What comes next for the SP500: New All-Time Highs or Massive plunge?
- Thread starter orbit23
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I believe all-time highs are coming, but don't have a strong opinion for what's next after that.
My view is that the markets probably shouldn't be at these levels in the first place. Yet they are. And the conditions that brought us here have not changed, nor will they change because we're at historical highs.
I can't see how this is NOT a bubble. And it may continue quite a bit longer than this.
Just my simple view.
My view is that the markets probably shouldn't be at these levels in the first place. Yet they are. And the conditions that brought us here have not changed, nor will they change because we're at historical highs.
I can't see how this is NOT a bubble. And it may continue quite a bit longer than this.
Just my simple view.
1. Market is chewing around a possible "2x top" in the S&P. If market doesn't stop here because of technical resistance, then it will chew higher into the future.
2. No way to predict the big reversal to the downside other than something like the current possible 2x top. (There will, however, be deteriorations to be observed which might indicate "top". You could play those and perhaps get the big one right. You might have to play a few of them to catch the one that actually breaks and resolves to the downside.)
KISS/stops as always.
2. No way to predict the big reversal to the downside other than something like the current possible 2x top. (There will, however, be deteriorations to be observed which might indicate "top". You could play those and perhaps get the big one right. You might have to play a few of them to catch the one that actually breaks and resolves to the downside.)
KISS/stops as always.
If the market's red, talk up the vaccine.
Rally rally rally rallllllllly
Rally on repeat news of vaccine coming
Rally on Fear of missing out
Rally on the fact the markets are just near historic highs so they have to beeak through that feb 2020 high and continue all the way up.
Rally on the fact earnings CANNOT get any worse than what they are today
Rally on rates staying at HISTORICAL LOWS FOREVER
Rally on the continued words that all that sideline cash is ready to pour in
Rally on election no matter who wins president, they will make any excuse to push it higher on whoever wins
Rally on fed back stopping markets every step of the way
Rally on huge gigantic stimulus bill.that WILL pass BEFORE election
Rally on tech hype
Rally on unemployment numbers dipping month over month.
Rally on GDP only going 1 way up since GDP can't get any worse
Rally on repeat news of vaccine coming
Rally on Fear of missing out
Rally on the fact the markets are just near historic highs so they have to beeak through that feb 2020 high and continue all the way up.
Rally on the fact earnings CANNOT get any worse than what they are today
Rally on rates staying at HISTORICAL LOWS FOREVER
Rally on the continued words that all that sideline cash is ready to pour in
Rally on election no matter who wins president, they will make any excuse to push it higher on whoever wins
Rally on fed back stopping markets every step of the way
Rally on huge gigantic stimulus bill.that WILL pass BEFORE election
Rally on tech hype
Rally on unemployment numbers dipping month over month.
Rally on GDP only going 1 way up since GDP can't get any worse
A typical market top will likely come 1 of 3 ways.
1. A "Technical top"... like the currently in-play possible 2x one in the SP.
2. A "recognition that something actually DOES matter while initially deflected"... like the late 2018 top where the Fed had been raising rates slowly for like 2-years while paring down their balance sheet. The market ignored that negative influence for quite a while, then one day woke up to the notion... "that really does matter". (Also like in 2008, when the markets initially ignored deterioration in the leveraged mortgage/sub-prime RE markets.... then one day woke up with "holy crap... we've got a real problem".)
3. A surprise fundamentally negative "event". Don't know what that might be. Use your imagination. (Could be a single, spike event... like what allegedly started WWI.)
FWIW...
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Nice multi color. So why do you tell me to sell? Just buy and make money
How about both? I mean we are like .5% from ATH right now. I'm not calling a top anywhere, but I do think there will be a significant drop sometime in the next 6 months. Things are really bad in the real world and likely to get worse.
