Now here is a little something I hesitate to bring up, because I really don't know what I am talking about, yet this bothers me. There is another reason you might pay more with ACA policies. The ACA policies are intended to bring the features of group policies to everyone. What that means is a little hard to tell, so I'll guess that in each State everyone with the same carrier will be in the same group, I assume, to create the largest groups possible. But with McCarran-Ferguson in place, companies that sell in only a few states obviously can't form as big a risk pool as a company that, say, is licensed in all 50 States (it's immediately obvious that the only way this can work at all is for standard policy features to be dictated by HHS, and the State regulators to agree to go along.)
"Theoretically" the participant companies will be selling individuals and companies the same policies now, the only difference being that companies will pay the premium for their employees. (We have absolutely lost our minds to keep the company mandate in place!; there is no need, other than to add still more complexity, for it now that we have the individual mandate.) In theory of course, if you can bring a lot of young healthy customers into the group, you can charge them a little more for their coverage then you might charge if they were in their own group, and charge the highest risk categories a little less. And finally, theoretically, selling policies to millions of new, very healthy customers can be highly profitable, and theoretically those billions in additional profits can be used to reduce everyone's premiums, while still providing a reasonable ROI for the insurance companies. But, theoretically, those windfall profits can also buy sets of alligator luggage for Board members prior to their annual junket to Waikiki. So where are the controls to see that much of the windfall profits get passed on as lower premiums?
Presumably, because neither the youngsters nor those covered by expanded medicaid -- nevermind the insanity of the Court allowing 25 States to opt out! -- are not supposed to show up at the emergency room any more, E.R. savings will, as if by magic, end up being passed on to everyone in the State groups, young and old alike. Well you don't have to be a rocket scientist to see that this scenario depends on, it would seem, hospital administrators acting ethically, and not moving the savings --they'll need a lot fewer E.R. personnel-- into executive salaries, etc. In other words, in that 1000 page ACA, where are the greed controls? And what if hospital administrators have been lying, and the reason E.R. costs are so high is to cover outrageous administrative salaries in the first place? Are these guys now going to volunteer for a pay cut. I doubt it. So there are huge unknowns in all of this. Nancy Pelosi was not kidding when she said we'll have to wait to find out what's in it!
Trying to make the ACA work while leaving McCarran-Ferguson in place will be like like trying to drink a beer by pouring it in your ear. I find extremely ironic Obama's assertion that the reason we went with the Heritage Foundation plan (same plan Massachusetts went with) was because it would cause less upheaval -- I assume he was referring to insurance company upheaval, or was he referring to upheaval in campaign contributions?

If he was concerned about upheaval, there would have been far less had Congress started by repealing McCarran Ferguson. But what's really ironic is that the simplest course of all would have been just to extend medicare to everyone, let us pay our premiums as we do now through payroll deduction, and let the insurance companies sell whatever supplemental coverage than can, just as they do now to the medicare covered. And since Obamney care was passed without a single Republican vote -- Ok, so Baucus is an honorary Republican-- they might have been able to actually go that route! Oh well.
I agree with you Nancy, we'll just have to wait and see what's in this thing. <a href="http://www.freesmileys.org/smileys.php" title="Smiley"><img src="http://www.freesmileys.org/smileys/smiley-confused013.gif" alt="Smiley" border="0" /></a>