Weinstein Trading and Fading
- Thread starter Robert Weinstein
- Start date
stop nightmare
I took a lot of stops today. Just about everything I traded had a stop at one time or another that ended up being at the top of a move. This was especially so with SNDK which I stopped out of much above 33 when it could be argued that I should have been adding at that time (I covered for a loss earlier so that I could reshort over 33). So that was a change of plans as I didnât want to watch it keep going against me. This of course is great if your trend following but if your fading a stock you generally need to fade it absent a real reason not to.
SNDK, stopped out of a bunch and traded it back and forth. I was able to cover some at a small gain and now I am left with very few shares that I will carry over until tomorrow looking for the down day. If it moves higher into the close that would be a short signal so I will add to it at that point. â 585
BID stopped out of most of the gains that it would have made but still not a totally bad trade. It did move a way from my entry though and I could have done real well if I would have put some size on it. I also entered at what appears to be the wrong price by five cents. I am unsure how that happened and if the entry price shifted as the day went on due to some new volume checks I have added. + 157
DNDN Traded back and forth near the BE to get some of the gains. it really was sloppy and when it did die it did so well beyond my target. This and Bid my be good examples of being kicked around enough to protect yourself. This of course I will need to break as it will limit the gains. So I am now doing well entering into trades based on the rules. Next stop will be to let them play out. + 220
NTRI short based on downgap. stopped out and stopped out fast and didnât play around. â 25
PCX was another that I was stopped out before I could make full target. Great short but it did move against me a bit. I also see that in Jan there are a bunch of days that are actually higher. The other highs kept me from really getting agressive but it was a mostly good trade. + 330
SQNM + 17 unqualified gap up that was terminated when the mistake was noticed.
+114
I took a lot of stops today. Just about everything I traded had a stop at one time or another that ended up being at the top of a move. This was especially so with SNDK which I stopped out of much above 33 when it could be argued that I should have been adding at that time (I covered for a loss earlier so that I could reshort over 33). So that was a change of plans as I didnât want to watch it keep going against me. This of course is great if your trend following but if your fading a stock you generally need to fade it absent a real reason not to.
SNDK, stopped out of a bunch and traded it back and forth. I was able to cover some at a small gain and now I am left with very few shares that I will carry over until tomorrow looking for the down day. If it moves higher into the close that would be a short signal so I will add to it at that point. â 585
BID stopped out of most of the gains that it would have made but still not a totally bad trade. It did move a way from my entry though and I could have done real well if I would have put some size on it. I also entered at what appears to be the wrong price by five cents. I am unsure how that happened and if the entry price shifted as the day went on due to some new volume checks I have added. + 157
DNDN Traded back and forth near the BE to get some of the gains. it really was sloppy and when it did die it did so well beyond my target. This and Bid my be good examples of being kicked around enough to protect yourself. This of course I will need to break as it will limit the gains. So I am now doing well entering into trades based on the rules. Next stop will be to let them play out. + 220
NTRI short based on downgap. stopped out and stopped out fast and didnât play around. â 25
PCX was another that I was stopped out before I could make full target. Great short but it did move against me a bit. I also see that in Jan there are a bunch of days that are actually higher. The other highs kept me from really getting agressive but it was a mostly good trade. + 330
SQNM + 17 unqualified gap up that was terminated when the mistake was noticed.
+114
Robert, you ever think about trading smaller stocks, since I think your method would work better?
Look at CRXX, got approval then sold off. I think on smaller stocks there is less fund ownership, so more of a public float and therefore more people sell on good news.
On stocks like SNDK, you have large funds that need to deploy lots of money and don't want to be under performing the S&P. So good earnings news, they may be buying even if the public is selling since they can hold longer term and hope that the stock will trend higher over time.
Look at CRXX, got approval then sold off. I think on smaller stocks there is less fund ownership, so more of a public float and therefore more people sell on good news.
On stocks like SNDK, you have large funds that need to deploy lots of money and don't want to be under performing the S&P. So good earnings news, they may be buying even if the public is selling since they can hold longer term and hope that the stock will trend higher over time.
Hi Xspurt,
Thanks for your post. Yeah its hard to argue with your points. I can not 'think' about my trading until after they are done as that lowers my performance.
SNDK was entered as a result of changes in my algorithm that lowered the value placed on a gapping up stock. Actually several values where adjusted because I had manually curve fitted my algro to the point where too many trades where being missed. SNDK was what happens when you go to far the other way. I am back to the original in that variable while others have been adjusted.
Heres the most important thing about SNDK though. I don't have a problem with the trade. I lost on it and its not a big deal. It doesn't even really matter. What does matter is if I have an edge and if I stick with the plan. This setup has an edge even with the SNDKs of the world and so I just need to trade it.
What I have been working on for a while and have broken through to the other side is taking trades that are part of the plan and no others. So I feel good about last week and even this week as I know the more I trade the way I have been the better it will be.
Thanks and best to you. feel free to reply as well if you like
Robert
Thanks for your post. Yeah its hard to argue with your points. I can not 'think' about my trading until after they are done as that lowers my performance.
SNDK was entered as a result of changes in my algorithm that lowered the value placed on a gapping up stock. Actually several values where adjusted because I had manually curve fitted my algro to the point where too many trades where being missed. SNDK was what happens when you go to far the other way. I am back to the original in that variable while others have been adjusted.
