what do you use to perdict the future?
- Thread starter bat1
- Start date
The goal is to forecast, not predict. I realize this sounds like splitting hairs but the two are distinctly different.
Regarding Charts:
Markets are geometric manifestations of human emotions bound by cycles in various time frames.
This can be observed and measured as energy. The key to an instruments behavior is gauging it's beginning impulse vector then projecting that forward. It will behave in the future as it has in the past; just different ratios.
I would advise to never to base a position on a forecast. The forecast is only used as additional confirmation or a heads-up when price and time converge.
Jumping in and out of the market hoping you'll get lucky is {prediction/gambling} a fools errand.
Regarding Charts:
Markets are geometric manifestations of human emotions bound by cycles in various time frames.
This can be observed and measured as energy. The key to an instruments behavior is gauging it's beginning impulse vector then projecting that forward. It will behave in the future as it has in the past; just different ratios.
I would advise to never to base a position on a forecast. The forecast is only used as additional confirmation or a heads-up when price and time converge.
Jumping in and out of the market hoping you'll get lucky is {prediction/gambling} a fools errand.
If you see a train barreling down a track all the info available is from the present and past, nevertheless you can draw some reasonable assumptions about the immediate future.
1. I am using proprietary blackbox I-Ching (Chinese book of Change) methodology to predict the future.
It's based on a proprietary autoregressive polymorphic hexogramm recombination technique, which utilizes the heteroskedasticity scaling effect in financial time series.
This is a highly sophisticated gamma-technique, which I am prepared to disclose to a select group of dedicated followers, for a special fee of only $17.
2. I use the Hoadley Probability calculator to try predict the future, with varying degrees of success:
http://www.hoadley.net/options/barrierprobs.aspx?
(you can get volatility estimates, an input for the calculator, from ivolatility.com, a free resource). The problem is this assumes you have an equal 50/50 chance of the price going up or down, so you can't predict direction, but you can predict price range, with some precision (assuming your volatility estimate is right).
It is a good tool.
3. I'm also trying to get Forecast Pro, a forecast software tool, to predict stock prices, but it's not very good at that. Although I have to say this: the confidence intervals, i.e. price range estimate, do catch the price range fairly well.
RandomZen
It's based on a proprietary autoregressive polymorphic hexogramm recombination technique, which utilizes the heteroskedasticity scaling effect in financial time series.
This is a highly sophisticated gamma-technique, which I am prepared to disclose to a select group of dedicated followers, for a special fee of only $17.
2. I use the Hoadley Probability calculator to try predict the future, with varying degrees of success:
http://www.hoadley.net/options/barrierprobs.aspx?
(you can get volatility estimates, an input for the calculator, from ivolatility.com, a free resource). The problem is this assumes you have an equal 50/50 chance of the price going up or down, so you can't predict direction, but you can predict price range, with some precision (assuming your volatility estimate is right).
It is a good tool.
3. I'm also trying to get Forecast Pro, a forecast software tool, to predict stock prices, but it's not very good at that. Although I have to say this: the confidence intervals, i.e. price range estimate, do catch the price range fairly well.
RandomZen
If you don't use a chart, you don't have the heart.
If you don't use a moving average, you're no more than a savage.
If you don't use Elliot Wave, you aren't very brave.
If you can't read candle formation, you're an abomination.
If price action eludes, you're really a stooge.
If you focus on P&L, you're trading will go to hell
And if you can't see the future, well...that just sucks for you pal
If you don't use a moving average, you're no more than a savage.
If you don't use Elliot Wave, you aren't very brave.
If you can't read candle formation, you're an abomination.
If price action eludes, you're really a stooge.
If you focus on P&L, you're trading will go to hell
And if you can't see the future, well...that just sucks for you pal
hey Rasko, this part didn't rhyme.
yea yea yea I know