Weinstein Trading and Fading

[trader198]

I agree. I will check FINL's floating shares also long-term chart if I go short.
like yesterday's ABIO, it is a gap up. I saw long signal on ABIO and SMOD. after I checked their floating shares, I am afraid to buy on the rise, so I decided to short SMOD (my reason for shorting smod is smod already rise smeaninfully before the news, or already well discounted). my bet is right. but to ABIO, from the long-term chart, I did not see any meaningful rise for the news, I know it will be crazy like SOMX. the problem with me is I am not comfortable to buy on the rise since I get lots of getting burned hard experience, plus I have no day trades available Friday to buy it after I consumed SMOD day trade. Even if I do, I will buy it still in normal size.

in the market, if you can use signals to measure the market movements, that will be totally awesome, everyone will be happy since that is the holy grail, those signals can be easily taught, even you do not need do anything you can let your computer do it. but in most cases, signals are mislead. actually there is no such thing as overbought or oversold, you will notice some stocks will keep marching high and higher, while some will keep dropping and dropping lower. there are fundamental reasons behind those movements. if a company belly up, the stock goes to zero, is it an oversold signal? if a company bought out, the stock is overbought? if a stock goes up 300% in a session, is it an overbought signal? most likely, next day it will keep marching on with another 300% gain( it will attract more and more people to join this insane game)!

trading is an intellectual game. the computer signals can not do it. for fading trading, better play it on those no-where markets or range-band markets.

Quote from trader#21:

FINL was sustaining near highs so well around 11-11:30 at price 16.40 I got a BUY signal.... ofcourse I did'nt, it's a thin wild stock, personally I trade such charts only on the short side. But RW, it was really strong at that time and too dangerous to hold short.

 

[Robert Weinstein]

Quote from trader#21:

FINL was sustaining near highs so well around 11-11:30 at price 16.40 I got a BUY signal.... ofcourse I did'nt, it's a thin wild stock, personally I trade such charts only on the short side. But RW, it was really strong at that time and too dangerous to hold short.

I do agree with you. I am still not sure if I made the right choice or not. Once I found out that it was not fully qualified to be shorted I stopped and took a look to see if I should just exit as I normally do when I see a mistake made. But the chart looked so good I stayed with it. The one rule that was not qualified is one that when not met has a much higher chance of going higher through the day and closing at or near the HOD. It doesn't mean that the odds favor it but that the risk vs reward is generally not worth it to short for me.

I had conflicting information and as a result I did scale back which ended up buying near the HOD to cover. Anyway it has the classic blow off top and it has over a 80% chance of trading below the closing price enough for me to walk away without a further loss and perhaps getting some back.

I dont like to lose money but its part of the game and if you fade stocks like I do your loss on any given trade is going to be larger than the ave winner but I am ok with that. As long as I stick with my trading plan like I have been this month I will continue to find success. I am very confident going forward and especially so since I know on Monday morning I will have written the easy language code to generate a simple signal that says to enter or not.

Best to you

Robert

 

[trader#21]

Yupp RW, I too was fading for previous two days.

I had conflicting information and as a result I did scale back which ended up buying near the HOD to cover. Anyway it has the classic blow off top and it has over a 80% chance of trading below the closing price enough for me to walk away without a further loss and perhaps getting some back.

Honestly my biggest/worst losses have been off the blow off top. That's a point where one can win big or lose big.

A point here is how wild a stock can get. I had a very frustrating time with ITMN this week. FINL scared me similarly I depend a lot on my Level2 read for such stocks.

But the best part is always following the plan. IF one follows the plan, there is space for systematic improvement and adaptation. If one does not, the entire learning process gets messed up.

I am very confident going forward and especially so since I know on Monday morning I will have written the easy language code to generate a simple signal that says to enter or not.

Wishing you good faith in your work.

Cheers

 

[Robert Weinstein]

xie xie ni sook

I actually was trading before that in 1984 or 83. I don't recall the year I started.

Anyway the real progress has been made since 2000 when I took a whole different attitude toward trading.

Best to you

Robert

Quote from ~~~:

if my memory is still working i think we met in the summer of 1989 in water street ... (i remembered watching the tiananmen square's incident on T.V during my summer school holidays) i had no idea you already started trading in 1989?? wow ... i started trading much, much, much.... later than you.

anyway, those were the crazy, foolish, naive, silly, care-free days ...

so we known each other for about 21 years now (we lost contact for 18 years) but still you are my old buddy lol

glad to hear you're doing better in trading and pls send my regards to your wife and your 3 boys ... if you and your family are visiting the shanghai world expo 2010 ... just let me know ... don't have to worry about booking hotel etc... coz you have a friend in asia and baidu helps her to buy properties in china and Japan... and she's a great host to all her friends and their family from overseas.

