Weinstein Trading and Fading

Quote from marketsurfer:

nice trading, RW. Let me know when your ready to get some of your ideas published--- all good stuff!

surf
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Hey Surf,

Thanks for taking the time to say so.

I just submitted my reasons for being short the US 30 year to seekingalpha so maybe they will run with it (they have been publishing more and more of my thoughts). let me know what your thoughts are please.

I am looking forward to having another cigar and some drinks with you

Respectfully,

Robert
 
Pretty slow day today other than the open and the close

I was able to make some lemon-aid out of some lemons from a few months ago. HURN broke out today with a big gap up. I traded HURN to the long side and MRX and PRX to the short side. PRX traded up strongly into the close and I covered some in after hour trading at a loss so that I would not carry over so much overnight.
PRX – 888
MRX + 654
HURN + 3204

+ 2969 Day
+ 5970 Week
+ 5077 Month
 
I had my latest article published on seekingalpha about why I am short the 30 yr bonds.

I been bearish (I am net short some synthetic calls and net short calls in other strike prices) for about a month now and I have talked about being in the trade but never gave the reasons. This was actually cut back in size (still VERY long) so that it would not turn into a "book"

This is one of my longer term trades and unless something changes I intend to keep it going for six or more months. this trade has gone right almost right from the start and is pretty far in the green as of this post

http://seekingalpha.com/article/156806-why-i-am-shorting-treasury-30-year-bonds-via-treasury-futures
 
PRX became a frustrating trade for most of the day

I was glad that I exited as much as I did in afterhours trading last night. I also even had some bids hit that lowered the loss after I posted. When it opened higher today I correctly faded the move and that did bring my average higher but it was not enough and when PRX did move down the first time today it just missed most of my cover bids. It moved back and forth several times but never enough to get me out where I wanted to. I ended up covering much of the short before it finally did fall back down below my Break even point. Frustrating trade all around.
PRX – 1999

RMBS started out great as I sold just about at the very HOD today. It did fall back and retrace its move but missed my covering bids by around 10 cents. I ended up covering into the close for a small gain so that I would not have to hold overnight
RMBS + 128

I rolled over months with the treasury futures today so I booked the gains so far. I would have been willing to hold out for longer but the SEPT put I wrote against the short to hedge became worthless (1/64th on the ask) so I just rolled over and shorted the OCT 30yr 122 call. That did move into the money already today so thats good. The gain with the futures contract was not as good as I would have liked as the hedge stopped working when the put option became junk.
Sep put + 621
Sep fut + 413

- 836 Day
+ 5134 Week
+ 4241 Month
 

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A down day of this amount is still in a win in my book with the number of winning days you have been having and the amount each winning day has been. Keep up the good work!
 
Quote from nesyo03:

A down day of this amount is still in a win in my book with the number of winning days you have been having and the amount each winning day has been. Keep up the good work!
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Hello nesyo03,

Thanks for saying so and taking the time to post. this month sure has been pretty crazy as far as trying to keep my head above water.

Best of trading to you

Robert
 
Today started out with some nice gaps that I traded

Both TECD and DKS worked out well for me at the open. when I covered those two trades I thought today would be a really good day. I received a short for AIG but due to a combination of being overly aggressive at a point I thought it was breaking down, AIG moving strongly beyond the point I thought it would break down and my unwillingness to hold for it to finally break down turned my day into the red. In the end the signal actually did work well but my confidence level in that AIG would not go further higher as well not sticking it out until AIG did fall ruined the trade. I have gone through this type of trade before but its been over a year that I have traded this signal like today so while I am for undoubtedly frustrated with the outcome I am also of the thought that my risk of further losses was much lower.
AIG – 9298

TECD + 1625

The treasury Sept call option that I was short became close to worthless so I closed that out today as the premium was no longer worth holding overnight. + 105
I scalped the ZB (30 year 122 call option) and booked a gain but still short as of the end of the day today + 293
DKS + 796

I closed out of my SYNA trade near the end of the day when it went under 26 again. This was a covered call trade. I ended up making about + 257 on it beyond what I made by trading it. Very good trade all around.
SYNA SEP – 23
SYNA + 280

- 6220 Day
- 1086 Week
- 1979 Month
 

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One of the slowest days in terms of volume for me

I have cut back on trade size as well as increase the spread between the fades. This is based on what I think is very important when managing risk. If I go back positive for the month I will review the size again at the start of next month. I have been feeling like I want to recover back to my high NAV as quickly as possible and that is actually holding me back. So I have gone back to just a simple focus of making money at the end of the day with low risk by cutting back on trading size. The good news is that whenever I do this I make money but the bad news is that the gain is about 1/3 the size it would have been today had I been aggressive but I am very pleased that I obtained my objective and had a nice gain…..

I had two gap up trades today and one worked well and one I basically walked away at even.
MENT + 17
CRM + 442

I had two setups today. One I missed by about 3 cents and the other I hit just about right at the top. Normally I would have made money on both and made a solid gain but the results are based on ending the day with a gain.
ARO + 149

Today is also option expiration day and the PEP 52.50 puts I wrote died today at zero. + 246 (doesnt show up in the screen print)

+ 854 Day
- 232 Week
- 1125 Month
 

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Today started out pretty good and stayed that way.

I would have liked to have made a larger gain with BCRX as I ended up taking a stop loss to protect the small gains I had and not allow a winner to turn into a loser. BCRX actually hit the profit target by the book but my bids to cover where a little bit more aggressive and I missed by just a few cents of having the bids hit. The price moved higher and I stopped out before it went back to break even. BCRX actually then went on to make new highs so I was glad to be out from that.
BCRX + 88

WCRX started out as a gap up trade and then went higher to give me a short signal so it was underwater most of the day for me. WCRX then went to fall in the final minutes of trading today and I was able to get out pretty much at break even to avoid holding overnight. For a trade that really didn’t go well it turned out ok. As I write this in after hours trading WCRX really fell off the horse and is trading down much further. To bad it couldn’t fall during market hours but oh well.
WCRX + 38

some gap ups today
TLEO + 976
NPD + 199
MELA + 217

+ 1553 Day / week
+ 428 Month
 

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Quote from Robert Weinstein:

Today started out pretty good and stayed that way.

I would have liked to have made a larger gain with BCRX as I ended up taking a stop loss to protect the small gains I had and not allow a winner to turn into a loser. BCRX actually hit the profit target by the book but my bids to cover where a little bit more aggressive and I missed by just a few cents of having the bids hit. The price moved higher and I stopped out before it went back to break even. BCRX actually then went on to make new highs so I was glad to be out from that.
BCRX + 88

WCRX started out as a gap up trade and then went higher to give me a short signal so it was underwater most of the day for me. WCRX then went to fall in the final minutes of trading today and I was able to get out pretty much at break even to avoid holding overnight. For a trade that really didn’t go well it turned out ok. As I write this in after hours trading WCRX really fell off the horse and is trading down much further. To bad it couldn’t fall during market hours but oh well.
WCRX + 38

some gap ups today
TLEO + 976
NPD + 199
MELA + 217

+ 1553 Day / week
+ 428 Month
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Robert,
IT top today?
 
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