Weinstein Trading and Fading

Today started out with the usual gap up trades.

I traded several gap ups and they worked out well. I also once again kept my trading size much smaller than last month and I had some clean setups which made for a stress free profitable day with very little pain at any point.

The Treasury is selling a lot of notes this week (record tying amount) and so far so good causing the treasury futures to climb higher. I am still slightly in the green on this trade and will hold.
WCRX + 2041
SVR + 725
HGSI + 585
COCO + 185
BIG + 146
BCRX + 388

+ 4073
+ 5626 Week
+ 4501 Month
 

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Today started out pretty fast

then quickly slowed down and I did not have any trades in the afternoon. AIG and HGSI were fun to watch today though. As I write this after the closing bell AIG is still making new highs of the day.

GRMN gave me my only signal today and I traded very small in it. I missed the top by two cents and it didn’t take long to be able to cover for a full target gain. This trade of course would have been really nice had I put a larger short on it but hindsight is 20/20
GRMN + 155

Two other trades today and both gap up trades. While I normally fade stocks moving against me I actually shorted more and more of HGSI today as it moved down during my first ‘whack’ at shorting it. I then covered and when it moved up again I faded the move higher. So I say that HGSI today was an example of trading both styles. Adding to a winner and adding to a loser and both worked out well in both legs.
HGSI + 747
WSM + 402

+ 1305 Day
+ 6931 Week
+ 5806 Month
 

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I shorted hgsi at 22.13,has over 4k shares but cover it too early ,left lot of money on the table,what is the solution Robert? Now a days this is my biggest problem,need your feed back.
 
Quote from QQQBALL:

Robert,
IT top today?
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Hello QBall,

Thanks for posting but I am unsure what your question is. I believe your asking me my thoughts if IT will continue to go higher.

I would love to be able to have an opinion on it and if I did I would be willing to share it.

I am not very good at looking at a stock and being able to predict which way the price will go most of the time. I say most of the time because my setups are solid but they happen rarely and thats why most of the time I am not trading

I did take a look at IT and I would not be willing to risk my money long or short but that doesn't mean you should or should not trade it.

I am for the most part a liquidity provider and not an investor so even if I did have an opinion it may only be valid for hours and surely less than one day.

Here is the sum of my investments and what I am looking at

I am short the 30yr bond as well as technically long GE via a heavily hedged covered call but other than that I am flat

I am looking at the coal sector and expect to be writting naked puts on one or more stocks but that process may take another week. If PEP retraces back down I would probably be looking at writting more put options for it as well provided nothing has materially changed.

I no longer like LVS or any vegas strip property as they are not only hurting in vegas at this moment but are about to have huge amounts of room inventory come on line in the next 24 months. I am not short LVS but did sell out of my shares about a month ago.

Best to you and if I didn't answer you correctly please feel free to follow up.

Robert
 
Today started out pretty slow and good

Basically all was fine with a few hundred in gains. I traded AIG gap in the opening and that worked out fine but I also left some offers on with AIG that I forgot about and was not visible on the screen. AIG moved up strongly and I did have a chance to get out with a small loss but I made the mistake of trying to get some of it back. Then it quickly moved against me more and other offers hit and while I tried to trade around it I basically ended up doing what I have a rule not to do. I was scalping AIG although the original entry was not something I intended to do. This is why the small loss is the best one even when it means you have multilple small losses. I didn’t have a reason other than I wanted to get money for being in AIG but by the time I came to my senses it was much too late. Totally poor trading and something a new trader does to destroy their account and something I really know not to do. I was starting to think I was back on track but it appears I have a ways to go.
AIG – 27064

I also Traded OSK today with my B7 signal which is my best and strongest signal. I been trading it very well all year and for the most part is bulletproof. Today I was somewhat taught why I have to use the words “most part”. I did get more aggressive with OSK and put size on right away so once it really moved against me as far as it did I was really underwater. Before that happened though I did book a very small gain and thought I was going to be in great shape. I closed out some OSK and holding over to tomorrow for a retrace with the rest.
OSK – 3297

I have been making several adjustments to my signals in the past few months to make them more “conservative” in the entry. This of course cuts back on many profitable setups but also lowers the amount of trades really moving against me. Going into OSK I was thinking perhaps they were too tight as many trades that I have been in recently would go up to my first entry and then quickly fall off. Basically I was hitting the tops of moves over and over. that was my mental setup to jump into OSK with more shares including bringing back the entry lot size to 400 from 300 and putting the lots closer together. I was thinking i would capture greater gains. After studying OSK and the price action today I did make another adjustment but I am also mindful that changes can effect the overall results negatively even though they appear to be helping in a small sample size.

So it did start out as a good day and I did have several good trades including one with CLNE that was also based on the B8 signal but after the beat up I took with AIG and OSK I kept the size very small with it.
CLNE + 388
BA + 194
JAS + 86
SPR + 204

I closed out my 30 yr Treas short as well today. I still am bearish on the Treasury bonds but I also think I need to reset and shrink after the setbacks I been having. Tommorrow again I will continue with trading smaller size like with CLNE and regroup.

- 29272
- 22341 Week
- 24466 month
 

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Quote from Robert Weinstein:


AIG -27064
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I'm speechless again :-(

When MM fades any stock, they know 101% that they'll make money on the lot (because they also control the price). We as retail traders do not have such edge.

You are a great trader and wonderful person. Seeing these drawdowns makes me sad. Please don't do it.
 
Quote from monti1a:

Focus more on your money management instead.

When you can lose 100K+ in a single month and 20k+ in a single day, your risk of ruin is too high and probably around the corner dude.
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I'm going to re-post the above and hopefully you will take it more seriously.

Rule #1 must always be: Protect your Capital at all costs.

No Capital, No trading. Plain and simple.
 
You've had bad months before & know we know for sure that you are human.

The "urge" after an Eff-up like AIG is to increase the shares on next trades & "get it back." Generally, its just bad juu juu.

So, you have more winning trades than losing & you screwed the pooch on AIG. Lets get back on track and trade the plan.

I like to go out & spend some money when I have a really bad day... not a car or house or anything, but its helps me for some reason.

Good luck!
 

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Quote from Robert Weinstein:

What I am going to do is just not trade unless my computer is "beeping" at me that a signal is reached. So I no longer have an opinion about a stock other than my setups.
Maybe I can get caught up on the WSJ (as well as the many other things I plan on this fall )and be able to keep/increase the gains I do have for the year.

After I reach a new high in NAV I will then start to look for actually trading some new setups that may come along the way : o )
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Hi Robert,

I have enjoyed reading your journal. If you simply follow your own advice given above, I am sure your trading will turn out just fine.
 
Do you use any kind of stops? For example:

1) Hard emergency stops?

2) Price tells you when to stop out?

3) Actual pre-placed stops for the trade?

4) Amount of draw down for day?
 
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