge opportunity for a smartphone maker to step into the breach and provide a product that combines the email functionality of the Blackberry with the 'net capabilities/slickness of the iPhone OS. Isn't the Pre Windows mobile?

Can Palm do the job? I agree with the idea that if the Pre fails, that will be it for the company. However, it's foolish to say that the company is doomed until we see how the Pre does.

I believe www.endgadget.com had some articles about how Palm has financed this latest (last?) attempt.

 

[krazykarl]

The Touch Pro 2 is the next great phone.

 

[cstfx]

Quote from krazykarl:

The Touch Pro 2 is the next great phone.

Looks good but does it have push email like the RIMM products? And is Windows Mobile 6.1 up to the task? Still gonna be hard for all these phones to try and beat the features of RIMM.

 

[Cashdollar]

Pre = Last gasp of a dying company

 

[Illum]

Bought the Pre today for my girl. It is insane. I know now why ATT is willing to take heat from Apple to get this phone. Simply amazing, a true laptop in your pocket. I am blown away. As far as sales, a small sprint store in my area was sold out in about 2 hours. However, they only carried 60 and they said Radio Shack / Best buy were getting next to none if any. So not sure how sales will be early. But this thing is incredible and will be huge, I have zero doubt.