what do you use to perdict the future?

[gqguy2003]

There are several things that can predict the future accurately when it comes to the ES.

#1
S&P PREMIUM
ES PREMIUM
NASDAQ PREMIUM
Notice on 5/22 at the precise moment the spoos hit a new low the SP PREM hit a new high for the day!. That is classic trend reversal with accuracy at almost 100%. But very interersting was that the ES PREM hit a new low for the day on the same bar. You want to know the future? Watch the ES drop below 882.00 on Tuesday 5/26/09 . Thats the predictive power of the premium and you anticipated this at 8:54 am on 5/22 which was another great reason to short the rally on Friday afternoon.

#2 GAPS!
Tracking gaps on the intraday ES is extremely predictive when using a 25 tick bar interval

ES GAP 25 tick bar
These 3 screen shots show you the future can be predicted!


Vix GAPS 7-40 tick bar

Notice the Vix gap at 31.72. (red dotted line). The trend reversal in the Vix Friday afternoon guaranteed you a short and you knew where the Vix was headed hours before it got there. Gaps above 33,36 and 36 on the Vix tell you where the Vix and the spoos are headed the week of May 26 2009. The low gap at 30.04 (green line) however cannot be ignored. This could temporarily push the spoos up again before they begin their inevitable decline.

Trin GAPS 50 tick bars
ADSPD GAPS 6-25 tick bars



#3 INTRADAY PATTERN
The spoos move in only 1 of 4 patterns every day. While not always easy to detect until mid to late morning, once you have a good idea of the pattern of the day you can have a highly accurate way to determine where your best exit will be while trading with the trend.

 

[gqguy2003]

Here is the ADSPD gap chart from 5/22/09
Another reason you expected a short on Friday was the two significant gaps at 69 and -24. Both were filled before the day was over.

Please excuse the reference to 3 ES charts on the previous post. There is only 1.

 

[Kevmeister]

Quote from bat1:

charts just show the past not the future, So what do you use
to perdict the future?

When I lose I always did the opposite of what I wanted to do on my next trade. But then it would go against me -- so I did the opposite of the opposite -- but I would still lose because I realized that I was back to square one when I did that -- so finally after many years of frustration -- I found a medium that was willing to locate a willing spirit to provide info on where the futures would be on any given date. It worked for awhile but then he had to incarnate back to earth and no other spirit was willing to risk it. So I stopped trading and now work at McDonalds as a evening manager.

 

[shortie]

Quote from bat1:

charts just show the past not the future, So what do you use
to perdict the future?

i've heard that nothing beats the third nipple!

 

[bat1]

Many pro traders do have a way to predict future trends

this was not a joke...to ask this question




I really don't think putting $100,000 trades just to think it will
go higher..is a very good way of doing it

Thanks to those who answered in a professional way..


Ed

 

[greg500]

You can read the instument traded without the use of charts. It takes a tremendous effort but you can adjust. You will not be able to predict the future but you can put the odds of probability in your favor.

Good trading and profits to all.

Greg

 

[RandomZen]

Quote from gqguy2003:

There are several things that can predict the future accurately when it comes to the ES.

Thats the predictive power of the premium

gqguy2003:

1) Interesting stuff. Just to make sure I undestand correctly:

if the futures contract is expensive vs the cash index (large premium), the price of the futures is likely to go down

and vice-versa

if the futures contract is cheap vs the cash index (large discount), the price of the futures contract is likely to go up

Am I understanding this correctly? So this is a sort of a mean reversion to fair value effect?

2)GAPS: how long can they take to get filled, I mean on average? Do you have an idea of when to get out, when you're tired of waiting for the gap to be filled?


Thanks

RandomZen

 

[RandomZen]

Quote from Kevmeister:

When I lose I always did the opposite of what I wanted to do on my next trade. But then it would go against me -- so I did the opposite of the opposite -- but I would still lose because I realized that I was back to square one when I did that

So I stopped trading and now work at McDonalds as a evening manager.

McDonald's or not, nothing beats salary You know you have a probability of X% (say, 95-99%) of getting $Y on date Z, every month.

Trading: you have a 50/50 chance of ending the week with a gain. And hopefully a higher probability of ending the month with a gain, if you're good.

Ideally, it would be great to play with other people's money. This way you can make riskier bets

Or become a broker, and get other people to embark on a life-long journey of finding THE system, while they pay you commissions along the way.

 

[gqguy2003]

Notice on 5/22 at the precise moment the spoos hit a new low the SP PREM hit a new high for the day!. That is classic trend reversal with accuracy at almost 100%. But very interersting was that the ES PREM hit a new low for the day on the same bar. You want to know the future? Watch the ES drop below 882.00 on Tuesday 5/26/09 . Thats the predictive power of the premium and you anticipated this at 8:54 am on 5/22 which was another great reason to short the rally on Friday afternoon.

Just as stated the spoos dropped below 882 however they did so earlier than expected. On 5/24/09 at 21:47 just as predicted by the Prem on 5/22 at 8:54 am.

 

[gqguy2003]

RandomZen wrote

1) if the futures contract is expensive vs the cash index (large premium), the price of the futures is likely to go down

and vice-versa

if the futures contract is cheap vs the cash index (large discount), the price of the futures contract is likely to go up

There are several ways to read the PREM. My post was only addressing new day highs or new lows on the PREM and what the ES Price activity was doing at that simultaneous moment. For a complete set of rules on how to read the PREM you can find them at www.rsksys.com/premium.html

RandomZen wrote

2)GAPS: how long can they take to get filled, I mean on average? Do you have an idea of when to get out, when you're tired of waiting for the gap to be filled?

I make no determination on how long it may take to get filled. As a general rule the gap will get filled if the current price activity is reasonably close and the trend is continuing. However, trend reversals can occur even when the gap is reasonably close. Divergence is much stronger than a gap.