What-If China attacks Taiwan

[ET180]

There is no point to discuss with someone who based his most important argument on false information and lies.
Your reasoning for decoupling with China is that China threaten to kill US and western people, which is a complete lie。When I pointed this out, your reply never answer on this but posted other irrelevant links and switched to other topics.
LOL.

I don't feel your mind is ok and I won't reply to you anymore.

I cited 3 different recent mainstream publications highlighting the China threat to the US and the rest of the world. Here's another article where the heads of the FBI and MI5 issue the same warning.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/na...ue-strong-warning-threat-west-china-rcna36976

China is starting to throw its weight around and acting like a belligerent bully towards the US and other countries. That is a fact.

As far as "China threaten to kill US and western people, which is a complete lie". That's actually not what I said. Although, technically China has been killing US citizens for a long time via fentanyl trafficking. Indirectly, but they are knowingly doing it.

"While Mexico and China are the primary source countries for fentanyl and fentanyl-related substances trafficked directly into the United States, India is emerging as a source for finished fentanyl powder and fentanyl precursor chemicals."

https://www.dea.gov/sites/default/files/2020-03/DEA_GOV_DIR-008-20 Fentanyl Flow in the United States_0.pdf

<npr.org>/2020/11/17/916890880/we-are-shipping-to-the-u-s-china-s-fentanyl-sellers-find-new-routes-to-drug-user

Granted, I have limited compassion for someone who abuses drugs, but if the CCP wanted to stop it, they could. They don't care. Same reason they put restrictions on video games and social media internally, but for the US, no limits. Make that stuff as addictive as possible. What did they do with Covid? How transparent were they with that? Not very.

But back to the original point. If a country is actively engaging in cyber warfare, uses North Korea as a proxy, backs up Putin in their invasion / attempted takeover of Ukraine, has a long history of human rights violations, and has recently over the past few years become more belligerent towards US and other nations such as Canada and Australia which are not even any threat to China...it's long-past time to decouple and move supply chains out of China. Only a Chinese nationalist would disagree with that statement.

@ET180, I doubt the US can afford to stop trading with China
Much less the Euro idiots.
It would lead to doubling the current inflation rate, lead to mass unemployment, mass poverty and mass social unrest in the US and Europe b/c of exploding prices since many of the goods are coming from China. If that stops then good night, bro!...

Taiwan should accept the fact that it has no other chance but belonging to China,
and so should negotiate a good deal with China.
The US cannot protect Taiwan. They can't afford it! Don't believe the rhetoric of some US politicians, they just want to win some elections with such hollow but baseless words of allegedly helping Taiwan.

Of course the US could afford to stop trading with China. It's not like if China disappears that life on earth would cease to exist. In the short term, would it be inconvenient? Probably. But longer term we will be better off. Compare it to slavery. Slavery in America was evil and the worst thing that has happened to the country. Not only for the slaves, but also for the colonists. What would have happened to the plantation owners if they suddenly lost all their slaves? Sure, it would be hard without the cheap labor, but that held back development. It delayed automation simply because they could use slaves instead. If they did not have slaves, there would have been a much greater incentive to develop machinery to improve efficiency. Farming technology would have developed a lot faster. Same with China. Would be hard at first, but bringing jobs and manufacturing back to the US would make the US stronger and less dependent on Uyghur slave labor from China.

 

[optaiwan]

you must be joking. Taiwan has no intention to unify the whole China, while the current ruling party (DPP) do have the intention to be independent of China, they cannot say to say openly to cross the red line to make China has the legitimacy to invade Taiwan. Time has changed, and gone was the time when KMT ruled Taiwan before 2000 to present the "One China with respective interpretation" agenda(一中各表). To be precise, the chance that China and Taiwan will invake the war is still quite low, less than 2% in the next five years, simply because Taiwan is not that strategically important to China anymore. Also In game theory, the benefit associated with War between Taiwan strait is very small compared to its costs, not to mention that Foxconn will step in to persuade two sides to stay rational and Apple would also step in to stop the war otherwise its stock price would tank quite a lot. The current ruling party in Taiwan also knows the intricacy in dealing with Taiwan and China relationship. Nobody welcomes war for Chinese people. They have gone through too much in the past 150 years.

 

[ET180]

With its such vast population, advancement in technology and relatively abundant resources, I doubt it would need to export to sustain its economy. It can easily close its doors like North Korea and just produce enough for its citizens to survive and defend against outside invaders. The only difference is its people will still be relatively well off vs the North Koreans. It just depends on what the country wants. If it just wants a basic and even above-average standard of living, it can achieve that easily with a closed-door policy with no trading, no communication, no interactions with the rest of the world just like it did in the 80's. It's made enough money and technological advancement is at a saturation point anyway in the rest of the world, would China gain further by keeping its doors open; that's a question for China to answer.

