what are the signs of reversal vs pullback?

[mute9003]

i was watching the latest tim sykes podcast and they basically traded same two penny stocks i did OPTT and some other one.
i lost money on both of them and they didnt.
i entered at the tops because what i saw was possible pullback and it turned out to be reversals and i got trapped.
---------
sidenote: 5-15 dollar stocks do same thing just faster becasue every scalper trades them now. so theres no difference anymore. you just lose more money faster in 5-15 range.
---------
so as i mentioned before im good at identifying tops lol. just not to my benefit anymore.
6 months ago i was able to enter earlier in the pattern as it was breaking out but the issue was i would hodl past the top well aware that its about to reverse and sat there watching as it slowly reverses and goes against me and i would finally sell for a loss.

now something changed and i lost the ability to buy early in the breakout.
i dont know if its me or market that changed.


how do yall tell the difference between a pullback and reversal?

 

[HawaiianIceberg]

Aloha mute,

---------
sidenote: 5-15 dollar stocks do same thing just faster becasue every scalper trades them now. so theres no difference anymore. you just lose more money faster in 5-15 range.

Why are you so dead set on trading penny stocks, when everyone here is screaming, DONT! Just trade less size with higher priced stocks. The flow of trades is more efficient, making it easier to trade.

so as i mentioned before im good at identifying tops lol. just not to my benefit anymore.
6 months ago i was able to enter earlier in the pattern as it was breaking out...
...now something changed and i lost the ability to buy early in the breakout.
i dont know if its me or market that changed.

In all honesty, no, you weren't good at picking tops, you were lucky. The market hasn't changed on bit. I might be coming across harsh, but this is the reality of your situation. What is your strategy anyways? How were you picking tops and predicting breakout before? I bet if you posted some charts of your trades (highly suggested), you'd get some feedback.

6 months ago i was able to enter earlier in the pattern as it was breaking out but the issue was i would hodl past the top well aware that its about to reverse and sat there watching as it slowly reverses and goes against me and i would finally sell for a loss.

What is your risk on each trade? What it your target reward? Are you setting a target or 'letting the profits run' lol. For you, I suggests the former. Nothing worse for the psyche than a big winner turning into a loser. If you were up a lot, take at least a little bit of that pie as it comes back to your stop.

how do yall tell the difference between a pullback and reversal?

Finally, the answer. These are the first things i think about. There are morer, but I think these are the most important

1. Where you are in the cycle of: Breakout, Pullback, Channel, Trading Range?
The end of the cycle (Trading range) doesn't necessarily mean a reversal. There could be a BO in the same direction (most likely situation as odds of continuation are always higher than odds of reversal) and the cycle resets in the same direction. BO, PB, Channel, TR.
All reversals start in the TR.
All PBs are what turn into reversals, so I'll call everything a PB until it proves itself to be a reversal.
Knowing the answer to: "Is it TIME for a PB or a reversal" is very important

2. What do the bars leading up to the PB look like? (body size, percent body, overlap with previous bar, strength of these bars compared with the bars of the previous with-trend leg)? What about close location, upper and lower wicks? Are there consecutive bull/bear bars?

3. Angle of this PB vs the previous one

4. Bars in this PB vs the previous one

5. Types of bars in this PB vs the previous one. Strength of the bar (body size, percent body, overlap with previous bar)

6. Type of day and previous day (Trend, range)

7. More stuff, but getting tired of typing.


When I read your post title, I knew it was almost certainly you or eleanorK80 asking. Last response for a while, mute. I tried to point you in the right direction via PM more than 2 months ago, with no response.

GL on your journey.

 

[Sekiyo]

OPTT is making lower high since 2021.
Looks like nothing has changed.

Difference between a pullback and a reversal ?
Price makes a new high after a pullback,
While it doesn’t after a reversal.

Pretty sure OPTT is below a descending 200sma,
Paul Tudor Jones: Don’t buy anything below a 200sma

Checkout stage analysis (Stan Weinstein).

Isn’t Sykes mostly shorting penny stocks ?
Selling shit when it spikes is a viable strategy.
Just need to wait for a bearish close with tight stop.

If you like Sykes, you might also like this guy.

 

[zghorner]

i was watching the latest tim sykes podcast and they basically traded same two penny stocks i did OPTT and some other one.
i lost money on both of them and they didnt.
i entered at the tops because what i saw was possible pullback and it turned out to be reversals and i got trapped.
---------
sidenote: 5-15 dollar stocks do same thing just faster becasue every scalper trades them now. so theres no difference anymore. you just lose more money faster in 5-15 range.
---------
so as i mentioned before im good at identifying tops lol. just not to my benefit anymore.
6 months ago i was able to enter earlier in the pattern as it was breaking out but the issue was i would hodl past the top well aware that its about to reverse and sat there watching as it slowly reverses and goes against me and i would finally sell for a loss.

now something changed and i lost the ability to buy early in the breakout.
i dont know if its me or market that changed.


how do yall tell the difference between a pullback and reversal?

