Weinstein Trading and Fading

Quote from trader#21:

BTW for prev post I was talking about retracements in fractal sense. For trend continuation they become external retracements. I turn from several time frames from 1 minute to EOD as the price level suggests.


Argghh, I thought I was the only one to miss that long. ZUMZ yesterday was much similar. Easy 2 point move to ride on the short side. I took some long around 11:30 at 18.12 for target of 19+. It sure stopped me out, and later there were no movements(internal retracements) to suggest a long.

Also got good buy signals in VOLC around 22.90 and again at 23.20 yesterday. The latter at 23.20 was fun to fade a 2-minute spike. (I did not made on it because of some asinine rule-breaking adds).
More...

#21

The TIVO long is between concept stage and backtesting stage. I have actually traded this concept and have been talking to others in the chat about almost daily but it is not a signal I will trade again until I am able to backtest and know what my expected return on it is to the best of my ability.

Thanks

Robert
 
Love Trading,

Thanks for your post.

I think there may be more than two ways but if you found two ways that work well for you that's great and I commend you for it.

I agree it was time to rethink my approach and I have gone back to the start which is only trading known good setups and that is working for me.

I have watched NoDoji trade from almost the beginning and still almost daily and I agree she really has shown what can be done with the right attitude.

Best of luck to you this year as well

Robert





Quote from Love Trading:

Two ways of counter trend trading:

1. Fade/scalp strong moves and take quick profits, high win ratio and lots of small profits. Works well in high volatility markets. RULES: Get out of the way when wrong and NEVER AVERAGE DOWN.
2. Wait for trend line breaks and look for higher low (bottom)/lower high(top) to enter and try to catch intraday turning point. THIS IS a PREFERRED way of counter trend trading, better R/R and if you do catch one, ADD TO WINNER and ride the NEW TREND. Perfect example is today around 2:00pm

I only see you use method one and keep adding to losers in strong trends in a low volatility market.

You were profitable almost daily before, because you are averaging down and high volatility market bailed you out until a few big trends did you in.

Time to rethink your approach.

NODOJI�s journal shows what can be done when trading with discipline.

Trade to make money, not to be right. Think of it this way: Strong trends keep running away simply because �smart� counter tenders keep blowing up and add to the fuel!

Good Luck to you in the new year of Tiger!
More...
 
Hi NoDoji,

If you say so I believe you. I was wondering about you looking at BID though : o )

I can say that while it sure could have appeared that I was not watching the price action of BID it was the fact that I was watching it that I did not short it. Part of my signal is time based and in simple terms the entry price tends to continue higher as the day progresses. As the day moved along I raised my offer price as I should and BID never reached it although it did reach a price that I would have earlier shorted it at.

I was indeed studying (and I agree that I have not fully been able to match the two as I thought I would before signing up for classes) but I didn't "miss out" on BID. It just never made it to the entry price.

BTW, have you picked out the sim color yet? : o )

Robert





Quote from NoDoji:

I knew Robert had offers somewhere up there above .37 after price pulled back from that level. He made me promise not to look at the chart of BID in case it attempted a final push near his offers (I have a notorious "death stare" that causes anything I would like to short to drop immediately out of my reach).

He then committed the cardinal sin of [grabbing a snack, peeing, answering the phone, doing homework] while waiting for the setup to ripen.

For the record, I did NOT look at BID. I was very busy sim trading ES to help pay for my sim Ferrari. However, out of the corner of my eye, I saw BID hitting the high ticker yet again! I figured Robert's offers HAD to have been lifted up there and I couldn't get his attention because I'm pretty sure his nose was in a book.

Homework and trading just don't mix!

:D
More...
 
Hi Deadwood,

Thanks for your post

I have fly as well and tried TTN. I have not tried Briefing but others in the chat have it.

I think fly is a good value but the intersting thing that I found when compariing the news services is that it appears to me that bloom more often than not is first to kick out a story.(based on the chat room).

Also, I have the hold brothers free service and they seem to be faster in announcing the big stuff like key earnings and government data during my comparison period with TTN and currently with fly.

If I was actually going to sit and try to trade news based on speed I would trade with bloom or i would not personally do it at all.

I would welcome the name of brokers that have a better short list than IB. The primary reason I use IB is there short list. Granted I have not tried many others but I personally also have an account with tradestation which I found not to be as good and more often than not others in the chat (using various brokers some prop some retail) have a problem getting shares to short before I do.

So please let me know who you think would be better so I can take a look at them

Best to you

Robert




Quote from Deadwood:

I have several including TTN and Briefing but I prefer Fly. I load the symbols I'm interested in and if news hits I get a pop up. No need to stare at the news all day. But you're missing the point.