The social unrest is really due to what the CCP believes is the inequitable distribution of wealth between the ultra-rich like Jack Ma and the peasant workers who work in dangerous construction projects that don't get paid at the end of the projects. This is why CCP is cracking down on all those privately owned extremely successful companies like Alibaba and Tencent to force them to cough up more money and to extend more control into those companies' managements. Once all those private companies are under CCP's control and their money is distributed more equitably across all population segments, the social unrest should die down especially that the CCP, unlike the West, is never hesitant to use more "effective" methods to persuade its people to live more peacefully.

I think ultimately China is preparing to take over Taiwan via military means if it comes down to it and is also prepping its people and the entire country for a closed-door economy at least to the West if that's the ultimate consequence. China is fully aware of the consequences and the percussions that its takeover of Taiwan would bring but does it really care? China is not without friends or partners in the world. There are countries who are prepared to be friends with China due to the alignment of their interests with China. Countries like Russia, North Korea (maybe that's why Trump wanted to be more friendlier with Russia and North Korea), even the Taliban come to mind and each will bring what China needs. Does China really need the West? In other words, what and how much does the West bring to China today? How much is the West worth to China? Can it really afford to lose the West? This is what China is calculating right now. And everything when it comes down to it is just math and we all know what China is good at. China doesn't really have any moral standards when it comes to making friends in the world; all it's interested in is how much benefit vs. cost this country will bring in making friends with that country so as long as this country's reward/risk ratio is high, China will make friends with them. Throughout its history, China's made friends with countries ruled by dictators, fascists, terrorists, hey if it's got what China needs, it's game. Everything else is just internal affairs of that country and China does not interfere with internal affairs of another country as long as the issues in their "internal affairs" don't turn around and affect China in any negative way. That's always been China's policy. Whatever you do within your border is your business as long as you don't affect China's business.

This is the cold hard reality that I think the West and China need to look at with regards to Taiwan.

North Korea isn't really a good example of a closed door country to cite. South Korea is a prosperous country, high standard of living. Right next door, you have a ton of people starving to death, soldiers full of tape worms, and anyone who tries to leave will be shot dead. Sounds like a wonderful place.

https://www.cnn.com/2017/11/22/health/north-korea-defector-parasites-health

I don't think China is there yet. Who wants to live in a country that is completely closed off to the more desirable places in the world. I don't know of many people who want to move, work, live, and retire from China. Live in a small 300 sq apartment, eat dog, breath soot, get locked in your small apartment for days without food whenever the government decides to do a complete lockdown only because their nationalism won't allow them to admit their local vaccine doesn't work and turn to a Western drug company that makes vaccines that kinda works. Lots of people still want to come to the US despite the horrible systemic racism that apparently exists here. I know people who waited 10 years on a work visa (indentured servitude) just to get permanent residency. If China gets heavily sanctioned, and becomes a pariah like Russia for invading another country, I don't think it will go well. Time will tell. Hopefully it won't come to that. But regardless, it's time to decouple.

 

[wmwmw]

I cited 3 different recent mainstream publications highlighting the China threat to the US and the rest of the world. Here's another article where the heads of the FBI and MI5 issue the same warning.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/na...ue-strong-warning-threat-west-china-rcna36976

China is starting to throw its weight around and acting like a belligerent bully towards the US and other countries. That is a fact.

As far as "China threaten to kill US and western people, which is a complete lie". That's actually not what I said. Although, technically China has been killing US citizens for a long time via fentanyl trafficking. Indirectly, but they are knowingly doing it.

"While Mexico and China are the primary source countries for fentanyl and fentanyl-related substances trafficked directly into the United States, India is emerging as a source for finished fentanyl powder and fentanyl precursor chemicals."

https://www.dea.gov/sites/default/files/2020-03/DEA_GOV_DIR-008-20 Fentanyl Flow in the United States_0.pdf

<npr.org>/2020/11/17/916890880/we-are-shipping-to-the-u-s-china-s-fentanyl-sellers-find-new-routes-to-drug-user

Granted, I have limited compassion for someone who abuses drugs, but if the CCP wanted to stop it, they could. They don't care. Same reason they put restrictions on video games and social media internally, but for the US, no limits. Make that stuff as addictive as possible. What did they do with Covid? How transparent were they with that? Not very.