If this is a troll post, my hats off to you because it is incredible. Tim Sykes, losing more money faster on $5-15 range stocks than pennies, they made money but you lost money...subtle yet completely ludicrous, faux sincerity...10/10.

 

[tomkat22]

Yeah Ross Cameron is also big on "Micro pullbacks". Apparently there's a method to his madness but I've yet to figure out what it is. Hard to knock the guy though,he's made over 600k this year. Good luck to anyone trying to daytrade penny stocks,it's gotta be an incredibly frustrating endeavor.

 

[Handle123]

I don't know who Tim Skyes is or what is podcasts, simple waste of time.

Unless there is strong large bars with higher closes on each, tough to know if reversal or pullback. I go with target 1-2 points and goal is 2 points for the day, as account increases, you add volume.

Best times to actually trade is when Great Britain starts till US starts, smaller bars, less choppy

 

[maxinger]

i was watching the latest tim sykes podcast and they basically traded same two penny stocks i did OPTT and some other one.
i lost money on both of them and they didnt.
i entered at the tops because what i saw was possible pullback and it turned out to be reversals and i got trapped.
---------
sidenote: 5-15 dollar stocks do same thing just faster becasue every scalper trades them now. so theres no difference anymore. you just lose more money faster in 5-15 range.
---------
so as i mentioned before im good at identifying tops lol. just not to my benefit anymore.
6 months ago i was able to enter earlier in the pattern as it was breaking out but the issue was i would hodl past the top well aware that its about to reverse and sat there watching as it slowly reverses and goes against me and i would finally sell for a loss.

now something changed and i lost the ability to buy early in the breakout.
i dont know if its me or market that changed.


how do yall tell the difference between a pullback and reversal?

The chart pattern for reversal and retracement/pullback are very similar.

So you need to look at other things like
Intermarket correlations.
But that may not tell you whether the reversal movement will be massive or not.

If your confidence about reversal is low, trade with a smaller quantity.
Who knows, the reversal movement could be massive.

 

[schizo]

i was watching the latest tim sykes podcast and they basically traded same two penny stocks i did OPTT and some other one.
i lost money on both of them and they didnt.
i entered at the tops because what i saw was possible pullback and it turned out to be reversals and i got trapped.

Sykes and his team have been trading for over 20 years. How long have you been trading?

I see a recurring pattern in all of your posts. You seem to want to know how you can "anticipate" with certainty what's about to happen, whether that be a breakout, a reversal, or a pullback.

There is no way to know in advance what will happen. Nobody has a crystal ball and if they pretend they do, you want to run for the exit, pronto. That said, it's all about probability. There are high probability moves. These are what's called low-risk entries (eg "low hanging fruit"). Unfortunately, these are not things that can be easily taught. It pretty much comes down to experience. But I suggest you start with the basics: price, momentum, and time.

And you can start by reading this thread:
https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/unholy-grail-to-success.144884/

 

[wxytrader]

OPTT is making lower high since 2021.
Looks like nothing has changed.

Difference between a pullback and a reversal ?
Price makes a new high after a pullback,
While it doesn’t after a reversal.

Pretty sure OPTT is below a descending 200sma,
Paul Tudor Jones: Don’t buy anything below a 200sma

Checkout stage analysis (Stan Weinstein).

Isn’t Sykes mostly shorting penny stocks ?
Selling shit when it spikes is a viable strategy.
Just need to wait for a bearish close with tight stop.

If you like Sykes, you might also like this guy.

i was watching the latest tim sykes podcast and they basically traded same two penny stocks i did OPTT and some other one.
i lost money on both of them and they didnt.
i entered at the tops because what i saw was possible pullback and it turned out to be reversals and i got trapped.
---------
sidenote: 5-15 dollar stocks do same thing just faster becasue every scalper trades them now. so theres no difference anymore. you just lose more money faster in 5-15 range.
---------
so as i mentioned before im good at identifying tops lol. just not to my benefit anymore.
6 months ago i was able to enter earlier in the pattern as it was breaking out but the issue was i would hodl past the top well aware that its about to reverse and sat there watching as it slowly reverses and goes against me and i would finally sell for a loss.

now something changed and i lost the ability to buy early in the breakout.
i dont know if its me or market that changed.


how do yall tell the difference between a pullback and reversal?

Why does everybody keep suggesting stage analysis when it is just a dumbed down version of EW? If you combine stage analysis, the Wyckoff method, and cyphers you end up with a crude form of EW.

You know it's a reversal and not a pullback via the fib levels. A stock will statistically not pull back more than .618.

Anyway if its a penny stock don't waste your time. They are manipulated. Either just hold and wait for the next pump or short the pump. They usually don't pump it up until they control most of the float though so if you have a big position they will flush you out.

 

[2rosy]

Pullback is a short term reversal
Reversal is a long term pullback
Long term consists of many short terms.
They cancel out which is why they market only goes up.