It's not breaking news that kills you it's lack of researching current news. I get up at 6:30 and start reading so I have little interest in the news during the day.

The exception to that, and something you could benefit greatly from, is that if I see a stock running or tanking the very first thing I do is check the news on it. If I don't know why it's moving how in the hell would I know how or if to trade it?

I also trade small stocks for the most part because that's where guys like us can have an edge. You really think you know more about SNDK than the army of MBA's following them, for example?

Btw, another tidbit. IB sucks because the majority of great trades, especially the kind you like, are impossible due to their very restrictive short list. Take IFLG and WAVX just in the past week. As a I trader I live for those set ups.
More...
 
Hi BPtrader,

Trading is not my only source of income so my family is not eating government cheese yet but your point is well taken.

Its a late reply but actually I believe the near future and the future in general are looking very good. My wife even commented yesterday about my trading "It looks like you have mojo back"

TIVO was a serious test of my trading and I was very happy with my actions / decisions while trading it (and even after when I thought it was more likely to fall into the close but I exited, and then shortly after when I thought it would rally into the close which I did not take as that signal is not ready to trade yet)

Best to you and your family

Robert







Quote from BPtrader:

I did my part, now it's your turn.

Robert's family are waiting for Robert to put food on the table.
More...
 
Hi oraclewizard77,

Thanks for asking and I am going to look at the differences in ownership profiles to see if I can find a correlation between ownership and my signal.

The bigest qualifier I use if the price action signals an order entry or more correctly what price signals an entry is volume. my signal performance degrades as volume goes down and once volume starts going below 200K a day its of no backtested value.

I am going to look into your idea as it appears the small active float stocks have the ability to have much larger extended moves.

Thanks

Robert


Quote from oraclewizard77:

Robert, you ever think about trading smaller stocks, since I think your method would work better?

Look at CRXX, got approval then sold off. I think on smaller stocks there is less fund ownership, so more of a public float and therefore more people sell on good news.

On stocks like SNDK, you have large funds that need to deploy lots of money and don't want to be under performing the S&P. So good earnings news, they may be buying even if the public is selling since they can hold longer term and hope that the stock will trend higher over time.
More...
 
Hi Xspurt,

Yes, always a work in progress even if that means taking a step backwards while trying to go forward.

I can say that nothing has changed and I am still happy with my trading lately even if the PnL doesn't show much. The fact is that once I start making money again (which I believe I have) it will be pretty easy to ramp up the share size and the PnL will follow.

regardless I am in no hurry and my only focus is trading well and feeling good about the days strict discipline when I drive how at night

Best

Robert



Quote from Xspurt:

I can see it's a work in progress (isn't it for us all?) and as I don't know your algo I can't comment, other than to say time will tell. I agree sticking with the game plan is vital and there's enough decent traders wishing you well and red flagging for you not to be able to adjust if the P&L says you're beating yourself up.

Good trading :)
More...
 
Hi Dustin,

Thanks for your post and taking the time to do so.

If you are referring to the discretionary trading of fading I totally agree and that is why I have stopped it. My signals that are part of my trading plan continue to work well and have allowed me to believe that simply following them and doing homework instead of trying to "find trades" would be the path to success.

The major change (although I had been working toward it for a while) happened on the first Tuesday of this month and I think marks a turning point. Time will show if I am correct or not

Best

Robert

Quote from Dustin:

Like all of you I've been cringing watching Robert continue down this path. Truth is I traded very similar strategies in 07-08, and they worked great, but this style of trading DOES NOT work in this market, as witnessed by his results. The follow through just isn't there. R/R used to be great on these trades, but everything changed about midway through last year. This applies to both continuations and what I would call "momentum reversions".

All I suggest is to work on other strategies and try to adapt, or wait for some volatility to re-enter the market. I'm essentially doing both of these things while living off the gains of the past few years.
More...
 
Hi MohdSalleh,

This shows the problem with getting behind in replies. Along with it being 1:30am and taking an Ambian about an hour ago I don't recall any details of the trade off the top of my head.

But if my journal says I did than I did. the symbol rings a bell but they all seem to ring a bell as I have traded so many different symbols in the last three years. I took a quick look at my ET journal and didn't see the trade or results so I guess it didn't have too big of an impact of me either way. : o )

Robert


Quote from MohdSalleh:

did u trade DNDN today?:eek:
More...
 
LOL

I would guess (or at least like to think) that most of my counterparties are not on ET



Quote from BPtrader:

be careful with what you wish.

somebody has to contribute to Robert's "big profits every day."

are u willing to donate?:D :D
More...
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top