But back to the original point. If a country is actively engaging in cyber warfare, uses North Korea as a proxy, backs up Putin in their invasion / attempted takeover of Ukraine, has a long history of human rights violations, and has recently over the past few years become more belligerent towards US and other nations such as Canada and Australia which are not even any threat to China...it's long-past time to decouple and move supply chains out of China. Only a Chinese nationalist would disagree with that statement.



Of course the US could afford to stop trading with China. It's not like if China disappears that life on earth would cease to exist. In the short term, would it be inconvenient? Probably. But longer term we will be better off. Compare it to slavery. Slavery in America was evil and the worst thing that has happened to the country. Not only for the slaves, but also for the colonists. What would have happened to the plantation owners if they suddenly lost all their slaves? Sure, it would be hard without the cheap labor, but that held back development. It delayed automation simply because they could use slaves instead. If they did not have slaves, there would have been a much greater incentive to develop machinery to improve efficiency. Farming technology would have developed a lot faster. Same with China. Would be hard at first, but bringing jobs and manufacturing back to the US would make the US stronger and less dependent on Uyghur slave labor from China.

I have told you I have no desire to discuss with someone who used false information and lies to make arguments. Since you continue post replies to me, which are the same quality as your previous posts, I have to put you on ignore.

 

[wmwmw]

you must be joking. Taiwan has no intention to unify the whole China, while the current ruling party (DPP) do have the intention to be independent of China, they cannot say to say openly to cross the red line to make China has the legitimacy to invade Taiwan. Time has changed, and gone was the time when KMT ruled Taiwan before 2000 to present the "One China with respective interpretation" agenda(一中各表). To be precise, the chance that China and Taiwan will invake the war is still quite low, less than 2% in the next five years, simply because Taiwan is not that strategically important to China anymore. Also In game theory, the benefit associated with War between Taiwan strait is very small compared to its costs, not to mention that Foxconn will step in to persuade two sides to stay rational and Apple would also step in to stop the war otherwise its stock price would tank quite a lot. The current ruling party in Taiwan also knows the intricacy in dealing with Taiwan and China relationship. Nobody welcomes war for Chinese people. They have gone through too much in the past 150 years.

Not only your statement is not true, also it is illogic.
Since you said Taiwan has no intention to unify the whole China, and Taiwan agree both Taiwan and China are part of one big China, then it is mainland China who should unify the whole China.
Of course Taiwan " has no intention" because its power is so small compared with power of mainland China, it has no ability to do it.
A cat has no intention to eat a tiger. But if someone kills the tiger and cuts its meat, the cat would be glad to eat the meat of the tiger. Anyone in the current Taiwan position would say the same words .But if China government collapse, Taiwan would immediately come back to mainland China to take the power.

 

[VicBee]

One thing I need to point out. Chiang Kai Shek didn't create a dictatorship in Taiwan. It was the predominant ruling party in Taiwan when it first landed in Taiwan but it never created a dictatorship but created a republic based on western democracy. All regions when occupied by a group of people all started with one predominant political organization at first and Taiwan is no exception.

From Wikipedia:
In 1987, martial law was lifted and Taiwan began a democratisation process, beginning with the abolition of the Temporary Provisions and culminating with the first direct president election in 1996.

I know, for Asians in general it's hard to differentiate dictatorship from democracy, partly because of cultural respect for hierarchy and authority. For example, Lee Kwan Yew is revered by Singaporean for all his accomplishments yet there is no question that he was a (benevolent) dictator. Even today in Taiwan's democracy the arguments in parliament sometimes end in major brawls, to the consternation of the West where such display of affection doesn't occur often anymore.

 

[earth_imperator]

This is China's view about the US, regarding Taiwan, as reported by the Russian news agency TASS:
"
Envoy says US to face crushing defeat if it interferes with China's domestic goals
Zhang Hanhui pointed out that, as numerous facts prove, the United States "is the real destroyer of international rules and world order, a source of increasing instability and uncertainty in today's world"

Chinese Ambassador to Russia Zhang Hanhui
© Sergei Bobylev/TASS

MOSCOW, August 10. /TASS/. The United States has not learned a lesson from its failed line in Ukraine and tried to do the same in Taiwan; Washington will suffer a crushing defeat here, Chinese Ambassador to Russia Zhang Hanhui said in an exclusive interview with TASS.

"[We are] on the way to our nation's most important goal: the reunification of the motherland. The Chinese people have an unwavering will, strong determination, full confidence and every opportunity to defend national sovereignty and national dignity," the diplomat stressed, "Instead of learning a lesson from its failed line on the Ukraine issue, the United States has artificially linked it to the Taiwan issue; an even greater crushing defeat awaits them."

Zhang Hanhui pointed out that, as numerous facts prove, the United States "is the real destroyer of international rules and world order, a source of increasing instability and uncertainty in today's world."

