Weinstein Trading and Fading

Quote from Robert Weinstein:

BID came close to providing a very strong short signal but did not quite make it. I did have some other signals and they worked out pretty well.
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I knew Robert had offers somewhere up there above .37 after price pulled back from that level. He made me promise not to look at the chart of BID in case it attempted a final push near his offers (I have a notorious "death stare" that causes anything I would like to short to drop immediately out of my reach).

He then committed the cardinal sin of [grabbing a snack, peeing, answering the phone, doing homework] while waiting for the setup to ripen.

For the record, I did NOT look at BID. I was very busy sim trading ES to help pay for my sim Ferrari. However, out of the corner of my eye, I saw BID hitting the high ticker yet again! I figured Robert's offers HAD to have been lifted up there and I couldn't get his attention because I'm pretty sure his nose was in a book.

Homework and trading just don't mix!

:D
 
Quote from Robert Weinstein:

Hi Deadwood,

Good advice. I have two news feeds. I actually normally don't get a lot of value out of them. I think from my understanding is that you need to have bloomberg for news and stare at it all day long waiting with your finger on the button or your gonna be late.

What news service do you use?

Robert
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I have several including TTN and Briefing but I prefer Fly. I load the symbols I'm interested in and if news hits I get a pop up. No need to stare at the news all day. But you're missing the point.

It's not breaking news that kills you it's lack of researching current news. I get up at 6:30 and start reading so I have little interest in the news during the day.

The exception to that, and something you could benefit greatly from, is that if I see a stock running or tanking the very first thing I do is check the news on it. If I don't know why it's moving how in the hell would I know how or if to trade it?

I also trade small stocks for the most part because that's where guys like us can have an edge. You really think you know more about SNDK than the army of MBA's following them, for example?

Btw, another tidbit. IB sucks because the majority of great trades, especially the kind you like, are impossible due to their very restrictive short list. Take IFLG and WAVX just in the past week. As a I trader I live for those set ups.
 
Sorry for the delay in responding. I will be catching up soon

Long day today

I was very tired today from lack of sleep last night. That did not make for a fun day but all in all it was pretty good.

Biggest trade of the day was TIVO and shorting it into the monster push higher. This was done in two parts. The first part was profitable and I closed out with a gain of target even though my entry was late and lower than I would have liked.(TIVO was not on the main scanner and was called out in the chat room). The second entry ended up negative but was a small loss for a net of a small gain in the trading. The second time at bat could have been a small gain as well but I was looking to make a better gain (target) which it never saw again for the rest of the day. It moved against me and I faded it as well as traded through the move to protect from having it go to far on me. This trading through moves leaves me with losses that need to be made up but keeps my risk lower.

An interesting thing with the second entry of TIVO is that it was done intrabar after retracing higher after target was reached. I don’t believe this has happened before or is very rare. At least for TIVO it was a big deal as the difference was a new starting entry 40 cents higher. It could be a result of being tired but I don’t recall back testing reentries intrabar when target was reached.

TIVO + 35
ANF was a gap up at the very edge of the time limit for entry. As a result I kept a quick stoploss and trailed it. stopped out pretty quickly + 24
PETM was a hold over from last night. Today ended up fine but I didn’t want to hold the bulk of the trade overnight so the net was a loss. + 35
ZUMZ gap up + 194

Overall other than TIVO the trading volume was very small and even TIVO was not relatively high. I am happy with my trading today and even tired I stayed focused and followed the trading plan

+ 275
 
Hi Xspurt

slow response for sure and I apologize.

Thanks for your post and nothing in it doesn't make sense. the only part I would be willing to say is not fully correct is that "you can learn..."

Actually, I am fully focused on just sticking to the rules I have for my current setups. there is really no point to learn anything if I don't follow the rules fully. It has never been about my fading or setups or anything other than simply following my rules of trading. When I follow the rules I make money and when I don't I don't

I have some momentum setups that look very promising and trend following setups that do also. I am going to wait until I have the time to do it correctly and I would expect that I could be on the same side of a SNDK as you

Best to you and have a great weekend

Robert





Quote from Xspurt:

Dow up 45 in opening 2 mins. SNDK is on strong weekly up momentum and gapped up with the Dow. No brainer low risk buy and stop under the 2 min on huge volume. The buyers are in big time and this is an island type daily gap.

You can learn to read this kind of move easily but here's the trick: when you have this kind of momentum it over rides a strong short signal. You can have a top quality short signal but the market will swallow it up and run away. There is nothing up with your signal but you don't seem to qualify the setting very well.