Heres the most important thing about SNDK though. I don't have a problem with the trade. I lost on it and its not a big deal. It doesn't even really matter. What does matter is if I have an edge and if I stick with the plan. This setup has an edge even with the SNDKs of the world and so I just need to trade it.
What I have been working on for a while and have broken through to the other side is taking trades that are part of the plan and no others. So I feel good about last week and even this week as I know the more I trade the way I have been the better it will be.
Thanks and best to you. feel free to reply as well if you like
Robert
Hi GG,
Firstly let me say thanks. Your advise and help has been most important to some of the changes I have made in my trading.
I actually do have setups that are trend following in nature and small stop losses and appear to be ready to go into production. I even started trading them but with my allowing rules to be broken the edge was lost (having them automated would be a solution and thats coming). Between school and just sticking to the basics that make money I am holding off until summer break. My family doesn't get to see me enough as it is and I just pulled the plug on all my trading projects like automation until then.
Thanks again
Robert
Firstly let me say thanks. Your advise and help has been most important to some of the changes I have made in my trading.
I actually do have setups that are trend following in nature and small stop losses and appear to be ready to go into production. I even started trading them but with my allowing rules to be broken the edge was lost (having them automated would be a solution and thats coming). Between school and just sticking to the basics that make money I am holding off until summer break. My family doesn't get to see me enough as it is and I just pulled the plug on all my trading projects like automation until then.
Thanks again
Robert
Quote from GG1972:
I didnt want to berate you but like i said earlier shorting 20 day breakout is inviting trouble-sure you can make money shorting for .20 contra trend moves (I did the same earlier in my career) but develop a methodology to catch the trend --you'll make money easily and more of it. It's your choice to make life difficult or easier. But there is a lot of truth to "trend is your friend". There is a time and place for contra trend moves.
I can post another chart if you like--like you , I used to be very fond of predicting price--friday FCX made a move going higher towards 74.89 which was my target. It just fell shy of there and couple of years ago I wouldve exited as price retraced but there was no sell signal yet-so as long as stop wasnt hit I decided to play along ( I just have low expectations about fridays anyways). It retraced quite a bit before punching through and I sold it eventually .30 higher than my target. I can assure you 2 years ago the same trade wouldve been at least a net .60 less gain at the minimum. In hind sight I couldve sold and rebought but more of a chance of missing the move which eventually ran out of time too. Read the example of the soybean trader (?) i belive it was from Mark douglas's book where the guy said it would bounce off a level and the big guy sells a whole lot at that price to the astonishment of the analyst
As far as selling SPY at 111 is concerned I have my mental stop at 111.25 - it's a good probability setup although I'd like T2106 to be over 200 but a failure at 50 sma seems like a decent setup. Not a big position by any means 800 shares max loss around $200
I can see it's a work in progress (isn't it for us all?) and as I don't know your algo I can't comment, other than to say time will tell. I agree sticking with the game plan is vital and there's enough decent traders wishing you well and red flagging for you not to be able to adjust if the P&L says you're beating yourself up.
Good trading
Two ways of counter trend trading:
1. Fade/scalp strong moves and take quick profits, high win ratio and lots of small profits. Works well in high volatility markets. RULES: Get out of the way when wrong and NEVER AVERAGE DOWN.
2. Wait for trend line breaks and look for higher low (bottom)/lower high(top) to enter and try to catch intraday turning point. THIS IS a PREFERRED way of counter trend trading, better R/R and if you do catch one, ADD TO WINNER and ride the NEW TREND. Perfect example is today around 2:00pm
I only see you use method one and keep adding to losers in strong trends in a low volatility market.
You were profitable almost daily before, because you are averaging down and high volatility market bailed you out until a few big trends did you in.
Time to rethink your approach.
NODOJIâs journal shows what can be done when trading with discipline.
Trade to make money, not to be right. Think of it this way: Strong trends keep running away simply because âsmartâ counter tenders keep blowing up and add to the fuel!
Good Luck to you in the new year of Tiger!
I don't know if you are talking to me or Robert. Lot's of wrong assumptions here. Option 2 better describes my favored style. I prefer to add to winners. A few big trends did me in? Not even sure what that means.
Either way I don't trade this style any longer because it's not worth it. I have automated a few new strategies and spend the rest of my time testing/tinkering/automating new ones.
Not planning on hijacking Roberts thread, just wanted to clear that up.
I am sorry Dustin I was talking about Bob's trading last few months, including his losses on SNDK, SWM, etc.
You are one of the traders that I respect most here, and I actually agree with you 100%.
I am very grateful your posts including your posts on price actions a few years back. In fact, I was trying to encourage Bob to use Relative Strength of stock/future as a filter. Market Internals are Keys no matter what stocks you trade.
Good day but came close to being a great day
BID came close to providing a very strong short signal but did not quite make it. I did have some other signals and they worked out pretty well.
FTI B8 pretty much hit the top of the move so I did not get many shares shorted + 70
HSNI gap up trade+ 186
NKTR was based on multiple 4bar +31
PETM afterhours trading. Still in trade as of this post. â 90
RISK + 7
+ 204
BID came close to providing a very strong short signal but did not quite make it. I did have some other signals and they worked out pretty well.
FTI B8 pretty much hit the top of the move so I did not get many shares shorted + 70
HSNI gap up trade+ 186
NKTR was based on multiple 4bar +31
PETM afterhours trading. Still in trade as of this post. â 90
RISK + 7
+ 204