"US hegemonism and power politics have become the greatest challenge to the progress and peaceful development of human civilization," he added, "China strongly opposes the following misguided US actions: hegemony, intimidation and bullying. We hope that the United States will understand that the Cold War mentality and unilateral sanctions will get us nowhere, indirect wars and interference in the domestic affairs of other countries have no perspective".

"

 

[VicBee]

This is China's view about the US, regarding Taiwan, as reported by the Russian news agency TASS:
"
Envoy says US to face crushing defeat if it interferes with China's domestic goals
Zhang Hanhui pointed out that, as numerous facts prove, the United States "is the real destroyer of international rules and world order, a source of increasing instability and uncertainty in today's world"

Chinese Ambassador to Russia Zhang Hanhui
© Sergei Bobylev/TASS

MOSCOW, August 10. /TASS/. The United States has not learned a lesson from its failed line in Ukraine and tried to do the same in Taiwan; Washington will suffer a crushing defeat here, Chinese Ambassador to Russia Zhang Hanhui said in an exclusive interview with TASS.

"[We are] on the way to our nation's most important goal: the reunification of the motherland. The Chinese people have an unwavering will, strong determination, full confidence and every opportunity to defend national sovereignty and national dignity," the diplomat stressed, "Instead of learning a lesson from its failed line on the Ukraine issue, the United States has artificially linked it to the Taiwan issue; an even greater crushing defeat awaits them."

Zhang Hanhui pointed out that, as numerous facts prove, the United States "is the real destroyer of international rules and world order, a source of increasing instability and uncertainty in today's world."

"US hegemonism and power politics have become the greatest challenge to the progress and peaceful development of human civilization," he added, "China strongly opposes the following misguided US actions: hegemony, intimidation and bullying. We hope that the United States will understand that the Cold War mentality and unilateral sanctions will get us nowhere, indirect wars and interference in the domestic affairs of other countries have no perspective".

"

Jeez, now the US is scared...

 

[TheDawn]

North Korea isn't really a good example of a closed door country to cite. South Korea is a prosperous country, high standard of living. Right next door, you have a ton of people starving to death, soldiers full of tape worms, and anyone who tries to leave will be shot dead. Sounds like a wonderful place.

https://www.cnn.com/2017/11/22/health/north-korea-defector-parasites-health

I don't think China is there yet. Who wants to live in a country that is completely closed off to the more desirable places in the world. I don't know of many people who want to move, work, live, and retire from China. Live in a small 300 sq apartment, eat dog, breath soot, get locked in your small apartment for days without food whenever the government decides to do a complete lockdown only because their nationalism won't allow them to admit their local vaccine doesn't work and turn to a Western drug company that makes vaccines that kinda works. Lots of people still want to come to the US despite the horrible systemic racism that apparently exists here. I know people who waited 10 years on a work visa (indentured servitude) just to get permanent residency. If China gets heavily sanctioned, and becomes a pariah like Russia for invading another country, I don't think it will go well. Time will tell. Hopefully it won't come to that. But regardless, it's time to decouple.

Yes only time will tell but the West needs to be very careful on this issue. I feel if you really want to defend Taiwan to make sure it continues to be governed by a democratic regime, sanctions might not be effective or enough. China is after all, the second largest economy in the world. It is not Russia or Iraq. If you want to defend Taiwan's democracy, you might need to defend it with real stuff and not just with some sanctions, if and when it comes to that. I hope we are prepared for that. China is certainly prepping its people and the whole country for it.

That's what my previous post was trying to say.

 

[TheDawn]

From Wikipedia:
In 1987, martial law was lifted and Taiwan began a democratisation process, beginning with the abolition of the Temporary Provisions and culminating with the first direct president election in 1996.

I know, for Asians in general it's hard to differentiate dictatorship from democracy, partly because of cultural respect for hierarchy and authority. For example, Lee Kwan Yew is revered by Singaporean for all his accomplishments yet there is no question that he was a (benevolent) dictator. Even today in Taiwan's democracy the arguments in parliament sometimes end in major brawls, to the consternation of the West where such display of affection doesn't occur often anymore.

Arguing in parliament with physical fistfights is not a sign of dictatorship nor is it a display of affection. It's not a preferred method of getting your point across in debating issues but hey at least the politicians are fighting (literally) hard for you. And like I said before,

All regions when occupied by a group of people all started with one predominant political organization at first and Taiwan is no exception.

But that doesn't mean that the government created a dictatorship or intended to. Lee Kwan Yew of what he did in Singapore was a totally different story altogether. Taiwan is not Singapore.