Basically this is similar to the last comment I made on SNDK. You could have bought this and spent the day in study and made a packet. It's the soft belly trade and it's a lot easier than what you do. SNDK is now on resistance and when it breaks it, there's big upside potential.

This was a mistake I had to correct. How can my best signal not work at times? When I requalified it within the background of where the greatest momentum was I was able to see that a lower quality signal in neutral momentum would be a safer and more profitable trade.

However, counter trend trading is all clever stuff and the difference between what you are doing and my progression is I learned the easy trade first and then got clever. That made it easier to see where the error was and trade both long and shorts on the move.

Counter trend trading it the top level of the skill ladder but it is taking the crumbs is you don't add in trend trading, and if you don't distinguish the strongest trend from weaker trends your contra signals get steam rolled.
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Hi GG1972,

Thanks for your post

sorry for the late reply. I don't even have time for the replies I am doing but I hate how far behind I have become.

I cant disagree with you about the 20MA. I dont follow the 20MA and rather I just took the trade that my signal gave me. I am happy with the trade as my goal is to follow the backtested and forward tested setups that I have that show an edge. Taking a loss from a signal is not a bad thing as long as you expect it and handle it correctly IMHO.

Perhaps it would be wise for me to expore uses of the 20MA although I currently use the 9,60,90,120,200 MAs as part of my main signal so I am thinking that I may have already reached a point of saturation.

thanks again

Robert




Quote from GG1972:

Another 20 day breakout I actually thought you made money on that shorting but couldnt possibly see how you wouldve since it didnt really pull back any significant amount.

At least you are out of it. Maybe it will run another couple of days

I ll just copy and paste this again "I didnt want to berate you but like i said earlier shorting 20 day breakout is inviting trouble-sure you can make money shorting for .20 contra trend moves (I did the same earlier in my career) but develop a methodology to catch the trend --you'll make money easily and more of it. It's your choice to make life difficult or easier. But there is a lot of truth to "trend is your friend". There is a time and place for contra trend moves."
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Hi #21,

Thanks for your post and I am sorry for the late reply.

Sounds like a good rule and if has an edge than great. That is all we really need is an edge and the proper execution of the trade with position size management to make money long term.

Retracements are what I do best so far although I have more than one trend following setup that looks like a winner. For example today it would have put me long TIVO during the last hour of trading although I was short TIVO for much of the day as I traded it several times.


Best to you

Robert


Quote from trader#21:

I have a small rule while fading intraday: internal retracements should be atleast around 50% for the move which I'm fading. If that does not happens, I don't add to initial size and priority is getting out at suitable price.

Yesterday bought ESRX around 1:30 @ .60. Target was to look for a 40+ cent move... small but easy. By that time had taken 3 similar scalps earlier in the day. This time however, it started to go down slowly. I exit half at 96.40, completely by 96.30. So the last trade was losing, however, I had made comfortably earlier.

The internal retracements I think are very helpful... sometimes they wont let a stock retrace at all for full day... squeezes. If a squeeze is happening holding the pos or worse adding to it can be dangerous. Similar clean move started in GVA around 10 yesterday.
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BTW for prev post I was talking about retracements in fractal sense. For trend continuation they become external retracements. I turn from several time frames from 1 minute to EOD as the price level suggests.
Quote from Robert Weinstein:
For example today it would have put me long TIVO during the last hour of trading although I was short TIVO for much of the day as I traded it several times.
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Argghh, I thought I was the only one to miss that long. ZUMZ yesterday was much similar. Easy 2 point move to ride on the short side. I took some long around 11:30 at 18.12 for target of 19+. It sure stopped me out, and later there were no movements(internal retracements) to suggest a long.

Also got good buy signals in VOLC around 22.90 and again at 23.20 yesterday. The latter at 23.20 was fun to fade a 2-minute spike. (I did not made on it because of some asinine rule-breaking adds).
 
slow day but perfect day

I am ending the day a little early. I will get a chance to work on some signals next week as I have a week off from school (but will also spend a lot of time trying to fully catch up and maybe even get a little bit ahead)

I came close more than once to shorting MXB but the moves never quite made it where it needed to. SXCI was another close one that only missed by pennies. While I do not enjoy it at the time I am glad I am seeing near misses again as it shows I have the signal dialed in better and more like it was about a year ago.

CECO B8 + 52
TIVO gap up after B8 + 86

+ 138
 
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