 

[oraclewizard77]

Robert,

I think you are trading too much emotionally. If you are planning to increase size after having a good month that is fine. Wait till the month is over, and start the 1st day of the next month.

It makes no sense to me, that suddenly you would increase size on 2nd trade for that day. If you woke up with a plan that this was day to increase size, why would u not do it on the 1st stock?

Anyway, here is my advice, go back to your original size that you had for this week. Trade with that size for all of April to get used to it. If you continue to trade well for the entire month of April, then and only then increase size the 1st day of May. If you lose money on that day, go back to your original size for another 2 weeks. Then again, if you are doing well, increase size after that 2 weeks.

On Friday, I had 2 bad trades in the morning, then 4 winning trades after that real money then a 5th trade I did demo since Chaos was shorting the ES, and I decided that I did not want to take a trade against him, at the end of day, and that I was already over trading.

All trades were the same size. I don't plan on increase size unless the entire month of April, I start to see much improvement in holding my winners longer and not moving my stops.

On a trade in CL, as soon as I saw the market start to turn against me, and I knew the trade was bad, I killed it. The best traders know when to get out of their trades when they know the market has turned against them or they made a mistake. Chaos had a trade that went 7 points in his favor, but did not take a profit since he was working on letting his winner run. When it went all the way back to his original entry point, he took it off at break even instead of getting emotional and holding it over the weekend. I am not at that level. I would be so pissed at myself if I let a 7 point trade go all the way back against me, but a professional doesn't care.

 

[NoDoji]

Quote from oraclewizard77:

Chaos had a trade that went 7 points in his favor, but did not take a profit since he was working on letting his winner run. When it went all the way back to his original entry point, he took it off at break even instead of getting emotional and holding it over the weekend. I am not at that level. I would be so pissed at myself if I let a 7 point trade go all the way back against me, but a professional doesn't care.

If you let a 7 pt gain go all the way back to break even without taking something off the table, you should be pissed. A person who lets an ES trade go 7 pts in his/her favor without taking profits on at least part of the trade, on a day when the entire range was something like 10 pts is not a professional. On a 10 pt day, if price retraces 4 pts of a 7-pt gain, that's a serious red flag. At that point at the very least you take something off the table.

OW, where do you post your live trades?

 

[ChaosNSX]

Not that I really care to hear the answer, but since your calling me unprofessional you have my interest. The range for that day according to you was a 10 point day. I would like to know how you knew beforefore hand it was only going to be a 10 point day. Also how did you come to the assumption I am a daytrader? Really if you are going to label someone as unprofessional ... Well I'd advise you not toss to toss that term around as some of us have worked hard all our lives for it and to keep it. Except when talking about data fees i'm unprofessional all the way.

Quote from NoDoji:

If you let a 7 pt gain go all the way back to break even without taking something off the table, you should be pissed. A person who lets an ES trade go 7 pts in his/her favor without taking profits on at least part of the trade, on a day when the entire range was something like 10 pts is not a professional. On a 10 pt day, if price retraces 4 pts of a 7-pt gain, that's a serious red flag. At that point at the very least you take something off the table.

OW, where do you post your live trades?

 

[NoDoji]

Quote from ChaosNSX:

Not that I really care to hear the answer, but since your calling me unprofessional you have my interest. The range for that day according to you was a 10 point day. I would like to know how you knew beforefore hand it was only going to be a 10 point day. Also how did you come to the assumption I am a daytrader? Really if you are going to label someone as unprofessional ... Well I'd advise you not toss to toss that term around as some of us have worked hard all our lives for it and to keep it. Except when talking about data fees i'm unprofessional all the way.

Chaos, if this was not a day trade, then I apologize. That is very different, and I myself allowed two swing trade winners stop me out at break even this year as well, because I was looking for a greater profit target. Obviously there's no way to know the full range of a day, but a day trader who takes nothing out of a 7 pt move, I believe needs some guidance in trade management.

 

[ChaosNSX]

Fair enough, good thing I didn't mention if it wasn't the weekend I was actually willing to let the p&l blink negative again. :eek:

 

[jajuanm2]

Just in case you did not know, chaos is the real deal. He calls out all his trade entries and targets in his trading room. It's crazy that people are taking advice from Oracle a guy who has a magic indicator and switches from sim trades to win trade every other trade. Chaos only income comes from trading and he does not trade everyday. He waits and waits and waits and then he strikes for 10-20 points at a time about twice week.

Quote from NoDoji:

Chaos, if this was not a day trade, then I apologize. That is very different, and I myself allowed two swing trade winners stop me out at break even this year as well, because I was looking for a greater profit target. Obviously there's no way to know the full range of a day, but a day trader who takes nothing out of a 7 pt move, I believe needs some guidance in trade management.